Who is the Orioles 2021 #6 prospect?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's the age though. That's the difference. Henderson's essentially 2 years ahead of Westburg, even if he wasn't as good this year.

Yea.  That has to be the deciding factor.  Are you trading Henderson for Westburg?

I’m going Westburg #7 (assuming Henderson goes 6th) but I think an argument can be made for others.  

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yea.  That has to be the deciding factor.  Are you trading Henderson for Westburg?

I know the answer, but kind of feel it's closer than some might think. The hope is Henderson can clean up his game. If he does, his power is just too tantalizing to pass over. 

[Ruzious]

I wonder if the O's might project Westburg to 2nd base - in the Jonathan Schoop mold - a big guy with a strong arm expert at turning the double play.  He's never going to be looked at as a flashy SS, but let's not just assume he needs to go to 3B.  

[Sports Guy]

Judging by what Tony just said in the Hall thread, this may not be Henderson.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Judging by what Tony just said in the Hall thread, this may not be Henderson.

Ot it's still Henderson, he just thinks Henderson has slipped past Hall. 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Judging by what Tony just said in the Hall thread, this may not be Henderson.

I hope he’s just scared off by visions of Billy Rowell. 

[sportsfan8703]

For all the K talk around Gunnar, he played at the same three levels as Westburg, while being 2 years younger, and only struck out 16 more times. I’m not hating on Westburg, but he had a lot of big time baseball in the SEC. meanwhile Gunnar was a HS pick that had two Covid shortened seasons. Plus, as Buck Britton(manager in AA) pointed out, Westburg was struggling with premium FB velocity inside. 
 

After years of losing, I’m going ceiling over floor. I love Westburg, but I might put Stowers in front of him too. Look at the leap Stowers made from 2019 in Aberdeen, his draft year, to 2021 where he won co POY with the #1 prospect in all of baseball. 
 

Then we get to Bradish. I’m just completely skeptical that we can turn one of these projected mid to back rotation arms even into a rotation piece at the MLB level. We literally have watched everyone of these types fail over the last 2-3 seasons. 
 

Overall, what makes me excited about this system isn’t just the high ceilings of our top 10, but what our 11-20 is going to look like. It’s not going to be SP that you have to ignore a ton of flaws, relievers, or low value 1B/DH types.
 

You go back and read posts from 3 years ago when Elias took over and the dream was to have a system of actual prospects that stretched from 50-75 deep. We’re real close to that especially with the #1 pick and pool coming up this draft, plus if we make any trades(Severino, Mancini, Sulser, etc…), and a legit international class that is either already stateside or will be here next year.
 

The biggest question mark going forward is do we have have enough rotation depth to start a run in the near future. Weren’t not there yet. 

[RZNJ]

On 10/29/2021 at 12:42 PM, LookinUp said:

It's the age though. That's the difference. Henderson's essentially 2 years ahead of Westburg, even if he wasn't as good this year.

Sure but Westburg basically did in AA what Henderson did in High A and Westburg doesn't exhibit as much swing and miss as Henderson.    Henderson's upside is a power hitting SS.   Westburg's upside is a power hitting SS.    Westburg has a better chance of hitting that upside at this point, IMO.

[Just Regular]

The peculiar thing about Gunnar to me is in the first three years of Elias drafts, it is the one instance of Elias seemingly picking a Stars and Scrubs fork in the road.   Behind chalk Adley, he went overslot.   Spreadsheeted the Top 5 rounds of 2019-2021 drafts, and...

2021 Orioles Overall Picks: 5, 41, 65, 76, 106, 137

2021 Bonus Ranks of O's: 8, 45, 56, 72*, 89, 124, 131      (~72nd highest bonus for 8th round Creed Willems)

2020 Orioles Overall Picks: 2, 30, 39, 74, 103, 133

2020 Bonus Ranks of O's: 7, 34, 45, 49, 56, 80

2019 Orioles Overall Picks: 1, 42, 71, 79, 108, 138

2019 Bonus Ranks of O's: 1, 31, 78, 86, 125, 133        (31st highest bonus for Gunnar Henderson).

Elias stretched to take Gunnar away from Auburn, where he might have been another "tooled-up NCAA" shortstop ala Westburg.   That and the youth are why I have a little more hopes for Henderson between the two.

The Bonus Ranks above may be a little imprecise because of 6th round and on guys like Willems who got more $$$ than a little bit of Top 5 round guys, but those are fairly thin on the ground.

[HowAboutThat]

I guess Tony takes the weekend off? Or is he really spending three days pondering who is number six?

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

I guess Tony takes the weekend off? Or is he really spending three days pondering who is number six?

Tony already knows the order.

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

I guess Tony takes the weekend off? Or is he really spending three days pondering who is number six?

He always releases them on Monday through Friday.

[LookinUp]

22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sure but Westburg basically did in AA what Henderson did in High A and Westburg doesn't exhibit as much swing and miss as Henderson.    Henderson's upside is a power hitting SS.   Westburg's upside is a power hitting SS.    Westburg has a better chance of hitting that upside at this point, IMO.

I don’t think this is a crazy position. The consensus seems to be that Henderson’s upside is pretty elite. I’m not sure he has a high probability of getting there. I think Westburg’s probably more likely to be valuable. Look forward to seeing Tony’s write-ups on them.

[HowAboutThat]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony already knows the order.

Duh. It was a joke.

I see I have to adjust for my audience.

[HowAboutThat]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

He always releases them on Monday through Friday.

Yeah. I figured. It was more a reflection of my eagerness to get on with it.