What’s your OPS and WAR/162 prediction for Rutschman next year?

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What I expect in his rookie year vs. what I expect in his prime are a bit different.   He’ll be a pretty mature rookie though.   This isn’t Vlad Jr. coming up at age 20.   

He's old enough that his rookie year might encompass his prime.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's old enough that his rookie year might encompass his prime.

It's likely, AR will be in his age 24 season in 2022. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's old enough that his rookie year might encompass his prime.

Physically, he’s in his prime.  Experientially, he’s not.   Players differ a lot.   Will 2022 be one of Rutschman’s top 5 seasons?   Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it being too 3.   

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

After his first 298 PA as of this morning, B-Ref has Wander's Catch Me If You Can opening move as .811, and about 8 WAR/162.

Have at it, Adley.

[SCJeff]

723 OPS and 1.9 WAR/162. Think he struggles initially, then goes on a tear only to slump again at the end of the season as pitchers make adjustments against him again. All this will make him better in year 2 and beyond. 

[Can_of_corn]

I think folks are underestimating how much WAR he is going to accumulate with his defense.

[sportsfan8703]

He’ll be a top 10 catcher in MLB from day 1. He will only go up from there. 

[LA2]

.785-.798. Catching and game-managing such a rag-tag pitching staff is going to have its toll on his hitting, just as it did on Wieters. I also think major-league pitchers are going to find holes in his relatively long swing.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He’ll be a top 10 catcher in MLB from day 1. He will only go up from there. 

I don’t want to jinx it, but AR is probably closer to a top 5 catcher his rookie season. 

After the Wieters hype train I’m just going to sit back and watch AR play, but I really believe he will be a generational player. 

[RZNJ]

Johnny Bench was a good defensive catcher.   He put up a 5 WAR season his rookie year and was basically with 1.5-2 dWar most years.  That was 154 games.   His OPS that first year was only .743.

If Rutschman's defense is as good as they say I'm going to go with 5 WAR over 162 games and go with an OPS right around .800.

[Pickles]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are underestimating how much WAR he is going to accumulate with his defense.

Bingo.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are underestimating how much WAR he is going to accumulate with his defense.

Depends which flavor of WAR.   Fangraphs counts framing heavily, while I’m not sure BB-ref counts it at all.   

[Frobby]

Here’s the top 5 fWAR catchers and how they rank per rWAR:

Posey 4.8, 3.5

Realmuto 4.6, 3.5

Smith 4.6, 3.4

Zunino 4.4, 3.7

Grandal 3.8, 3.9

To be projecting Rutschman at 5.0 as a rookie is asking a lot.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the top 5 fWAR catchers and how they rank per rWAR:

Posey 4.8, 3.5

Realmuto 4.6, 3.5

Smith 4.6, 3.4

Zunino 4.4, 3.7

Grandal 3.8, 3.9

To be projecting Rutschman at 5.0 as a rookie is asking a lot.

 

Almost as if he was considered the best prospect in baseball.

 

 

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Almost as if he was considered the best prospect in baseball.

 

 

How often does the best prospect in baseball have the highest WAR at his position of anyone in the majors as a rookie?   

Mike Trout did it.   That was like 10 years ago.   Let me know if you’re aware of any others.