Oakland - Did Billy Beane Go Too Far?

[Frobby]

The A's are in free fall since Beane jettisoned most of his rotation. As of July 7 (the day Harden was traded) the A's were 49-41, in contention for the wild card. Since then, they are 5-22.

I know Beane famously was quoted as saying you should either be doing something great, or preparing to do so, but did he go too far this time?

[Mackus]

No, I still think he did the right thing. The team wasn't gonna win the WC, so there was no benefit to keeping Harden and Blanton. They got a decent package for Harden considering his frailty and a phenomenal one for Blanton considering his mediocrity.

The organization is in much better shape to make the playoffs now than they were on July 7th, just not this season.

[NewMarketSean]

I wish the O's had the balls to make moves like that.

Some people want to keep this team together and we're in last place, 5 games under .500.

[wildcard]

The Hangout loves 5-22 as long as there are young players involved.

49-41 is a .544 won percentage. If they continued that pacr until today through 119 game they would have been 65-54. That would be three games behind Boston, and one game behind the White Sox. They would be third in the Wild Card race with 7 weeks to go. Manny is gone, Walkfield is out. Boston is look for pitching. Chicago just fell out for first place.

Beane may have out smarted himself this time. Good point Frobby.

[Ruzious]

He should have paid Harden - if he had any chance. The guy is showing he's a legit #1 pitcher. And he just ends up with players the O's didn't deem enough for Brian Roberts - unless the kid catcher - Josh Donaldson - turns out to be something. Gallagher has looked pretty bad so far - and Murton and Patterson didn't have significant trade value. You gotta get an Adam Jones type prospect for someone like Harden, imo.

But yeah, the Blanton trade was very smart.

[DrungoHazewood]

The A's have won before, and they'll win again. They're not blinded by a .500 record in July. They won't be fooled into mortgaging the future and forgoing a good trade to hope against hope for an improbable run at the wildcard.

Beane doesn't differentiate between 83 wins and 70 wins. And the A's are a better organization for it.

[wildcard]

The A's have won before, and they'll win again. They're not blinded by a .500 record in July. They won't be fooled into mortgaging the future and forgoing a good trade to hope against hope for an improbable run at the wildcard.

Beane doesn't differentiate between 83 wins and 70 wins. And the A's are a better organization for it.

Apparently Beane doesn't differentiate between 90 and 70 wins either. And this year the A's are a losing organization for it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Apparently Beane doesn't differentiate between 90 and 70 wins either. And this year the A's are a losing organization for it.

They weren't going to win 90 games this year. They weren't going to win the wildcard, and they probably weren't going to win much of anything in the future relying on expensive, injured and/or mediocre pitchers.

The A's are willing to lose the battle to win the war. The O's have often been more than willing to fight to the death to claim small victories in one battle, only to be obliterated in the war. MacPhail seems to be changing that, if only somewhat.

[Sanfran327]

They weren't going to win 90 games this year. They weren't going to win the wildcard, and they probably weren't going to win much of anything in the future relying on expensive, injured and/or mediocre pitchers.

The A's are willing to lose the battle to win the war. The O's have often been more than willing to fight to the death to claim small victories in one battle, only to be obliterated in the war. MacPhail seems to be changing that, if only somewhat.

It comes down to whether or not you're ok with losing in the first round of the playoffs every few years and having a bunch of crappy teams in between. I'd hate to be an A's fan. We will be releavnt much sooner than the A's will. And by relevant, I mean World Series contenders, not WC contenders.

[Flip217]

It comes down to whether or not you're ok with losing in the first round of the playoffs every few years and having a bunch of crappy teams in between. I'd hate to be an A's fan. We will be relevant much sooner than the A's will. And by relevant, I mean World Series contenders, not WC contenders.

I don't know -- once you make the playoffs, anything can happen. Two good starting pitchers can get you to the next round. A freak injury can dash your hopes. Season long performers suddenly go ice cold, bench players suddenly hit like there's no tomorrow...I think Beane has been the victim of bad luck more than anything. Isn't this addressed in "Baseball Between the Numbers"? An essay called "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Sh*T Work In The Playoffs?" or something?

I like the A's and how they run things, but I hope you're right in that we'll be winning it all before they do.

[DrungoHazewood]

It comes down to whether or not you're ok with losing in the first round of the playoffs every few years and having a bunch of crappy teams in between. I'd hate to be an A's fan. We will be releavnt much sooner than the A's will. And by relevant, I mean World Series contenders, not WC contenders.

I would much, much, much, much rather have an O's team with the records of Beane's A's than the records of the Orioles over that same period. If I were forced to root for a small market team I would rather root for one run by Billy Beane than almost anyone else.

Counting on the Orioles to be relevant "much sooner" than the A's is wild speculation, at best. By track record you can't logically come to that conclusion at all.

You do realize that success in the playoffs is almost totally luck, right? The best teams win 2/3rds of their games, and the worst playoff teams win 9/16ths. Any playoff matchup is basically a crapshoot, a coin flip. The best teams of all time would only win the modern MLB playoff system 30% or 40% of the time. It's not character, it's not even really skill. It's who's hot, who's rested, and who's lucky.

[Frobby]

I would much, much, much, much rather have an O's team with the records of Beane's A's than the records of the Orioles over that same period. If I were forced to root for a small market team I would rather root for one run by Billy Beane than almost anyone else.

Counting on the Orioles to be relevant "much sooner" than the A's is wild speculation, at best. By track record you can't logically come to that conclusion at all.

You do realize that success in the playoffs is almost totally luck, right? The best teams win 2/3rds of their games, and the worst playoff teams win 9/16ths. Any playoff matchup is basically a crapshoot, a coin flip. The best teams of all time would only win the modern MLB playoff system 30% or 40% of the time. It's not character, it's not even really skill. It's who's hot, who's rested, and who's lucky.

I agree with everything you said here. My opening post was merely questioning whether Beane made the right call this time around, not whether he has been a good GM in general. Obviously he has done a great job, despite the fact that his teams haven't fared well in the playoffs.

[Sports Guy]

Of course he made the right call...He recognized that while his team may have won 85-88 games, it still wasn't going to be enough to make the playoffs and that they weren't likely to be much better over the next several years.

It was the smart thing and it would be great if the Orioles had the same wisdom and intelligence over the last several years.

[davearm]

It comes down to whether or not you're ok with losing in the first round of the playoffs every few years and having a bunch of crappy teams in between. I'd hate to be an A's fan. We will be releavnt much sooner than the A's will. And by relevant, I mean World Series contenders, not WC contenders.

The O's have had one of the worst pitching staffs in the bigleagues over the last few years. I think we'd all agree that the O's aren't experiencing the World Series without a ticket unless/until their pitching improves dramatically.

Projecting guys like Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, etc. to turn that situation completely around is awfully premature. Some subset of the O's pitching prospects should develop into valuable contributors, but which ones, and how big that contribution, is purely speculative at this point. Classic case of counting unhatched chickens.

Meanwhile, the A's actually have a pretty impressive young pitching staff, led by a bunch of guys that have already had some success at the bigleague level.

[Mackus]

It comes down to whether or not you're ok with losing in the first round of the playoffs every few years and having a bunch of crappy teams in between. I'd hate to be an A's fan. We will be releavnt much sooner than the A's will. And by relevant, I mean World Series contenders, not WC contenders.

The A's teams that lost in the 1st round were WS contenders, things just didn't break their way. Its ignorant to accuse Beane of building teams that are able to be the best team in the AL but somehow not work in the playoffs, especially when his teams were built around the thing that works best in the playoffs, strong starting pitching.