TT: Time to demote Smith Jr. and bring up Stewart

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I want to see Hays in  CF  in the near future.  

Mancini is going to play right field vs righties with Davis playing 1B vs most righties.

Santander plays most days.  In left field vs righties and right field vs lefties.

That really only leaves left field vs lefties.   That is probably Wilkerson    Stewart is a lefty batter so I don't really see how he gets at bats.

I am fine with keeping Smith as a bench player the rest of the season and using his option next year.

Stewart needs someone to get injured or traded to open  up space.  I am fine with not seeing him until the rosters expand.

 

I'm not sure why, but it appears they have been mostly playing Williams in CF with Hays in RF. If we're looking for a CF to catch the ball, I don't know that Hays is the next man up.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, esmd said:

I was actually referring to Smith as being a 4th OFer type at best.  Though it certainly wouldn't surprise me if that's what Stewart turns out to be.  I agree that Stewart should get the playing time going forward.

Smith May be able to make adjustments that he hasn’t made yet. What’s the rush to push him out of town?

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

In a year where the Orioles must evaluate guys for the future, the evaluations should be in for Dwight Smith Jr. and it's time to give DJ Stewart everyday at bats the rest of the season to evaluate him. Smith has obviously slumped badly with the stick .150/.237/.260/.497 over his last 114 PAs, but his defense has been awful by any metric.

Smith Jr. now has a -0.9 WAR thanks to his -1.2 dWAR and 0.0 oWAR. By statcast standards, he's in the 2% of MLB in Outs above average (OAA) mainly due to his 4% outfielder jump. 

Offensively, while his hard hit % is at 52%, his exit velocity (42%), xBA (30%), xwOBA (20%) are all well below major leaguer average.

Even though I said back at the time that the Orioles didn't need Smith Jr. because they had Yastrzemski at the time (.259/.303/.500/.803 and has been worth 1.1 rWAR with SF), I understood them wanting to give the younger (by two years) Smith a chance. Well, 317 PAs have gone by it's fairly clear that Smith Jr. is not part of the future outfield equation.

While Stewart hasn't exactly lit it up since going back to Norfolk, at a year younger than Smith Jr., it's time to give Stewart those everyday at bats in LF and see how he looks. 

I had forgotten that Smith had an option, which makes the decision simplicity itself.

Bring up AJ and throw in him into the fray. Gonna happen anyway. Why not today? Let the boy play? Whaddaya say?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Smith May be able to make adjustments that he hasn’t made yet. What’s the rush to push him out of town?

Because he's not very good even if he is hitting.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

See Service Time at this link.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/

So its the 34 days of service time the Hays has plus the difference between 187 - 172 which is 15 day.  Maybe its 16 days to be safe.

Ok, I understood the rule but I didn't understand how this particular scenario addresses it

172 is the most days a player can accrue in a single season, but it seemed to me that a player that accrues over 172 days across two seasons should not necessarily qualify as having exceeded one season (mainly because they haven't played a full season if a season is 187 days). I understand the reason for 187-172 to prevent players from being brought up on the second day of the season (although it doesn't stop teams from bringing guys up 16 days into the season).

But the fact that 172 days is defined as a full season in the CBA means that you are correct.

So call it May 20th or so for Hays (although I think this would be inviting an MLBPA challenge and I don't think it will happen!)

 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, atomic said:

Hays already has played 20 games in the majors.  Does it really make a difference in service time if they bring him up in September as opposed to start the season next year?

 

48 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It does not. Unless they are going to wait until mid-June 2020 to bring up Hays, the service time die is cast. Tony's worry that Hays may help the Orioles win and get the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick is a valid concern, but it is, in my opinion, too cynical of a reason to deny him MLB at-bats.

Not that I’m necessarily advocating playing service time games with Hays, but your statement is incorrect.    Assuming Hays is not called up this year, he would only need to be held out until mid-May next year, not mid-June, to avoid having accumulated a full year of service by the end of 2020.     If he’s called up this year, every day of service would be one day beyond mid-May they’d have to wait next year, if they were playing that game.    

That said, I think it’s largely academic now.   Service time might have been a consideration this year if Hays had been healthy and productive in April/May and the O’s had been trying to keep him from reaching a full year in 2019.   But that ship has sailed, and Hays will be 24 next season.    I think any call-up decisions will be based strictly on development and merit at this point. 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

 

Not that I’m necessarily advocating playing service time games with Hays, but your statement is incorrect.    Assuming Hays is not called up this year, he would only need to be held out until mid-May next year, not mid-June, to avoid having accumulated a full year of service by the end of 2020.     If he’s called up this year, every day of service would be one day beyond mid-May they’d have to wait next year, if they were playing that game.    

That said, I think it’s largely academic now.   Service time might have been a consideration this year if Hays had been healthy and productive in April/May and the O’s had been trying to keep him from reaching a full year in 2019.   But that ship has sailed, and Hays will be 24 next season.    I think any call-up decisions will be based strictly on development and merit at this point. 

Yep, we worked that out together later in the thread. 

[Frobby]

Just now, MurphDogg said:

Yep, we worked that out together later in the thread. 

Yeah, I saw (after I posted).

[Philip]

If Hays is 25 who cares about service time? He’ll be a FA at age 31. That’s a perfect time to move on anyway. Does anyone really think the FO would resign him anyway. Bring him up or don’t, but don’t decide based on service time.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

If Hays is 25 who cares about service time? He’ll be a FA at age 31. That’s a perfect time to move on anyway. Does anyone really think the FO would resign him anyway. Bring him up or don’t, but don’t decide based on service time.

He’s not 25.   He turned 24 earlier this month and his “baseball age” this year is 23.    Assuming he earned a full year of service next season, he’d be 30 years old when hitting free agency.    For a good player, the age 30 season is a pretty nice one for the team to control.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

He’s not 25.   He turned 24 earlier this month and his “baseball age” this year is 23.    Assuming he earned a full year of service next season, he’d be 30 years old when hitting free agency.    For a good player, the age 30 season is a pretty nice one for the team to control.  

Fine, extend him when you determine he's going to be a good player.  Problem solved.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You are right, for some reason I had it in my head he was out of options. I'm fine if they just want to demote him instead of DFA him, but I'd DFA him once I needed a 40-man spot. I'll change the title.

Yea, he'd be on the "at risk" part of the 40-man, in my mind at least.  That said, according to roster resource we're only at 38 right now, so he'd be safe for the time being.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

OK, why were Santander and Sisco promoted?

Sisco was promoted because he had 753 AAA PAs so it was time to evaluate him at the major league level. Santander has nearly 300 AAA PAs and was up because of a need in the corner and was on the 40-man roster, but his hitting has kept him on the roster.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

It would be 187-34 I would think, so to get an extra season would require the first 35 days of next season in the minors. So I was mistaken when I said June, I was thinking it was 15 or so plus 35, but it would only be 35. So call it May 5th or so.

That said, it would be begging for a challenge from the Union if they were to hold him back that long. To not bring him up in September would be pretty obvious unless he were to get injured.

You're math may be right, I did mine quick. As for the Union, they have nothing they can challenge because it's in the rules. It's a big reason though why MLB is now starting negotiations early with the union in hopes of addressing these things before a work stoppage.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

See Service Time at this link.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/

So its the 34 days of service time the Hays has plus the difference between 187 - 172 which is 15 day.  Maybe its 16 days to be safe.

That's what I thought. that's why I was saying if they don't bring him up this year and then wait a couple of weeks he would only have one full year of service time at the end of next season. I feel this is the course of action the Orioles will take with him which is why I don't think we will see him.

Why would anyone want to see him before then and potentially lose him a year earlier to FA when he's potentially a really good player and the team is potentially a contender? Add in the fact that no matter how much it sucks to lose, losing is better for the franchise long term. 

I don't know the difference between the #1 and #2 overall pick next year, but I do know I want #1 no matter.