2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[seak05]

The last high school player to go 1:1 overall was Royce Lewis in 2017, he still hasn't made the majors (horrible injury luck)

2016: Moniak: -.1 career WAR

2014: Aiken: never made majors

2012: Correa - 30.9 WAR

So in the last decade 4 high schoolers have been taken 1:1, and exactly 1 turned into even a major league regular. Jones might become a superstar, but it's much more likely he barely makes an impact. Lee might not become a superstar, but he's likely to become a solid regular. I'm fine with going for the high upside HS player, but if your expectation is anything other then just make the major leagues, you're likely to be disappointed 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What is the average time to ML debut for a HS 1-1?

I bet it's pretty quick.

Manny was in MLB at 20. Maybe it takes Jones a little bit longer if his hit tool is in question. 

[RZNJ]

I think the fact that Termarr came for a workout at OPACY means something.  I doubt they ask him to do that unless he's in serious consideration.   I also believe that he gets them the most savings underslot at #1, among the names mentioned.  Another LH bat (all of Elias top picks bat LH).  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think the fact that Termarr came for a workout at OPACY means something.  I doubt they ask him to do that unless he's in serious consideration.   I also believe that he gets them the most savings underslot at #1, among the names mentioned.  Another LH bat (all of Elias picks bat LH).  

I had no idea that Jordan Westburg bats left handed.

Thanks for that information.

I don't know how I got that mixed up.

[Flash- bd]

17 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

Players who stood out at 2022 Draft Combine workout (mlb.com)

 

Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola (Fla.) JC
Collier reclassified from the 2023 Draft to 2022, graduated early and attended junior college in what would have been his junior high school season, then headed to the Cape Cod League and became the youngest player (age 17) anyone could remember in the recent history of the prestigious summer circuit. After going 3-for-9 with three walks in his first three games on the Cape, he flew to San Diego and took one of the best rounds of batting practice. The son of former big league infielder Lou Collier didn't shoot for the fences and repeatedly barreled balls with one of the best left-handed strokes in this Draft.

 

Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (Atlanta)
The highest-ranked prospect to participate in the workout, Johnson is the best high school hitter in recent memory. He took a professional batting practice, working the ball around the park and displaying effortless pull-side power.

For all that I'm reading about Temarr Johnson's bat and how it's a special one, and combine that with the fact he's a 2B where a premium bat there provides huge surplus value, I'm a bit confused why he's not much much more in the discussion for the #1 pick. 

[OriolesMagic83]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think the fact that Termarr came for a workout at OPACY means something.  I doubt they ask him to do that unless he's in serious consideration.   I also believe that he gets them the most savings underslot at #1, among the names mentioned.  Another LH bat (all of Elias picks bat LH).  

With Elias emphasis on drafting LH bats, I wonder if moving the left field wall back was a priority from the moment he took over. 

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I had no idea that Jordan Westburg bats left handed.

Thanks for that information.

I don't know how I got that mixed up.

Meant to say all of his top picks. Adley, Kjerstad, and Cowser.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Meant to say all of his top picks. Adley, Kjerstad, and Cowser.

I'd say three picks isn't much of a sample size, especially when one of the three is a switch hitter.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

With Elias emphasis on drafting LH bats, I wonder if moving the left field wall back was a priority from the moment he took over. 

I'd bet it was.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say three picks isn't much of a sample size, especially when one of the three is a switch hitter.

Just pointing out that all 3 picks bat LH. Take it for what it's worth 

[Explosivo]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd bet it was.

Makes sense and also gives Elias a huge edge in evaluation over his peers. Shielding knowledge like that over the years creates a disparity between in evaluation and calculation. Now that the rug has been pulled, it changes the calculus.

[seak05]

BTW I find it mildly ironic that the best 1:1 HS pick of the last decade was an under-slot, cost saving signing. Especially at the HS level the draft is a crapshoot, I just find the idea that there is only one clear right answer to be laughable. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, seak05 said:

BTW I find it mildly ironic that the best 1:1 HS pick of the last decade was an under-slot, cost saving signing. Especially at the HS level the draft is a crapshoot, I just find the idea that there is only one clear right answer to be laughable. 

I need to play craps with you guys.

Make sure to bring cash.

[Aristotelian]

32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

With Elias emphasis on drafting LH bats, I wonder if moving the left field wall back was a priority from the moment he took over. 

I don't know about from the moment he took over, but looking at our pipeline now it absolutely makes sense. Disadvantages any RH heavy opponents with relatively less impact on our guys. 

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Witt beat Adley.

Definitely not Adley's fault...it was not based on Adley's performance.