The second guessing Hyde thread.

[DirtyBird]

Bunting with a man on 1st and 0 out is dumb too. Getting the man to 2nd with 1 out barely increases your chance of scoring.

[SilverRocket]

33 minutes ago, ExileAngelos said:

This is where we are with modern baseball.  Hyde was just asked why Bautista didn't come back to pitch the 10th inning.  One of the reasons he provided was he "didn't want to lose him for the series."  Two innings of work and he has to be unavailable for two days.  LOL

That's consistent with his usage all year. If you complain about the decision here, you have to accept that it'll burn him for the series to keep him in.

We'll likely have playoff innings for him. I do not want a burnt out Bautista in October.

[vab]

33 minutes ago, ExileAngelos said:

This is where we are with modern baseball.  Hyde was just asked why Bautista didn't come back to pitch the 10th inning.  One of the reasons he provided was he "didn't want to lose him for the series."  Two innings of work and he has to be unavailable for two days.  LOL

Hyde is right, Bautista would have been down for the rest of the series but that still wasn't a reason not to go back to him. Can't count on getting to him the next two nights, you go after this one tonight and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. 

[ExileAngelos]

1 minute ago, SilverRocket said:

That's consistent with his usage all year. If you complain about the decision here, you have to accept that it'll burn him for the series to keep him in.

We'll likely have playoff innings for him. I do not want a burnt out Bautista in October.

 

1 minute ago, vab said:

Hyde is right, Bautista would have been down for the rest of the series but that still wasn't a reason not to go back to him. Can't count on getting to him the next two nights, you go after this one tonight and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. 

Like I said.  Modern baseball.  I am sorry but it is ridiculous to declare a reliever unavailable for two days because he pitched two innings.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Bunting with a man on 1st and 0 out is dumb too. Getting the man to 2nd with 1 out barely increases your chance of scoring.

34.2℅ as opposed to 17.9%.

[ace20251]

they lost the game because they were 2-14 with runners in scoring position.the pitching gave up 3 runs through 9,cant ask for much more.

[Dunk35]

Felix is 6'8" 280 lbs and 28 years old. If we are scared of him throwing 2 innings tonight because it could wear him out for October, lets just pack it in and become the A's. Again. 

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

34.2℅ as opposed to 17.9%.

Can you show your work?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Can you show your work?

[SilverRocket]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

34.2℅ as opposed to 17.9%.

This is not remotely close to what I'm seeing in my first two sources:

https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Those show that bunting is slightly worse though very similar. And when you take into account the failed attempts (say even if you succeed 80% of the time), bunting becomes worse by a lot.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Nine pitches thrown is the second lowest total of the season for Bautisa. He could have pitched the 10th inning tonight.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

This is not remotely close to what I'm seeing in my first two sources:

https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Those show that bunting is slightly worse though very similar. And when you take into account the failed attempts (say even if you succeed 80% of the time), bunting becomes worse by a lot.

I'm on mobile without my glasses but I'm pretty sure that is what the chart from my copy of The Book had.

It should, in a general sense, slightly increase the odds of scoring one run while lowering overall run expectency.

[Three Run Homer]

If Hyde's rule is to never use Bautista for the 10th in a home game, then it's a stupid rule.  

If Bautista pitches the 10th, the O's have an excellent chance to win the game.  He's the best pitcher in baseball in the ghost runner situation because of his ability to strike hitters out.  And if the O's come up with the game tied in the bottom of the 10th, they can play small ball to manufacture a run.  

As soon as Baumann was announced, the O's went from being a strong favorite to being a strong underdog to win the game tonight.  When you have a chance to win, you have to take it, even if it limits Bautista's ability to pitch tomorrow night.  

The strategy would be different if Bautista had thrown more pitches in the 9th or if he had been used more often recently.  But given that he was rested and hadn't been taxed in the 9th, tonight was the perfect time to use him in the 10th. 

Except Hyde has a stupid rule saying he will never use him in the 10th in a home game.  

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

If Hyde's rule is to never use Bautista for the 10th in a home game, then it's a stupid rule.  

If Bautista pitches the 10th, the O's have an excellent chance to win the game.  He's the best pitcher in baseball in the ghost runner situation because of his ability to strike hitters out.  And if the O's come up with the game tied in the bottom of the 10th, they can play small ball to manufacture a run.  

As soon as Baumann was announced, the O's went from being a strong favorite to being a strong underdog to win the game tonight.  When you have a chance to win, you have to take it, even if it limits Bautista's ability to pitch tomorrow night.  

The strategy would be different if Bautista had thrown more pitches in the 9th or if he had been used more often recently.  But given that he was rested and hadn't been taxed in the 9th, tonight was the perfect time to use him in the 10th. 

Except Hyde has a stupid rule saying he will never use him in the 10th in a home game.  

 

 

Four times on the road this year Bautista entered a tie game in the ninth pitching two innings resulting in an Orioles win. He should have pitched tonight after only making 9 pitches.

Bautista is saved for Wednesday night's game, but depending on how that game goes he might not even be needed. Bautista was needed tonight and his stuff plays better in extra innings with the bonus runner compared to Baumann.

This is why I wanted to add another elite reliever at the trade deadline for situations like tonight. If we had another plus arm in the bullpen then maybe the 10th inning looks a whole lot different tonight.

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm on mobile without my glasses but I'm pretty sure that is what the chart from my copy of The Book had.

It should, in a general sense, slightly increase the odds of scoring one run while lowering overall run expectency.

The numbers you posted suggest double the odds of scoring. I don't think that's right and it's not what I'm seeing.