Guthrie Doubters stand up

[tywright]

Guthrie pitched a fair number of innings in college and the minors.

2002: 157

2003: 159.1

2004: 161.1

2005: 142.1

2006: 142.2

He's at 118.2 right now. He should be fine through August, but in September they may need to ease up on him.

Don't forget the winter league IP!

He shouldn't pitch more than 190 this season

[Say O!]

1) Bingo...you minimize the risk (better management) to reduce the luck factor

2) His velocity is back up to his normal performance

Another poster stated that Guthrie threw more around 91-93 mph yesterday. That's still a few notches below his 96-97 mph he was throwing in early-mid june. Seems a little bit more than the 2-seam vs 4-seam pitch assortment too.

With average secondary pitches, Guthrie's success will largely be determined by fastball. Yes, location and movement certainly play a large role, but consistently throwing mid to upper 90's as a starter is a rare thing in baseball. Low 90's with movement = good middle of rotation starter potential. Upper 90's with movement = potentially dominant #1 or #2 (which is what Guthrie was when he threw that hard).

Frobby pointed out Guthrie has thrown his fair share of innings in the past. But my question is: what was his velocity then? It seems he has always threw hard, but even the O's were surprised when he was tossing it up there at 96mph. I was under the impression that it was significantly faster than what was scouted in the minors and expected from Guthrie.

Sorry if I'm pulling an Armando Benitez here, but I'm watching the radar guns.

[Flosman]

Another poster stated that Guthrie threw more around 91-93 mph yesterday. That's still a few notches below his 96-97 mph he was throwing in early-mid june. Seems a little bit more than the 2-seam vs 4-seam pitch assortment too.

With average secondary pitches, Guthrie's success will largely be determined by fastball. Yes, location and movement certainly play a large role, but consistently throwing mid to upper 90's as a starter is a rare thing in baseball. Low 90's with movement = good middle of rotation starter potential. Upper 90's with movement = potentially dominant #1 or #2 (which is what Guthrie was when he threw that hard).

Frobby pointed out Guthrie has thrown his fair share of innings in the past. But my question is: what was his velocity then? It seems he has always threw hard, but even the O's were surprised when he was tossing it up there at 96mph. I was under the impression that it was significantly faster than what was scouted in the minors and expected from Guthrie.

Sorry if I'm pulling an Armando Benitez here, but I'm watching the radar guns.

From what I have read he has always been able to bring it up into the mid/high 90s. However he has a pretty big difference between his 2 seamer and 4 seamer. I think this is one of the keys for his success. Being able to dial it up at any time is a great asset. When he can control his fastbal which has been most of his starts this season he is very effective.

[tywright]

Another poster stated that Guthrie threw more around 91-93 mph yesterday. That's still a few notches below his 96-97 mph he was throwing in early-mid june. Seems a little bit more than the 2-seam vs 4-seam pitch assortment too.

With average secondary pitches, Guthrie's success will largely be determined by fastball. Yes, location and movement certainly play a large role, but consistently throwing mid to upper 90's as a starter is a rare thing in baseball. Low 90's with movement = good middle of rotation starter potential. Upper 90's with movement = potentially dominant #1 or #2 (which is what Guthrie was when he threw that hard).

Frobby pointed out Guthrie has thrown his fair share of innings in the past. But my question is: what was his velocity then? It seems he has always threw hard, but even the O's were surprised when he was tossing it up there at 96mph. I was under the impression that it was significantly faster than what was scouted in the minors and expected from Guthrie.

Sorry if I'm pulling an Armando Benitez here, but I'm watching the radar guns.

He was around 94-96 in Seattle. I missed yesterday's game so I didn't see the readings. Remember he throws a 2 and 4 seamer that vary in speeds. As for the average secondary pitches, his slider is looking a lot better than it did earlier in the season. It's becoming a decent strikeout pitch. Plus with Gut's makeup, I wouldn't discount him developing another pitch.

[tywright]

Another observation I've noticed lately is that batters aren't swinging early on him anymore. They are working counts better against him, which has raised his walk numbers and pitch counts.

[Sports Guy]

Another observation I've noticed lately is that batters aren't swinging early on him anymore. They are working counts better against him, which has raised his walk numbers and pitch counts.

Yea, i have noticed the same thing.

Teams have a much better approach against him....Part of the adjustment period.

[Hallas]

Another observation I've noticed lately is that batters aren't swinging early on him anymore. They are working counts better against him, which has raised his walk numbers and pitch counts.

Even if the A's suck as hitters, they still preach taking pitches and trying to work the count for walks. I wouldn't use a game against the A's as an example of teams trying to work the count better against him.

[tywright]

Even if the A's suck as hitters, they still preach taking pitches and trying to work the count for walks. I wouldn't use a game against the A's as an example of teams trying to work the count better against him.

I was talking about the 3 games prior to yesterday. I didn't see yesterday's game

[BeerIsFood]

Since I do not know nearly enough about stats to be able to analyze them correctly one way or another, I can only go on what I have seen. I haven't seen enough, therefore I am refraining from making judgement one way or another until the end of the year, after he faces the AL East over and over again.

Anyway if anyone knows any good books, websites, ect to explain baseball stats in depth and the analysis of them, please PM them to me, thanks. Beer.

[Rex Thunder]

Well the guys with the best stuff in baseball still usually have their BABIP in the 280-300.

He has been lucky...You can't deny that.

Now, the question is, how lucky has he been and what would we be looking at if his stats were more "normal"?

That is the question.

There is too much speaking hypothetically, and "what if" here. How can you say, "You can't deny that (he's been lucky.)"

Of course I can! I watch every night. I feel like I know when I am seeing a "lucky" pitcher- and I don't see that with Guthrie. Even if he goes on to have a bad season next year, which I doubt- you STILL can not call THIS year lucky. This year, right here, right now, Guthrie is just THAT GOOD! How can you deny that?

By the numbers of one stat??? Come on... You're ignoring just about all the rest of his numbers (namely ERA, WHIP, OPP BA), and his results- to focus on ONE stat that backs your point...

[Sports Guy]

There is too much speaking hypothetically, and "what if" here. How can you say, "You can't deny that (he's been lucky.)"

Of course I can! I watch every night. I feel like I know when I am seeing a "lucky" pitcher- and I don't see that with Guthrie. Even if he goes on to have a bad season next year, which I doubt- you STILL can not call THIS year lucky. This year, right here, right now, Guthrie is just THAT GOOD! How can you deny that?

By the numbers of one stat??? Come on... You're ignoring just about all the rest of his numbers (namely ERA, WHIP, OPP BA), and his results- to focus on ONE stat that backs your point...

You mean the defensive dependant stats? Yea, they all go along with how lucky his BABIP is.

[Rex Thunder]

You mean the defensive dependant stats? Yea, they all go along with how lucky his BABIP is.

To me it's just like arguiing over the existence of God. There are countless things people who don't believe can point to make their case, but they seem to turn a blind eye to what's right in front of them. I see what you're saying- and that you need to see it for another year before you lose your doubts... but the point is- this year, he is among the league's best. Rookie or no rookie, lucky or not. Every argument has two sides, and valid points usually stand on both- so it's a matter of which stance you take.

I wonder if you could find any otger pitchers in the league with a similar BABIP, who don't have the other numbers to go with it. If so, are those pitchers lucky too? They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, and I agree with another post that said maybe it's the use of the word "luck" that is ruffling feathers, but the fact is, Guthrie has been dominating for most of this season as a starter, and whatever his defensive stats are- he was still throwing the ball.

I think as someone said, he makes his own luck with his agressive and immediate pitching style. Teh defense stays on hsi toes, and they know he'll throw strikes... so they're ready. In the Boston debacle, other than the Hernandez pop up blunder, which I still quiver at the thought of- the defense fell apart once he left the game. Could that be because the defense is aware of Baez and Ray's inconsistency? Who knows...

As I already said though, as much credit as he gives the defense- I have just as often see them fail him- and him then bail them out. I think this is another reason for their extra effort (well, minus Jay Gibbons in left field a week or so ago) in playing D behind him.

[Mackus]

To me it's just like arguiing over the existence of God. There are countless things people who don't believe can point to make their case, but they seem to turn a blind eye to what's right in front of them. I see what you're saying- and that you need to see it for another year before you lose your doubts... but the point is- this year, he is among the league's best. Rookie or no rookie, lucky or not. Every argument has two sides, and valid points usually stand on both- so it's a matter of which stance you take.

I wonder if you could find any otger pitchers in the league with a similar BABIP, who don't have the other numbers to go with it. If so, are those pitchers lucky too? They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, and I agree with another post that said maybe it's the use of the word "luck" that is ruffling feathers, but the fact is, Guthrie has been dominating for most of this season as a starter, and whatever his defensive stats are- he was still throwing the ball.

I think as someone said, he makes his own luck with his agressive and immediate pitching style. Teh defense stays on hsi toes, and they know he'll throw strikes... so they're ready. In the Boston debacle, other than the Hernandez pop up blunder, which I still quiver at the thought of- the defense fell apart once he left the game. Could that be because the defense is aware of Baez and Ray's inconsistency? Who knows...

As I already said though, as much credit as he gives the defense- I have just as often see them fail him- and him then bail them out. I think this is another reason for their extra effort (well, minus Jay Gibbons in left field a week or so ago) in playing D behind him.

I think its kind of naive to think that the defenders play better behind Guthrie than they do for other pitchers. Guthrie has both been incredibly good this season and gotten a bit lucky on top of that. It doesn't have to be an either or situation.

[Rex Thunder]

I think its kind of naive to think that the defenders play better behind Guthrie than they do for other pitchers. Guthrie has both been incredibly good this season and gotten a bit lucky on top of that. It doesn't have to be an either or situation.

I never said the defenders play better behind him intially. I just started responding to others who brought that up in their responses. I agree that it shouldn't be an either or deal. He has pitched out of just as many tough spots due to defensive errors than anyone, and done significantly better in those adverse situations.

[Frobby]

I think its kind of naive to think that the defenders play better behind Guthrie than they do for other pitchers. Guthrie has both been incredibly good this season and gotten a bit lucky on top of that. It doesn't have to be an either or situation.

I endorse this position. However, I do think it's possible that (1) defenders might play a bit better behind pitchers who work fast and throw strikes, and (2) regardless of that, two pitchers on the same team can get significantly different levels of defensive support, just as they can get different levels of offensive support.

Regardless of those factors, Guthrie has been outstanding, no two ways about it.