Who Will Have the Higher Trade Value This Offseason, Alberto or Villar?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

And the on base mistakes? Are they a minus win? 

More like +1.3-.3=1.

We might remember the bad more than the good, it doesn't mean they happened as often.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

More like +1.3-.3=1.

We might remember the bad more than the good, it doesn't mean they happened as often.

I can see that. Good info. 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Not analytically. Not in a quantifiable way like taking an extra walk a week or not making a bonehead play a week. 

The funds were the monetary difference. The Analytics guys factor that too. Also the team control issue. 

At the end of the day, Villar is a good candidate for a mid-season trade for a team who really needs an impact MI bat. He's a proven major leaguer. 

No team is giving up a better prospect for Alberto than Villar. Why? Because he has almost no chance of repeating, his exit velocity is garbage bless his heart, and he can't hit for power. He's a great flier to take, sure, mostly because he's a solid glove. But he's got one single year of track record that isn't backed up in peripherals at all. He does make contact and he does hit lefties. I'm not saying he's got NO value. Just that he won't command the same caliber of player that Villar will. The ability to play shortstop is HUGE here IMO. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

At the end of the day, Villar is a good candidate for a mid-season trade for a team who really needs an impact MI bat. He's a proven major leaguer. 

 

The Orioles will have paid about 4.5 million for that possibility. 

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

Not analytically. Not in a quantifiable way like taking an extra walk a week or not making a bonehead play a week. 

The funds were the monetary difference. The Analytics guys factor that too. Also the team control issue. 

Taking the extra base or scoring from first is definitely quantifiable. His mistakes included, he added more value on the bases than anyone in baseball.

 

[weams]

17 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Taking the extra base or scoring from first is definitely quantifiable. His mistakes included, he added more value on the bases than anyone in baseball.

 

I guess that is why they do the math. I would not have perceived that.

[interloper]

 

29 minutes ago, weams said:

The Orioles will have paid about 4.5 million for that possibility. 

And that's... not a lot at all for a shortstop who can play every day, will likely be in the 2.0 WAR range, and could net you an upside-y young player or two. They're paying Alex Cobb $14,000,000 to hopefully just do ANYthing in 2020 and play at most 30/162 games.

Villar is a nice, safe player. You don't mind paying a guy like that if you're in the Orioles' position. 

[LookinUp]

27 minutes ago, weams said:

The Orioles will have paid about 4.5 million for that possibility. 

This isn't a bad take.

Is it "worth it" to pay $4.5 million for the opportunity to get a couple of B- prospects? I'm not sure what the math says about expected future value, but if the O's could flip him for, say, one B- prospect this offseason, I think the math may work out better.

We'd have $4.5 million more, but one fewer prospect. 

I have no idea how I would handle that conundrum.

[weams]

Just now, LookinUp said:

This isn't a bad take.

Is it "worth it" to pay $4.5 million for the opportunity to get a couple of B- prospects? I'm not sure what the math says about expected future value, but if the O's could flip him for, say, one B- prospect this offseason, I think the math may work out better.

We'd have $4.5 million more, but one fewer prospect. 

I have no idea how I would handle that conundrum.

I'm not sure I do either. But I'll tell you - we did not offer Victor Victor 4.5 million. Nor should we have. 

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Villar is a nice, safe player. You don't mind paying a guy like that if you're in the Orioles' position. 

Actually, if there's a team that might not want to pay for such a player, the O's would be on the short list. Elias isn't interested in 70 wins. 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, weams said:

Yeah. I get your feelings. But there is no quantifiable vale. No one will pay for that. Not with the new way that baseball is being evaluated. 

Other teams won't pay for that fun factor.  Besides. Alberto is tons of fun!

It’s just not true that the value of baserunning is not quantifiable and that teams won’t pay for it.   It’s just that the value of baserunning isn’t very big in comparison with other factors.   For example, per BB-ref, the difference between the best baserunning team and the worst was about 21 runs, while the difference between the best and worst hitting teams was 338 runs, and the difference between the best and worst defense was 136 runs.    So, baserunning effects are small compared to other factors.   But you can certainly measure them and pay what they’re worth for them.   

[weams]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

 

And that's... not a lot at all for a shortstop who can play every day, will likely be in the 2.0 WAR range, and could net you an upside-y young player or two. They're paying Alex Cobb $14,000,000 to hopefully just do ANYthing in 2020 and play at most 30/162 games.

Villar is a nice, safe player. You don't mind paying a guy like that if you're in the Orioles' position. 

I think that my issue is that I do not believe that the Orioles wish to pay any money to any nice players for the next two seasons. I guess I could be wrong. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s just not true that the value of baserunning is not quantifiable and that teams won’t pay for it.   It’s just that the value of baserunning isn’t very big in comparison with other factors.   For example, per BB-ref, the difference between the best baserunning team and the worst was about 21 runs, while the difference between the best and worst hitting teams was 338 runs, and the difference between the best and worst defense was 136 runs.    So, baserunning effects are small compared to other factors.   But you can certainly measure them and pay what they’re worth for them.   

You parsed that very well. Thanks. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s just not true that the value of baserunning is not quantifiable and that teams won’t pay for it.   It’s just that the value of baserunning isn’t very big in comparison with other factors.   For example, per BB-ref, the difference between the best baserunning team and the worst was about 21 runs, while the difference between the best and worst hitting teams was 338 runs, and the difference between the best and worst defense was 136 runs.    So, baserunning effects are small compared to other factors.   But you can certainly measure them and pay what they’re worth for them.   

I think what I said was not in anyway quantifiable was the fan fun factor. 

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, weams said:

And the on base mistakes? Are they a minus win? 

Of course.    Those are included in the calculation.