How do you feel about our SP prospects going forward??

[Pickles]

Not great.

This is the hardest pitching environment in MLB.

They better turn their computers to solving that riddle.

[Daddy-O's]

Most of the top teams have not developed all of their starting pitching, take a look at the Dodgers, Padres, White Sox

 

[ScGO's]

The rotation sure isn't settled for 2022. Still just means and question marks

 

 

 

[Getz]

1 hour ago, Daddy-O's said:

Most of the top teams have not developed all of their starting pitching, take a look at the Dodgers, Padres, White Sox

 

But those teams had better farm systems than we currently have, because of their international prospects which we don't have any.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

Not great.

This is the hardest pitching environment in MLB.

They better turn their computers to solving that riddle.

If you can pitch, you can pitch anywhere.  I don’t buy this stuff at all.

Means was never in the top 30 and never wowed anyone with his stuff And now look at him.  
 

There are places where it is harder, no doubt about that.  But you are in the majors, it’s hard everywhere.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Daddy-O's said:

Most of the top teams have not developed all of their starting pitching, take a look at the Dodgers, Padres, White Sox

 

Very rare to see an all home grown staff.

I don’t have a lot of long term faith in anyone outside of GRod.  I think Baumann can do it as well but obviously my level of confidence in him is far different from GRod.  Outside of that, I don’t have confidence in anyone in the system to be a ML starter.  Hall would be the closest but injuries are an issue and he just got pushed back basically another year.  
 

There are plenty of other guys to try and keep throwing out there and hope that they can stick but i just don’t think it’s all that likely that they do.

But that’s why you make trades, to move these guys elsewhere for more established pitching.

Its probably also why it’s going to become increasingly more difficult to trade Means.

[scOtt]

I'm not a great follower of the minors... that being said, I feel pretty good about the guys at AA and lower. The guys at Norfolk, that had any promise, just seem to be fizzling out.

[glenn__davis]

I mean anyone that has followed this organization for the past 30 years shouldn't have a ton of faith in pitching prospects.  Different regimes, different directions, different coaches...same results at the MLB level.

That said, as prospects, I'm certainly enthusiastic about Rodriguez, Hall and Baumann now that he seems to back.  There are of course a slew of other guys that show potential as either starters or relievers.  But until I see it at the MLB level...

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, fitzi22 said:

The OP basically said it all. DL has always reminded me a bit of Hunter Harvey (throws hard with not much else and a bit injury prone).  He started off the year proving me wrong, and then…… yea. I’ve always had a feeling he would end up closer to Andrew Miller than anything. 

One point I’d disagree on is that Hall “throws hard with not much else.”   His curve is top shelf from what I’ve seen.    I can’t say whether he’ll have enough command to be a starter, but if he’s healthy (which is a huge if so far as I’m concerned), he’ll be a very good back end reliever at a minimum.   

[foxfield]

How do we feel about our SP prospects.  Well for starters, (see what I did?) we do not have enough.  Our history has been poor.  We have either mismanaged or traded before they matured or they disappointed or were injured.  

I am optimistic on Grayson and Hall.  But in order to be successful, we are going to have to have more than a couple of guys.  Yes we can get one or two back end guys as FA.  But we need 5 or 6 of these guys because history tells us they all won't make their ceilings.

So that leaves me a glass half full.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

I mean anyone that has followed this organization for the past 30 years shouldn't have a ton of faith in pitching prospects.  Different regimes, different directions, different coaches...same results at the MLB level.

That said, as prospects, I'm certainly enthusiastic about Rodriguez, Hall and Baumann now that he seems to back.  There are of course a slew of other guys that show potential as either starters or relievers.  But until I see it at the MLB level...

Have we overhauled our pitching dev system during that period of time? That's something I haven't seen much about that. Also has the org changed its stance on the cut fastball? 

[Ruzious]

My view is we obviously need Rodriquez to be a TOR, and he should be starting in Baltimore by May, 2022.  So, along with Means, that's 2 spots we have covered - hoping they'll be our 2 TOR guys for several years.  After that, we do have other options - despite the apparent fails of Akin, Kremer, et al this season.  Bauman - if healthy - should get a shot to be in the Baltimore rotation early in the season.  Hall, Brnovich and Rom have done well at Bowie and should be options in Baltimore before the end of 2022.  And I hope they haven't given up on Lowther and Kremer.  Bradish seems most likely to be a reliever in Baltimore, and if they really know he's not cut out for starting, they should bring him up as a reliever.  Does anyone ever work out as a starter when it looks like they're more cut out for relieving?  I don't think so.  Akin's clearly not going to make it as a starter - move him to the pen - give Bradish, Akin and Kevin Smith roles they can be successful in instead going for 1,000 to 1 odds of making them starters.   

[Matt Bennett]

Waves of Starting Pitcher Prospects During Rebuild

2018 Debut

1. John Means --> never much of a prospect but blossomed into an All-Star. 

2. David Hess --> dime a dozen AAAA guy --> DFA'd after falling out of rotation and failing in mop up duties

3. Luis Ortiz --> came over in the Jonathan Schoop trade, once a highly rated prospect but that status drifted away --> Never has been able to get AAA hitters out

4. Josh Rogers --> came over in the Zach Britton trade --> soft thrower that needed Tommy John and was released upon return

5. Yefry Ramirez --> had a lively arm but struggled with command --> traded in a quiet swap

6. Jimmy Yacabonis --> never really showed much of anything in a few years of swing man duties --> DFA'd

2019 Debut

1. Dillon Tate --> came over in the Zach Britton trade, once a top prospect but that shine dimmed as he developed --> new regime converted him to a reliever and he seems to have the makings of a decent bullpen piece

2. Hunter Harvey --> fragility hindered his chance to be a starter and now it is hindering his chance to be a reliever as well

2020 Debut

1. Dean Kremer --> came over in Manny Machado trade --> impressive debut followed by nightmarish sophomore campaign

2. Keegan Akin --> impressive debut followed by nightmarish sophomore campaign

3. Bruce Zimmermann --> came over in the Kevin Gausman trade --> doesn't have overwhelming stuff but has held his own in limited starting action

2021 Debut 

1. Zac Lowther --> really yanked around the AAA/MLB shuttle and hasn't gotten hitters at either level out

2. Alex Wells --> has looked very hittable in limited MLB action --> has always been the type of arm whose location would have to be perfect

3. Tyler Wells --> has been a stud back end reliever as a Rule V pick after getting his feet under himself --> I don't think there's any question this guy should be in the rotation next year

4. Mac Sceroler --> overmatched additional Rule V selection that was quickly returned

Next Waves

• Mike Baumann, Kevin Smith, Kyle Bradish
• Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall
• Cody Sedlock, Gray Fenter, Ofelky Peralta
• Kyle Brnovich, Cameron Bishop, Blaine Knight, Drew Rom
• Garrett Stallings, Brendan Hanifee

 

I'm a list-maker so I enjoy keeping track of things like this. I would like to not see any of the Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Alex Wells, and Dean Kremer in Baltimore again this year. They've all been yo-yo'd around and I would just like to see them get into a groove at Norfolk. It's easy to give up hope but not one of the Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta cavalry had a smooth transition to the majors before becoming effective major league pieces. These things take time. Envisioning a Means, Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, Grayson Rodriguez, Mike Baumann rotation by June 2022 

[MCO'sFan]

There are a couple things to like about our SP prospects. FIrst, we have some elite talent guys in DL Hall and G-Rod, I would put Bauman a tick or two behind them. Secondly, the depth behind them is significant. The hope is that a few from that group hit as at least #4's or #5's and some as solid pen guys. It is critical that one of Hall and GRod hit their peak. If both do then that's icing on the cake.  

[ChuckS]

We aren't drafting starters.  So tough to imagine much help coming up through the system anytime soon other than Grayson Rodriguez and some back end of the rotation types. 

The Orioles are not going to dish out contracts for premium SP on the FA market (100-200 million deals is what it cost to get a no. 1 or 2 starter).  Your second tier starters (no. 3 and 4 types) still going to cost 10-15 mil a season on the open market and are usually high risk of regressing.  Add to that, the Orioles are not a desirable FA destination for these guys due to the ballpark and playin in the AL East.  

Prospect for prospect trades just don't happen no matter how much they might make sense and teams are always going to value their top pitching prospects a little more than their position players. 

Only avenue left in my mind, is to trade cost controlled talent at the major league level for another team's top pitching prospects.  This seems like the most likely path for Elias to follow.  That means trading guys like Means, Mullins, Santander and Hays at their peak value - which could be 2022 if they can all stay healthy.