Heyman on Tex Trade Talks

[JTrea81]

It would be a comic tragedy if it turns out MacPhail is the reason we don't get Tex. There's no doubt in my mind that Duquette would pull the trigger on a Cabrera/Tex deal in a heartbeat.

We'd be stupid not to if that's all that Texas wants and we want Tex. DCab will not get better under Mazzone. I don't see Tex walking away from Baltimore after said he wanted to play there. However if MacPhail has no plans to offer him a large contract (which again doesn't make sense unless we have one heck of a plan B) the deal would make no sense. However if we do let Tex go to the Red Sox or Yankees without a fight, we will know MacPhail is truly in charge, that's for sure!

[Sports Guy]

We'd be stupid not to if that's all that Texas wants and we want Tex. DCab will not get better under Mazzone. I don't see Tex walking away from Baltimore after said he wanted to play there. However if MacPhail has no plans to offer him a large contract (which again doesn't make sense unless we have one heck of a plan B) the deal would make no sense. However if we do let Tex go to the Red Sox or Yankees without a fight, we will know MacPhail is truly in charge, that's for sure!

I don't see how this can said with any certainty.

[gamiliel]

so what if we traded DCab for him. We offer a good extension and if he doesn't sign it we deal him this offseason or next deadline and get more back then we gave up. If he wants to be home then he will ultimately sign a fair extension.

[Sports Guy]

I would assume that MacPhail would delegate things like contract negotiations.

Not if it was a with a player that the current regime f'ed up on.

[Mackus]

so what if we traded DCab for him. We offer a good extension and if he doesn't sign it we deal him this offseason or next deadline and get more back then we gave up. If he wants to be home then he will ultimately sign a fair extension.

What does fair mean? If he signs, it'll be for about $20M+ a season over at least 8 years.

[rolliefingers]

With the talk of long term deals for pitchers and the obvious pitfalls of giving them I was curious at to what kind of insurance teams have against this.

E.g. If a pitcher is signed to a 6yr 90m contract and he breaks down with a career ending injury is there not any kind of legal insurance taken out against this? I.e. to reduce the financial risks?

Insurance policies are part of the calculus a team has to make when trying to sign a player. The way I understand it, teams have to shop around for an insurance company that will cover the player in question, and that company decides whether or not it's a worthwhile risk, based on the player's injury history and God-knows-what-else.

If a company won't insure a certain player for a certain contract, then the team has to decide if they're willing to take the risk.

BTW, I wonder how much of Ordonez's contract the Tigers were able to insure? That was one hell of a risk, even though there were out clauses galore in there.

[JTrea81]

I don't see how this can said with any certainty.

Well I'm going on trends. He's regressed each year under Mazzone. He progressed under Miller. For some reason Mazzone doesn't seem to be helping him at all, or at least the results aren't showing. DCab is the only weak link besides Steve Trachsel in the rotation. Curt Schilling could easily equal or surpass his #'s next year if we were to sign him to a one year deal. We could compete by trading DCab, Liz and Hoey for Tex and trading for a LFer and then signing Schilling to fill DCab's spot as a #3. That rotation would be good enough. Also it shows that we want to win, and maybe we can convince Bedard to stay if we do that.

[Ruzious]

Well I'm going on trends. He's regressed each year under Mazzone. He progressed under Miller. For some reason Mazzone doesn't seem to be helping him at all, or at least the results aren't showing. DCab is the only weak link besides Steve Trachsel in the rotation. Curt Schilling could easily equal or surpass his #'s next year if we were to sign him to a one year deal. We could compete by trading DCab, Liz and Hoey for Tex and trading for a LFer and then signing Schilling to fill DCab's spot as a #3. That rotation would be good enough. Also it shows that we want to win, and maybe we can convince Bedard to stay if we do that.

Why would Schilling come here - when he can play his last year or so with a contender? And why would the O's be interested in a stop-gap like him? Plus, you'd probably be throwing away a draft choice to get him. And what assets would the O's have left to trade for a good LFer?

[Leitch]

Why would Schilling come here - when he can play his last year or so with a contender?

Assuming he could?

[Mackus]

I don't see how this can said with any certainty.

You can't say it with certainty but I think the odds are overwhelmingly against Cabrera ever becoming the type of pitcher so many think he can be. I think his ceiling is now a #3/4 type starter. I'd trade that for Tex in an instant. I'd rather move Cabrera than Olson at this point.

[Ruzious]

Assuming he could?

He could if he has anything left. So, basically the only way he comes here is if - he's done and just wants to collect a paycheck. Right?

[Ruzious]

You can't say it with certainty but I think the odds are overwhelmingly against Cabrera ever becoming the type of pitcher so many think he can be. I think his ceiling is now a #3/4 type starter. I'd trade that for Tex in an instant. I'd rather move Cabrera than Olson at this point.

Well, his ceiling is higher than that. He might not reach it, but that doesn't change it.

[Flosman]

Now imagine being in Bedard's shoes and Duq saying to you.".ummm.. we are going to have to get back to you on that...we have to ask Uncle Pete."

I would think nothing of it and if a player had a ounce of sense niether would they. THe FO is ownerships agent in the negotiations, just like the agent is the players rep. Both representitives in most negotiations have a window that they can strike a deal in if something gets outside of that window authorization needs to be obtained from the actual party. Sometimes that is not something that can be obtained instantly. Someone that does much business understands this and are not offended by it. But actually it sounds if the two sides where far apart and that is the real problem. I am sure the O's will wish they met his demands when they talk this winter.

[Objectivity]

Well, his ceiling is higher than that. He might not reach it, but that doesn't change it.

How many years does it take to realize that his ceiling may not be any higher? We are always hesitant to make moves because the player we have's ceiling is higher than the proven talent of the person we're getting in return.

Yes, sometimes we'll get burned. But, I'd much rather get burned one time out of every 100 than not make the 99 deals where the proven talent already exceeds the maximum potential that will be achieved by the person we currently have.

We need to stop acting as if every player in our system should be valued as if their potential is that of a hall-of-fame player. At some point, we need to visit reality and value our players at their actual current value. With prospects, it's ok to project a bit, but Cabrera has been a starter on this team for four years. At some point, even at 26 years old, you need to start assuming this is all that he will ever be.

As far as Texieria goes, someone had a good point. If he goes to LA we have a better chance at signing him to a long-term deal than trading for him now and risk having him realize that playing for the home team isn't great if management is totally backward (assuming things don't change)

[Boy Howdy]

I wonder if the Rangers are less likely to send Tex to the Orioles since he went public with his desire to play in Baltimore.

Sometimes, players get shipped to a particular club (contender, near family, etc...) as a way of saying thanks when circumstances force them to be moved. In this case, the reverse may be true.

Of course, the Rangers will ultimately do what they think is best for their own organization, but they may harbor some resentment towards Tex for lettings his feelings about the O's and the Rangers manager become part of the public record.

I think, all things being equal, the Rangers might send Tex to 'baseball Siberia', even if that's a World Series-bound Angels team in this particular case.

I really hope tonight won't be Cabrera's last game in an Orioles uniform. I'd like to see him pitch a shutout for the O's on opening day 2009, while free agent addition Tex provides the game-winning hit.