If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Cumberbundy]

 

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

Were those throws that good?    Didn’t look that special to me.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Were those throws that good?    Didn’t look that special to me.   

His pop time is better than MLB average.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

His pop time is better than MLB average.

Maybe they are.   But what about these ones in particular?   All I see is two throws where the runner was safe and the throws kind of tailed, especially the second one.   I don’t have the ability to measure pop time accurately, but these two throws didn’t strike me as the best examples of Rutschman’s throwing abilities.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Maybe they are.   But what about these ones in particular?   All I see is two throws where the runner was safe and the throws kind of tailed, especially the second one.   I don’t have the ability to measure pop time accurately, but these two throws didn’t strike me as the best examples of Rutschman’s throwing abilities.   

I'm guessing they were from recent game footage and not meant as much as a highlight reel.  I'll agree that those two throws were not worthy of being singled out.

[Redskins Rick]

Draft that SS and turn him into the next CF here.

ESPN or SI ran a coumun the other day and it said today's SS is the next CF, like thats a new concept. :))

[Frobby]

Fangraphs Mock 2.0 has the Orioles picking Rutschman, but discusses the possibility that we pick Vaughn and use the saved money on other picks.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

[Cumberbundy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Were those throws that good?    Didn’t look that special to me.   

I had the same impression as you, but I don’t watch any throws from that angle, so I figured I was missing something that would be more apparent others. I figure it was pointed out for some reason. 

 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

23 hours ago, atomic said:

Yeah.  A lot of great players picked in the second round too.   It is surprising that baseball is so bad at identifying who to draft there. In the NHL there are rarely busts at #1 overall and everyone is drafted at 18.  In Baseball a lot of the picks are college players and thus older so you would think they would have more success than they do. 

Are they, though?  In something that is naturally super difficult are we sure that the success rate we see isn't indicative of being at least somewhat good at what they are doing?  This is a bit dated, but shows the smooth decline of average WAR by draft position as you get later in the first round:

https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

[Cumberbundy]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

 

Quote

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
We’re sticking with Rutschman here, but other teams still think there’s a chance new GM Mike Elias will, as he did with Houston, find a way to make an underslot deal with this pick to acquire more talent later. Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn may be emerging as a fit for this, if the Orioles are uncomfortable with Rutschman’s medical (he had a lower leg bruise, and back and shoulder soreness in 2018, and a shoulder injury prevented him from playing quarterback during his sophomore year of high school) or if they think the bonus he’ll command will undercut the rest of their class. As you’ll see below, Vaughn slides in this scenario. You could argue Vaughn belongs in a tier of his own behind Rutschman, so signing him for the slot value of pick four or five could mean reallocating as much as $3 million to other picks, which could be a very attractive option for Baltimore. Early rumors that Georgia high school SS C.J. Abrams would be an option for this type of sequence seem to have died.

 

[Cumberbundy]

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-2019-potential-no-1-pick-oregon-state-catcher-adley-rutschman-has-all-star-potential/

Quote

Predictably, Rutschman will become the best catching prospect in baseball the moment he signs his professional contract. Joey Bart, whom the San Francisco Giants drafted No. 2 last year, would be the fiercest competition -- but Rutschman, by all accounts, is a superior hitter. Almost by default, Rutschman is also likely to be ranked in the top 25 or so on most universal lists, as well as No. 1 on Orioles-specific lists.

 

[LookinUp]

I voted the second option and immediately regretted it. Then I stopped regretting it. Now I'm firmly in between 2 and 3.

I want to be the guy who gives all of the benefit of the doubt to the scouting director turned GM who is obviously better qualified for his job than me. So I'd like to pick #3 in this poll. I also have a fear of drafting a catcher so high. Their peaks are shorter and they play fewer innings. With that said, catchers are incredibly valuable. Great hitting catchers are somewhat rare and the best prospect in this draft is Rutschman seemingly by far. 

I'm generally supportive of the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush theory of things. You *might* be able to net better talent if you go underslot at 1, but you have a really good idea of what you're getting if you just stick with Rutschman. 

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm guessing they were from recent game footage and not meant as much as a highlight reel.  I'll agree that those two throws were not worthy of being singled out.

Looks like last summers Team USA. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Looks like last summers Team USA. 

Thanks for the info.

Really odd choice of throws if that is the case.

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Thanks for the info.

Really odd choice of throws if that is the case.

Thought same thing.