Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

[SilverRocket]

16 hours ago, Philip said:

I think I got it from Wikipedia long time ago. I remember being shocked that such a mediocre performer could retire with so much money

Millwood had 30 rWAR, 46 fWAR. He was serviceable for a long time and ate innings. Adam Jones type value.

[Oriole1940]

In answer to the question of   Can Means become the Orioles Kuechel?        My 3 word answer is         By All Means.

[LA2]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:52 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Like '98 or '99.  Maybe 2000.  All I know is that when he got to Baltimore that was way in the rearview mirror and he was doo doo brown.

That's not quite fair. I remember Millwood being either a hard-luck loser on a weak team or mismanaged by good ol' Dave Trembley for the first third of that season.

Just checked the game log: after 11 starts, his ERA was 3.89 and yet his W/L was 0-5. It sort of collapsed after that (he was audibly displeased about the lack of run support), but even thereafter there were some sparkling games, including a few near-shutouts (five starts of 1 ER or less; six of 2 ER or less). I remember thinking he hadn't been a bad acquisition.

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, LA2 said:

That's not quite fair. I remember Millwood being either a hard-luck loser on a weak team or mismanaged by good ol' Dave Trembley for the first third of that season.

Just checked the game log: after 11 starts, his ERA was 3.89 and yet his W/L was 0-5. It sort of collapsed after that (he was audibly displeased about the lack of run support), but even thereafter there were some sparkling games, including a few near-shutouts (five starts of 1 ER or less; six of 2 ER or less). I remember thinking he hadn't been a bad acquisition.

Then how'd he end up with a 5.10 ERA?  That's Mike Wright territory.

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Then how'd he end up with a 5.10 ERA?  That's Mike Wright territory.

In fairness to all low-5 ERA guys, Wright has a career ERA just under 6.00. 

[TheOtherRipken]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Then how'd he end up with a 5.10 ERA?  That's Mike Wright territory.

Thats a full point better than Mike DeJean

[LA2]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Then how'd he end up with a 5.10 ERA?  That's Mike Wright territory.

I see that you have a pretty wide sense of "territory." Wright's season ERAs with the Os:

9.45, 5.55, 5.76, 5.79, 6.04

I explained that Millwood's season took a turn for the worse after his first 11 starts, but it wasn't a permanent dive. He had a lousy June and July, but his performances in April, May, August, and September would be a very welcome addition to the O's rotation. For example, in his last *10* starts, he pitched 66.67 innings (just under 7 IP/start) and allowed only 24 earned runs, i.e. a 3.09 ERA.

3.89 in his first 11 starts, 3.09 in his last ten. That's about twice as good as Wright and, even at the age of 35, he was able to pitch 190.67 innings, a total Wright (in his present incarnation) will never begin to come close to. That's not "doo doo brown," as you put it.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, LA2 said:

I see that you have a pretty wide sense of "territory." Wright's season ERAs with the Os:

9.45, 5.55, 5.76, 5.79, 6.04

I explained that Millwood's season took a turn for the worse after his first 11 starts. He had a lousy June and July. His performances in Aoril, May, August, and September would be a welcome addition to the O's rotation. For example, in his last *10* starts, he pitched 66.67 innings (just under 7 IP/start) and allowed only 24 earned runs, i.e. a 3.09 ERA.

Well if I have a wide sense of territory, I don't know what to say about cherry picking 11 starts and ignoring the total body of work.  

I'll grant you that Millwood had some good stretches, I'm not ignoring that but I also don't think that's a good argument.  Daniel CaBBrera had good stretches, for example.  Most pitchers that last 16 years in the big leagues as Millwood did will have good stretches like that or even good complete seasons.

However, I can't look at someone who lead the league in losses (even though losses can be a misleading stat, I am assuming his run support was terrible..as you initially noticed, he was a hard luck loser) with a 5.10 ERA (and his FIP wasn't far off at 4.86 so we can't blame the defense too much for that) and think that they had anywhere near a "decent season".  Oddly enough, he was a tough luck winner as 2 out of his 4 wins came in the June/July bad stretch that he had.  He was near the end of the line by the time he got here, he only made 37 starts after his season in Baltimore.  

We can agree to disagree.  I see where you're coming from and acknowledge it wasn't all bad when he was here.

[Frobby]

On 5/12/2019 at 9:36 PM, Philip said:

 Kevin Millwood retired with $130 million in the bank, and a completely, splendidly mediocre record as a baseball pitcher.

Gotta tip your cap.

 

On 5/12/2019 at 9:43 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Can't believe that guy won a Cy Young.  Rode that season all the way to that 130 million, I believe.  I think people thought Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine would rub off on him and he'd be great.  That's how good THOSE guys were.  They got Kevin Millwood PAID.  

I think Millwood was a lot better than mediocre.    Maintaining a 106 ERA+ over a 16 year career isn’t easy.   He made 443 starts, 87th on the all time list.   

Others already pointed out that his career earnings were $90 mm, not $130 mm.    Compare him to, say, AJ Burnett, who started 430 games at 104 ERA+, yet made $144 mm.     Or James Shields, 405 starts, 102 ERA+, $114 mm.

Millwood wasn’t great, but he was pretty darned good.    And not overpaid compared to his peers, IMO.

[HowAboutThat]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I think Millwood was a lot better than mediocre.    Maintaining a 106 ERA+ over a 16 year career isn’t easy.   He made 443 starts, 87th on the all time list.   

Others already pointed out that his career earnings were $90 mm, not $130 mm.    Compare him to, say, AJ Burnett, who started 430 games at 104 ERA+, yet made $144 mm.     Or James Shields, 405 starts, 102 ERA+, $114 mm.

Millwood wasn’t great, but he was pretty darned good.    And not overpaid compared to his peers, IMO.

Well, I think that most of his virtue was accumulated in his early days, later on he was just about average.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, I think that most of his virtue was accumulated in his early days, later on he was just about average.

True for many of us.

[HowAboutThat]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

True for many of us.

Haha That made me laugh.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, I think that most of his virtue was accumulated in his early days, later on he was just about average.

 

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

True for many of us.

 

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

Haha That made me laugh.

Yep, pretty funny.   And true for many ballplayers as well as the rest of us, too.   

[bobmc]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

True for many of us.

LOL - as I look back upon my life (at 75), I was thinking about a WAR scheme for life.  @Frobby and @DrungoHazewood could dream up such a chart with comparable quantities to BABIP, UZR, OPS, SLG, OBP, xFIP, etc. with life events, I am sure.  But without those, I am seeing a long downward trend (with slight adjustments for park effects, humidity, etc.) for sure, as @Can of Corn has alluded above.  I started strong before puberty - good grades, popular, in plays, singing in the choir, etc.  I had a few cringeworthy moments, but all good and "blame it on youth" could apply.  Then as I reached my teens, things started to downslide socially.  I was athletic but started to see a shyness, some ego challenges and cringeworthy events that have stained me (although not with many of my friends).  I never dated in hs, never went to any proms and was definitely rolling with a negative WAR.  (Kind of like how Trey's defense hurts his overall WAR) .  I blossomed in college, well except for the grades, courses consumed and education gained intellectually.  I became more socially aware, albeit still sitting in the back row of classes and using friends to assist me with the social intellect.  At work for Uncle in DC, I was definitely a slacker but worked hard to get by and became a "journeyman's journeyman".  I "failed" in two marriages but learned a lot from both.  I was ego-driven (as I sought to catch up for lost time) but found the right woman, lucked out and the WAR has actually improved somewhat post retirement (now measuring 22 + years!).  One of my friends jokingly said his epitaph might say, "A work in progress".  I'm thinking mine might be, "We give up!".  I might get back to replacement but I have my doubts.   

 

TMI?  @scOtt or @weams will know ..... 

 

And now back to big John Means and Dallas - sorry for the hijack - Means is for real.  His WAR is trending up and with his back to the wall, he is destin - er - bad choice - can be what he wants to be with his tools and intellect and "want-to", so yes I like his chances, arm slot and attitude!  I have no stats to cite other than all of the above good stuff.

[Frobby]

@bobmc, the idea of creating a personal WAR score is terrifying.   I don’t know when I had my peak (if ever), but it certainly isn’t now!   But hopefully some great times remain.