2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m saying when you watch these drafts, for all sports, You usuallY see the draft boards and the players ranked.

When the GMs discuss it, they talk about this.  
 

Now, is it possible that team X doesn’t rank players?  I guess but I find that hard to believe.  It’s not really logical, especially when you have the first pick.  
 

Someone suggested players might be ranked in tiers. You could possibly have a group of 3 or 4 players that you consider almost equal and the deciding factor is signing bonus.  This could the case at #1, #33, or #46, etc..  Just saying that could be.  I don't know and I'm guessing you don't either.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Someone suggested players might be ranked in tiers. You could possibly have a group of 3 or 4 players that you consider almost equal and the deciding factor is signing bonus.  This could the case at #1, #33, or #46, etc..  Just saying that could be.  I don't know and I'm guessing you don't either.

I think it’s highly unlikely they rank 3 guys the same way.  In other words, there isn’t a 3 way tie for first place.

Someone is 1, someone 2, etc….now, they could determine that difference between 1 and 3 is very little and since #3 is cheaper, we are going that route.  I’m not saying that can’t/won’t/doesn’t happen.

In fact, it likely happens all the time.  Last year, you heard that Lawlar fell because of bonus demands.  That wasn’t talent related, it was money related. 
 

I don’t feel you should make these decisions based on money especially under the circumstances in which the Os got there with this pick.

[Sports Guy]

Elias said this draft is like the Adley draft.  

With that draft, he felt there were 3 players that could be the #1 pick in a lot of drafts. 
 

So, if you look at that and he says he has 5 players in mind, I doubt he believes 5 guys from this draft could be the first pick in other drafts…although I guess he could mean it as a lower slot pick, ala what Pitt did last year.

But if you were to take that comment on face value, I have to think he means guys with the talent level to go 1 in other drafts.

I think Jones and Green fit that criteria.  Who else?  I don’t see Johnson because of his size, position and questionable athleticism.  I don’t see Lee or Berry.

Holliday is the other guy I could see.  Maybe Collier?

So I think he is really down to 3-4 guys, not 5-6.  He mentioned the gamesmanship of the draft, so I think some of that is in play here.

[seak05]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, the team already has these guys ranked in tiers.  Elias is saying they are choosing between 5 guys.  That’s the tier.  They will now rank those 5 by whatever criteria they use and make a decision based on those rankings.

Yeah but the distinctions within a tier are usually fairly small, it’s between tiers that have the bigger distinctions. So if you have two guys in the same tier but one is a SS maybe that pushes him to the top etc

Also let me just say I would not be upset at Collier. Performing well as a younger player (in a class) has historically been a very good indicator 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias said this draft is like the Adley draft.  

With that draft, he felt there were 3 players that could be the #1 pick in a lot of drafts. 
 

So, if you look at that and he says he has 5 players in mind, I doubt he believes 5 guys from this draft could be the first pick in other drafts…although I guess he could mean it as a lower slot pick, ala what Pitt did last year.

But if you were to take that comment on face value, I have to think he means guys with the talent level to go 1 in other drafts.

I think Jones and Green fit that criteria.  Who else?  I don’t see Johnson because of his size, position and questionable athleticism.  I don’t see Lee or Berry.

Holliday is the other guy I could see.  Maybe Collier?

So I think he is really down to 3-4 guys, not 5-6.  He mentioned the gamesmanship of the draft, so I think some of that is in play here.

If I had to bet, I think he takes Lee.

[seak05]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias said this draft is like the Adley draft.  

With that draft, he felt there were 3 players that could be the #1 pick in a lot of drafts. 
 

So, if you look at that and he says he has 5 players in mind, I doubt he believes 5 guys from this draft could be the first pick in other drafts…although I guess he could mean it as a lower slot pick, ala what Pitt did last year.

But if you were to take that comment on face value, I have to think he means guys with the talent level to go 1 in other drafts.

I think Jones and Green fit that criteria.  Who else?  I don’t see Johnson because of his size, position and questionable athleticism.  I don’t see Lee or Berry.

Holliday is the other guy I could see.  Maybe Collier?

So I think he is really down to 3-4 guys, not 5-6.  He mentioned the gamesmanship of the draft, so I think some of that is in play here.

college bats have tended to be the #1 pick lately. I get that you're primarily looking at upside potential, but the Orioles will also consider floor, and Lee has the highest floor (probably followed by Jones because the defense should be elite even if he can't hit). The failure rate for HS is very high, even top picks. In this draft I would take a high schooler, but I think you're discounting the college guys. Keep in mind one of the reasons you've heard more about Lee's shortcomings is he's played three extra years at a higher level. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, seak05 said:

college bats have tended to be the #1 pick lately. I get that you're primarily looking at upside potential, but the Orioles will also consider floor, and Lee has the highest floor (probably followed by Jones because the defense should be elite even if he can't hit). The failure rate for HS is very high, even top picks. In this draft I would take a high schooler, but I think you're discounting the college guys. Keep in mind one of the reasons you've heard more about Lee's shortcomings is he's played three extra years at a higher level. 

How many failed #1 picks out of HS have there been?  Brien Taylor is 1.  Who else?

And I’m not discounting the college players.  If we were picking 4th or 5th, I would be fine with Lee.  But we aren’t.  We are picking first.  The first pick is overwhelmingly the most valuable pick in the draft and the career WARs bare that out.  It’s just a fact.

Going safe to spend money later is an awful strategy especially when it’s completely unnecessary to do so and when you have made it  point to field a completely inept team for years and the only advantage you get out of that is the draft.  So, to play it safe when there is high end elite HS talent there (which elias himself has said) is not a good decision.

 

 

[Aristotelian]

It's possible that either strategy could be valid, with outcome depending on whether they are executed well or poorly, plus luck.

[DocJJ]

HS #1 overall picks that did not do as well as predicted (even though some were sort of ok...) in past 25 years:

 

Delmon Young (although he sure had an all-time great Oriole hit!)

Tim Beckham 

Dansby Swanson (although he's doing well this year!)

Matt Bush (worst 1st pick ever, taken 1 pick in front of Justin Verlander).

Mickey Moniak - still early, but looking like a bust

Brady Aiken- another good option for worst 1st ever

 

There is an element of luck that can't be dismissed.   Let's pray to the baseball gods this year that whoever the O's take will be a stud!

 

 

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias said this draft is like the Adley draft.  

With that draft, he felt there were 3 players that could be the #1 pick in a lot of drafts. 
 

So, if you look at that and he says he has 5 players in mind, I doubt he believes 5 guys from this draft could be the first pick in other drafts…although I guess he could mean it as a lower slot pick, ala what Pitt did last year.

But if you were to take that comment on face value, I have to think he means guys with the talent level to go 1 in other drafts.

I think Jones and Green fit that criteria.  Who else?  I don’t see Johnson because of his size, position and questionable athleticism.  I don’t see Lee or Berry.

Holliday is the other guy I could see.  Maybe Collier?

So I think he is really down to 3-4 guys, not 5-6.  He mentioned the gamesmanship of the draft, so I think some of that is in play here.

I take him at face value. He first said 6 and then more likely 5.

1. Jones 

2. Holiday

3. Green

4. Brooks Lee

5. Termarr Johson

I'm guessing the 6th guy was either Johnson or Jacob Berry.

He likened this to the 2019 draft. He basically said you could have made a case for any one of Adley, Witt, or Vaughn with the first pick.

Now, he's saying you could make a case for anyone of 5.  

[Getz]

I feel like they'll take Brooks Lee. If you look at the player profile Elias has drafted, Lee fits the bill.

If they take a highschooler it's going to take more time to join this core in the bigs so I think they will settle for the floor of a college player and go underslot. Then do some overslot deals like they did with Gunnar and Mayo.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Getz said:

I feel like they'll take Brooks Lee. If you look at the player profile Elias has drafted, Lee fits the bill.

If they take a highschooler it's going to take more time to join this core in the bigs so I think they will settle for the floor of a college player and go underslot. Then do some overslot deals like they did with Gunnar and Mayo.

What is the average time to ML debut for a HS 1-1?

I bet it's pretty quick.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What is the average time to ML debut for a HS 1-1?

I bet it's pretty quick.

Sure, and look at last year.  Lawlar is only one level behind Cowser and could certainly get to the majors first.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Sure, and look at last year.  Lawlar is only one level behind Cowser and could certainly get to the majors first.

Witt beat Adley.

[WI O’s Fan]

He said this draft there is not Rodriquez or Harper.  I take that as saying Jones is not head and shoulders about the other 4.   I agree it is probably down to 3: Jones, Holliday, and Lee.

Comps:  

Jones = Adam Jones

Holliday = M. Meyers

Lee = Bregman

 

Edited June 19, 2022 by WI O’s Fan