Brocail, Flores let go

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

- the removal of Dylan Bundy (2019 ERA 4.79, ERA+ 98) and the addition of Alex Cobb (2020 ERA 4.30, ERA+ 106)

- speaking of Mr. Bundy, his improvement in results in 2020 with another organization based on a change in pitch mix (as well as opponents) is not a good reflection on our pitching coach - especially if it were determined that the pitch mix change was something that should have been implemented last year based on available data.  Not sure of the results of other pitchers who left the organization.

I will be very interested to see how Bundy does going forward.  His fastball velocity was off about a mph in '20, his BABIP was down 20 points and his HR/FB rate was less than half of the past two years, and his FB/GB numbers were pretty much the same.  Ks, BB were nearly identical.  So the primary thing was a lot fewer homers on a very similar number of FBs. 

It too early to tell if that even has a causal source.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I will be very interested to see how Bundy does going forward.  His fastball velocity was off about a mph in '20, his BABIP was down 20 points and his HR/FB rate was less than half of the past two years, and his FB/GB numbers were pretty much the same.  Ks, BB were nearly identical.  So the primary thing was a lot fewer homers on a very similar number of FBs. 

It too early to tell if that even has a causal source.

Bundy had a good 11-start short season.  But he was also really good in his first 11 starts in 2017 (2.89 ERA in 71.2 IP).    His performance degraded as that year went along.  This year, Bundy was dominant his first 4 starts (1.57 ERA) but more spotty in the final 7 (4.66 ERA), in which he had 3 pretty poor starts.  So, it’s really hard to know how he would have fared over 30ish starts.   

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bundy had a good 11-start short season.  But he was also really good in his first 11 starts in 2017 (2.89 ERA in 71.2 IP).    His performance degraded as that year went along.  This year, Bundy was dominant his first 4 starts (1.57 ERA) but more spotty in the final 7 (4.66 ERA), in which he had 3 pretty poor starts.  So, it’s really hard to know how he would have fared over 30ish starts.   

My assumption is that he's still the same pitcher who has done very similar things in 50 or 75 innings before.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My assumption is that he's still the same pitcher who has done very similar things in 50 or 75 innings before.

I do think he will be the same pitcher but he could put up better numbers due to his Park and the parks he gets to pitch in.

[DrungoHazewood]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do think he will be the same pitcher but he could put up better numbers due to his Park and the parks he gets to pitch in.

OPACY is a hitter's park and The Big A is neutral, so yea, he'll get some benefit. 

This year, strangely, he only pitched four road games, three in Oakland/Seattle's pitcher's parks.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

OPACY is a hitter's park and The Big A is neutral, so yea, he'll get some benefit. 

This year, strangely, he only pitched four road games, three in Oakland/Seattle's pitcher's parks.

I'm almost curious enough to see if the rotation was manipulated to line that up or if it was chance.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Obando said:

A name to keep an eye on for pitching coach is Brent Strom with the Astros.  I don’t know what his contract situation is, but he has strong ties to Elias, Sig, and Chris Holt from Houston, and even going back further to St. Louis with Elias & Sig.  Now that there is a new regime in Houston, Strom would likely be interested in coming to Baltimore to reunite with the people he knows best and are completely aligned with his pitching philosophy.  That all depends on his contract situation though.  I’m going to see if I can find out when Strom’s contract expires with the Astros, because if it’s up at the end of this year, I would not be surprised at all if he’s our next pitching coach.  Holt’s pitching philosophy was learned from Strom, and Holt is known to have named him The Stromfather (as a play on The Godfather) and had t-shirts created with The Stromfather and Strom’s face on it that was given to all the pitchers in the Astros system.  If we were able to bring Strom to Baltimore, that would be a huge pickup for our pitching staff (and pitching program throughout the system), and I can’t imagine Elias & Hyde would let Brocail go without having a replacement in mind.

Strom is signed through 2021.  And he is 71 years old.    Better stick with Holt as at the main pitching guy.

https://www.click2houston.com/sports/2020/07/28/astros-coaches-contracts-extended/

[nevadaO]

Sounds to me like it's Brocail who chose not to return. 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, nevadaO said:

Sounds to me like it's Brocail who chose not to return. 

I missed that.  Tell me why.

[nevadaO]

Just now, wildcard said:

I missed that.  Tell me why.

Just the wording of it. Perhaps I'm looking into that too much.

#orioles won't bring back third base coach Jose Flores. And pitching coach Doug Brocail not returning, per sources.

Why specify it that way instead of: #orioles won't bring back third base coach Jose Flores or pitching coach Doug Brocail.

Obviously one came from the O's side, announcing that they aren't retaining Flores. Just seems they would announce them both if both were decisions by the O's themselves.

Just conjecture on my part, thanks to the wording by Roch.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I missed that.  Tell me why.

The wording of the release.

Quote

#orioles won't bring back third base coach Jose Flores. And pitching coach Doug Brocail not returning, per sources.

Sentence one:  They won't bring back Flores.

Sentence two:  Brocail not returning.

It is pretty clear by the first sentence that the Orioles decided not to bring back Flores, the second sentence is not so clear.

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, nevadaO said:

Just the wording of it. Perhaps I'm looking into that too much.

#orioles won't bring back third base coach Jose Flores. And pitching coach Doug Brocail not returning, per sources.

Why specify it that way instead of: #orioles won't bring back third base coach Jose Flores or pitching coach Doug Brocail.

Obviously one came from the O's side, announcing that they aren't retaining Flores. Just seems they would announce them both if both were decisions by the O's themselves.

Just conjecture on my part, thanks to the wording by Roch.

From Roch's blog:

Quote

The Orioles aren’t going to bring back pitching coach Doug Brocail and third base coach/infield instructor Jose Flores, according to multiple industry sources.

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/brocail-and-flores-wont-return-to-orioles-coaching-staff.html

[Tony-OH]

I heard Brocail was not brought back, not that he didn't want to come back. Basically his two year contract was not renewed. 

[eddie83]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Strom is signed through 2021.  And he is 71 years old.    Better stick with Holt as at the main pitching guy.

https://www.click2houston.com/sports/2020/07/28/astros-coaches-contracts-extended/

I don’t care how old he is. 
That said nice find.  

[ThomasTomasz]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

So last year, Brocail oversaw one of the worst pitching staffs in the history of baseball, which posted a 5.59 ERA and destroyed the major league record for home runs allowed, and he was retained.    This year, the team ERA is over a run lower, at 4.51, and they let Brocail go.    Go figure.    

Could be a variety of factors playing into that.  ERA is a good stat, probably the best of all of what we call traditional stats, but it is still limited.  Due to some defensive improvements this year, it might be best to look at FIP to see how our pitchers performed.  They may also have their own expectations for how each pitcher should see improvement, and maybe enough pitchers didn't see improvement to justify keeping Brocail.  

The other point being brought up about the minor leagues being condensed and more coaches available is an interesting one.  Seeing Dylan Bundy succeed with Mickey Callaway also highlights the need for a great instructor who can translate things from analytics and communicate one-on-one with the player.  

This is a crucial hire to get right.