Farm System Rankings Baseball America #7 and Keith Law #18

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

Logically, it is possible to have a top system without international prospects; talent is talent no matter where it comes from.  However, I think his point is that since we have been solely relying on the draft for so long we simply are playing against a stacked deck as it relates to other teams.  Thus, we have to have a higher hit rate on our prospects since we have no shot at high end talent internationally, which is a recipe for a lack of depth.  I don't know if he's right for this year or not, but I believe he is saying that we are pulling from a shallower pool so our depth just isn't there, not that he is simply penalizing us for what he believes is an organizational failure and is slapping us on the wrist for it.

I agree ...But we are now playing in that market and our talent level is still the same regardless of origin. So because it lacks international players the talent isnt as good? Thats just stupid!

[StottyByNature]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree ...But we are now playing in that market and our talent level is still the same regardless of origin. So because it lacks international players the talent isnt as good? Thats just stupid!

I'm no expert and I can't speak for him, but I think he would say our top-end talent is good but we do not match the depth and upside of other organizations because we haven't been in the international market.  I know that trend is changing but we haven't been in on the "big fish" international prospects yet so that improvement in depth is probably a few years in the making still.

[Sports Guy]

Regardless of his logic, zero chance there are 16 better systems.  That’s just a lie.  Look at some of the teams he has ranked ahead of us.  How many of those teams would you trade Adley and GRod for every one of their top 15ish guys?  I bet that you would be hard pressed to find that many.

[StottyByNature]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Regardless of his logic, zero chance there are 16 better systems.  That’s just a lie.  Look at some of the teams he has ranked ahead of us.  How many of those teams would you trade Adley and GRod for every one of their top 15ish guys?  I bet that you would be hard pressed to find that many.

I agree.  He is clearly the outlier so the truth probably trends closer to the pack.  Of course, none of this really matters, it comes down to development and what happens on the field and in the GM office.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

I'm no expert and I can't speak for him, but I think he would say our top-end talent is good but we do not match the depth and upside of other organizations because we haven't been in the international market.  I know that trend is changing but we haven't been in on the "big fish" international prospects yet so that improvement in depth is probably a few years in the making still.

A couple things.

First off you have to weigh things heavier toward the top.  How much can you dock a farm system for not having as many guys, when fully developed, that you can pick off of the waiver wire and have them produce at roughly replacement level?  In most cases the top of the system is going to carry the future burden.

Secondly, this is the best depth the O's farm has had in quite some time.  Are the #15-25 guys in the Red's system actually better prospects?

I think KLaw used the lack of International prospects as an excuse to question the depth and lower the ranking.  I don't think he wanted to rank a system in the top 10 that didn't have an International presence on their list.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A couple things.

First off you have to weigh things heavier toward the top.  How much can you dock a farm system for not having as many guys, when fully developed, that you can pick off of the waiver wire and have them produce at roughly replacement level?  In most cases the top of the system is going to carry the future burden.

Secondly, this is the best depth the O's farm has had in quite some time.  Are the #15-25 guys in the Red's system actually better prospects?

I think KLaw used the lack of International prospects as an excuse to question the depth and lower the ranking.  I don't think he wanted to rank a system in the top 10 that didn't have an International presence on their list.

What’s funny about this is that the Os have had a good intl presence the last few years and had one of the better ranked classes this year.  
 

I get his point but it’s a dumb one overall.  Talent is talent, doesn’t matter where it comes from.  
 

I highly doubt Law knows much about any of the players outside the top 10-15 throughout any system in all of baseball.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What’s funny about this is that the Os have had a good intl presence the last few years and had one of the better ranked classes this year.  
 

I get his point but it’s a dumb one overall.  Talent is talent, doesn’t matter where it comes from.  
 

I highly doubt Law knows much about any of the players outside the top 10-15 throughout any system in all of baseball.  

I wouldn't say good.

This year was better but from what I've read they got two guys that were rated around ~30 in the class?  I'm not sure how that qualifies as being well ranked.  From what I've seen this years class is huge for the O's but is just putting them on equal footing with the other teams.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't say good.

This year was better but from what I've read they got two guys that were rated around ~30 in the class?  I'm not sure how that qualifies as being well ranked.  From what I've seen this years class is huge for the O's but is just putting them on equal footing with the other teams.

Badler said they had one of the best overall classes of any team.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Badler said they had one of the best overall classes of any team.  

Yea I saw that. 

Not sure how that matches up with the rankings (yes I know how you feel about rankings, but it isn't as if Badler isn't ranking them).  If you get two guys in the 28-35 range plus other folks below I'm not sure how that can be a top class.  Maybe he really likes one of the O's signees?

 

Did you see that Jasson is hitting the ball 117 MPH?

I sure how he has some holes in that swing.

[Absltgreek]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Kiley McDaniel has us 8th.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30880410/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-farm-system-rankings-all-30-teams

Furthermore, he says that with adding the 5th pick this year, only losing 1-2 people (like Mountcastle), and presumably big jumps from a few players (Gunnar, etc.), he believes Baltimore will be in the top 5 in next year's rankings.

[lovetoaster]

44 minutes ago, Absltgreek said:

Furthermore, he says that with adding the 5th pick this year, only losing 1-2 people (like Mountcastle), and presumably big jumps from a few players (Gunnar, etc.), he believes Baltimore will be in the top 5 in next year's rankings.

Law already has the O's ranked 16th in his 2022 rankings. 

[LookinUp]

Say what you want, but there's a dearth of information available on our guys right now. For all we know our top 10 will include Hernaiz, Adam Hall and two international prospects next year because all of those guys are that good. Or, none may be in the top 20. Michael Baumann could be a top 30 prospect by this time next year, or he could be slated to miss 2022 with TJ surgery.

We just don't know because they haven't played much at all. That gives guys like Law an excuse to go out on a limb.

As I said in another thread, he's basically Missouri with the O's system. It sounds good, but show me and then I'll react.

And it doesn't matter anyway. If we're good, we'll show it. If not, that'll be apparent too.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Absltgreek said:

Furthermore, he says that with adding the 5th pick this year, only losing 1-2 people (like Mountcastle), and presumably big jumps from a few players (Gunnar, etc.), he believes Baltimore will be in the top 5 in next year's rankings.

They will definite lose more than 1-2. 

Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and Harvey are close to locks to lose their prospect status and Zimmermann is very likely, all four were ranked in the top 15 by BA.

Baumann, Diaz, Jones, Lowther, Wells are possible.

Nevin, McKenna, Kevin Smith, Bradish and Adley are doubtful.

We could definitely be stronger next year with the #5 pick, typically the top 5 pick would fall about where Mountcastle is in the current rankings, but we would need significant steps forward by other players to overcome the loss of 4 more top players ranked between 9-14, let alone move up in the rankings.

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think KLaw used the lack of International prospects as an excuse to question the depth and lower the ranking.  I don't think he wanted to rank a system in the top 10 that didn't have an International presence on their list.

That essentially was his explanation. It's the same reason he has Detroit and Seattle so low. They both have been pretty abysmal at developing international talent. I still find that to be an extremely faulty reasoning. I don't think Law hates the O's as the meme goes, but it's no secret that the Orioles farm under Macphail and eventually the ML team under DD/Buck vastly outperformed his projections year after year and so he's gotten a lot of grief from Os fans throughout the years. He's a very stubborn guy.