Britt joining in on the bash fest

[Ripken]

I'm fine with sucking the last few seasons provided what Elias is doing throughout the organization will make the Orioles contenders and that we start seeing some progress soon.  I look at his job in three pieces:

1) Acquire talent through drafts, international signings, and trades.  There's nothing in Baltimore worth trading and it takes years to get the international presence worked out.  He has started that, so that's good.  His drafts?  We don't know yet but the under/over stuff and the lack of pitching is concerning to me.  The Heston situation is sad all around.

2) Develop the talent in the org.  All the training, technology, and analytic stuff that's supposed to make these kids better and smarter, allowing them to maximize their talent.  So far, the older prospects have been a failure on the mound.  Elias didn't acquire most of them but spoke well of many and they've collectively been terrible.  Outside of Mullins, we haven't seen any position player successes either; no big leaps or scrap heap pleasant surprises. 

3) Make the Orioles a winner.  Figure out how to mix organizational players with those obtained through free agency and trades, within the constraints of maintaining a talent pipeline and whatever the owner's spending budget is.  This step hasn't even been started, in part because Steps 1 and 2 aren't producing (yet?) and he favors a lengthy minor league development program. 

Elias is finishing up his third year.  Lots of challenges.  It was a mess here.  He lost an entire minor league and most of a major league season; true of everyone but likely more detrimental to a rebuilding team.  He might have cheap owners, who may even be preparing for a sale.  Of course, we all hope there is a new agreement and the 2022 season is not interrupted.  And so on...

So, what's the path forward?  AR and GRod up next year.  That will be exciting.  Another high draft pick, maybe even the first overall, but I'm preparing to be underwhelmed by whomever we take and the fact that it'll be 2025 before we see him.  Might we sign a good free agent or two?  Is there some actual talent in the low minors? 

Bottom line, is Elias doing this right?  Are we following the Astros path or the Pirates?  What's the timeframe for competing?  Unfortunately, right now I have real doubts.  I just don't see the genius in Elias that others see and, as much as I begged for a complete rebuild starting in 2017, my patience is running out.

[Oriole1940]

I look to Casey Mize of Detroit as a comp for some of our young pitching prospects.  He was the  high round draft pick at about the same time as the Orioles were having high round picks.  Last time I checked,  he was looking like a future good MLB player.  About what a recently drafted player should look like.  None of our  recent pitcher picks  has matched his stats.    Only one example,  for sure, but again our competitor seems to have outsmarted us on that pick, as per usual.  

[SteveA]

22 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I just don't see how they procure the necessary pitching upgrades to get much better next year. Their pitching has been historically bad. Like, unbelievably bad. I feel like you could literally replace the ML pitching with Norfolk & Bowie's pitching and it would be significantly better.

Well there's your answer.   Many of Norfolk and Bowie's pitchers WILL be up next year.   That's kind of the point.

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Bottom line, is Elias doing this right?  Are we following the Astros path or the Pirates?  What's the timeframe for competing?  Unfortunately, right now I have real doubts.  I just don't see the genius in Elias that others see and, as much as I begged for a complete rebuild starting in 2017, my patience is running out.

I've got my doubts, too.  I think Elias has done a good job with getting the Dominican program off the ground and scouting/signing in South America overall.  I think his drafts have a chance to be very beneficial to the organization.  

It remains to be seen if he can sign quality free agents to the ML club.  I'm not sure if he's attempted to or if he's waiting for when he feels that the minor league talent is ready to strike.  

I feel like he's doing some things right, the rest of the stuff is an incomplete.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

The last two decades of watching this organization has a tendency to grind one into a fine paste. Now that I've got kids, it's become much less about "I DEMAND SATISFACTION!" and more about "Hey, look buddy!!! They're playing baseball!!!" 

When you say "putting everything off" what do you mean, exactly? Winning 72 games? Not being an embarrassment? Picking 11th instead of 5th?

I would say that so far, Elias has done a representable job transforming the entire organization. I would feel better about things if Kjerstad was not battling heart inflammation, obviously. I would also feel better if we had more high end pitching talent in the pipeline. 

I just don't see how they procure the necessary pitching upgrades to get much better next year. Their pitching has been historically bad. Like, unbelievably bad. I feel like you could literally replace the ML pitching with Norfolk & Bowie's pitching and it would be significantly better.

I think many of these things would have been said the last few years too.

I said this last week but I expect 2 starters out of our AA or higher pitchers right now.  The rest are BP guys, AAAA players, traded pieces or just flame outs.

We have to do more outside of the organization for pitching.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

I look to Casey Mize of Detroit as a comp for some of our young pitching prospects.  He was the  high round draft pick at about the same time as the Orioles were having high round picks.  Last time I checked,  he was looking like a future good MLB player.  About what a recently drafted player should look like.  None of our  recent pitcher picks  has matched his stats.    Only one example,  for sure, but again our competitor seems to have outsmarted us on that pick, as per usual.  

Grayson will be this guy.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

More media bashing:

 

Not sure i call that media bashing, but more of a truth bomb. Eckersly has been around the game a long time. 

the question really comes down to is the organization too focused on spin rates and analytics and missing the fact that pitchers need to be able to command the ball first? 

Both Lopez and Akin are pitching in roles that they are not designed for. Is this out of need or does the organization think they can really turn them around? 

I watch the minors and I'm absolutely flabbergasted how they take priority guys and bring them in as relievers instead of allowing them to remain in a routine as a starter. I know they are piggybacking guys, but they should have priority starters and then piggyback guys who are lesser starting pitching prospects but who might be relievers.

The pitching in the minors outside of Grayson Rodriguez and maybe Mike Baumann is really, really questionable especially with DL Hall on the IL. Could Rom and Bradish end up a starters? Sure. I feel better about Rom sticking despite his lesser stuff because he commands better, but they don't seem to be forcing Rom to his changeup much and that will limit him at AAA and the major leagues if he doesn't learn to use and command that pitch.

When I watch the major league pitchers this year, particularly the guys we thought were prospects (Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells) I see guys that either can't make quality pitches consistently enough, or guys who have very marginal stuff (Wells and Lowther - though I'm convinced whatever should soreness that put Lowther on the IL has been around a all season because his stuff looked so much better in AA).

The organization is playing its prospects in different positions every night and drafted a S-ton of outfielders after drafting an s-ton of SS in 2019. Meanwhile it's hard to find a pitcher that you really like as a starter at the major league level.

Add in one of their top prospects has been exposed a bit in High-A both offensively and defensively (Henderson), their second best pitcher missed most of the season, and their 1-2 pick for 20202 may never being able to play again, and you have to ask ourselves, "Are we really on the cusp of being good again?" 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

I’m not sure why people are so upset about these articles. Of course they don’t dig into all the details, but the basic premise is correct. The Orioles aren’t attempting to be competitive for the last 3 years. It’s very unlikely they will try to be competitive next year. These are just facts. 

Agreed. I know it's easy for some to get defensive, but let's face it, no one is lying in these articles. 

The jury is out on Elias and his crew. Are there things that look promising when it comes to using the technologies to help our player develop, sure, but until we see a player make a breakthrough in the minors and then perform well at the major league level, it doesn't mean anything.

We have no idea whether he's able to field a good major league team yet because he hasn't even tried. I don't know what his timeline is, but I can say this, this team is going to need a major, and mean major influx of free agency or trade talent to compete anytime in the next 3-years.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

You have to constantly be doing the little things like actually taking advantage of talent bases in the Caribbean & South America (OK THAT'S NOT A LITTLE THING WHATSOEVER) to keep the talent flowing through the system. If you've got revenue streams like the big market teams then maybe you could get away w/ not doing that.

Who knows what's going to come of the new CBA. But what Elias is doing actually is the best path forward to get the org on it's feet from top to bottom. He inherited a dumpster fire, and while the top of the dumpster is still flaming uncontrollably, the foundation is beginning to establish itself. 

We can hope it is, but I'm not sure we can be positive that it is completely. We won't know that for sure until players from the system that he acquired either make it to the major leagues or are traded for players that start impacting the major league club. 

Until wins start happening, all we can do is hope that they are laying the right foundation and have the right evaluators bringing talent into the system. I do see some good things, but have questions about others. 

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure i call that media bashing, but more of a truth bomb. Eckersly has been around the game a long time. 

the question really comes down to is the organization too focused on spin rates and analytics and missing the fact that pitchers need to be able to command the ball first? 

Both Lopez and Akin are pitching in roles that they are not designed for. Is this out of need or does the organization think they can really turn them around? 

I watch the minors and I'm absolutely flabbergasted how they take priority guys and bring them in as relievers instead of allowing them to remain in a routine as a starter. I know they are piggybacking guys, but they should have priority starters and then piggyback guys who are lesser starting pitching prospects but who might be relievers.

The pitching in the minors outside of Grayson Rodriguez and maybe Mike Baumann is really, really questionable especially with DL Hall on the IL. Could Rom and Bradish end up a starters? Sure. I feel better about Rom sticking despite his lesser stuff because he commands better, but they don't seem to be forcing Rom to his changeup much and that will limit him at AAA and the major leagues if he doesn't learn to use and command that pitch.

When I watch the major league pitchers this year, particularly the guys we thought were prospects (Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells) I see guys that either can't make quality pitches consistently enough, or guys who have very marginal stuff (Wells and Lowther - though I'm convinced whatever should soreness that put Lowther on the IL has been around a all season because his stuff looked so much better in AA).

The organization is playing its prospects in different positions every night and drafted a S-ton of outfielders after drafting an s-ton of SS in 2019. Meanwhile it's hard to find a pitcher that you really like as a starter at the major league level.

Add in one of their top prospects has been exposed a bit in High-A both offensively and defensively (Henderson), their second best pitcher missed most of the season, and their 1-2 pick for 20202 may never being able to play again, and you have to ask ourselves, "Are we really on the cusp of being good again?" 

 

 

Yep.

I said it the other day but right now I would only bet on GRod and Baumann to be in the rotation and even Baumann is a question because of his elbow.

Offensively?  Outside of Adley, who knows.  A lot of things to still be worked out by a lot of guys.

When you read some people in here, you see some of those who follow and write about the minors for the Os talk in Twitter, they make it seem like it’s inevitable that these guys are going to make it and be really good.  It’s just not how it’s likely to happen.

Elias needs to make serious moves this offseason imo…trades And signings.

[Hank Scorpio]

37 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Well there's your answer.   Many of Norfolk and Bowie's pitchers WILL be up next year.   That's kind of the point.

Yessir I know. What could go wrong!!!!!!!

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Yep that is my huge concern right now. 

My #1 concern is:

1) can these guys develop pitching talent 

My #2 concern is:

2) are there budget constraints in place that will some them from spending when spending can really make the difference in creating a contending team?  (I do not believe there was a realistic opportunity to spend this past off-season to get someone who could help us long-term; I think it is possible that there will be such opportunities in the coming off season and certainly the one after that and I worry if spending will be allowed).

My #3 concern is the lack of top ten round pitching in all the Elias drafts.

So not doing things to make the 2021 Orioles better, which is the focus of this thread and of the national criticism, doesn't rate my top 3 concerns and if it is even #4 it is a distant 4th.

 

 

Lots of good points here that i agree with, but I want to pull the string on this one a bit. 

I think what the national pundits are looking at is how bad this team really is at the moment. I think we all agree we knew this team was going to be bad for a while, but finding some cheap replacement level talent has not been a strength of Elias and company. 

I would argue that on the 2021 team, Urias and Sulser are the only two that would fit this category or cheap replacement level players that have performed adequately. Mateo, Watkins and Diplan are still too new to really say one way or the other, but that's not a lot.

Here are the other guys that fit that category but failed:
Franco
Leyba
Harvey
Plutko
Lopez
Valaika
Eshelman
Anderson
LeBlanc
Greene
Jannis
Gutierrez 

Meanwhile there are the players they brought up from the minors this year for chances:
Wilkerson
Wynns
Nevin
Mattson

It's just a lot of zeros from the Orioles talent evaluators.

 

 

[Explosivo]

They really are trying to goad Elias into accelerating his plan. I am hopeful he does not change a thing. Next year will likely suck too but that’s fine. Our window is 2023-2030.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

I've said this before and I'll say it again.  This season isn't a result of trying to be bad.  It is a result of a wave of young pitching being a near total failure at the major league level.  If Kremer, Zimmerman, Akin, and Lowther, had turned out to be, in some order: an adequate 3rd starter, a 5th starter who wasn't very good but could give you five innings, a decent bullpen piece, and one dud - we would be a lot better off.  We'd still be bad but not the laughingstock position we are in.

Instead we got 3 duds at the major league level and the jury is out on Zimmerman.  That is a failure of development, or luck, or circumstance.  But I think we had to give those guys a shot to see what they could do.  Planning from the start to stick them all at Norfolk for more "development" at their age would have been stupid.  Giving them a chance to sink or swim was the absolute correct plan, IMO.  The fact that they all sank really sucks and maybe has implications moving forward in terms of whether this administration can develop pitching.  But it was not a bad plan and was not "trying to lose".

As I have said, I certainly think we could have brought in ONE solid veteran P and still had room to give those guys their shot.  I agree 100% with Sports Guy on that.

But the hyperbole that they didn't try is just over the top.  Franco was an appropriate move, someone who could fill a spot for a year.  As was Galvis.  They botched second base, they failed to find a stopgap C that was better than Severino, perhaps overestimating what Sevvy would do with the bad and not realizing how Godawful he would be ebhind the plate.

So those are mistakes.  But the idea that they didn't try to field a team is over the top.  If the 4 rookie Ps had turned out to be half decent this would be a whole different narrative.  Everyone would be talking about that as a step forward in the rebuild.

This year was a failure primarily because of those pitchers.  Not because of some imagined strategy if trying to lose.  There were certainly a few moves they could have made to make this team a bit better, but in the long run they wouldn't have mattered.  Say we brought in a 1 or 2 year veteran starting P to solidify one spot in the rotation while not stopping Kremer/Lowther/Zimmerman/Akin from getting their chance?  Say we brought in a Chirinos or Casali to solidify C while we waited for Adley.  Would those moves have mattered in the long run?  The pitcher and catcher would likely be forgotten by the time this team was good.

1) Elias wasn't trying to lose.  He had a reasonable plan and it failed.  And that failure has negative implications moving forward.

2) A few moves could have been made to make the floor for this team higher and avoid the current embarrassment.  We don't know why they weren't made but budget is definitely a suspect.

I still say that #2 isn't a big deal (unless it is an indicator that such moves NEVER will be made, then it is a harbinger of doom).  The big deal is that just about every young pitcher we bring up who has had some level of success is a failure.

All the hand wringing in this thread about other moves that should have been made doesn't have 1/100th the importance to me that the development failures do.  And all the national reporters are looking at results and missing that point and assuming, like some fans on here, that Elias is trying to lose. 

I think the plan included picking in the top 5 in the 2022 draft. 

Of course if it didn't, and he misjudged the young pitching this badly...that's even worse than intentionally fielding a losing team.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the plan included picking in the top 5 in the 2022 draft. 

Of course if it didn't, and he misjudged the young pitching this badly...that's even worse than intentionally fielding a losing team.

 I agree he expected to finish top 5 of draft. My guess he expected a little bit more from the pitching as well.