Melewski on Mike Baumann

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Seemed like a legitimate question. This board is really heading in an unpleasant direction. 

It's not a legitimate question because I know he reads all of my stuff and I've clearly explained what I saw in Baumann including a very detailed scouting report in his prospect report this year. A few good starts in AAA doesn't offset the stuff it's being performed with. 

Anyone on this board should be smart enough to know that AAA success is not a 100% guarantee of major league success. A small sample size in AAA is an even worse indicator. The overall talent difference between AAA and the major leagues is immense.

McKenna tore up AAA, but as I said, he struggles with velocity. Well what do you know, he gets to major leagues and they threw him 62.3% fastball in which he hit just .177 with a .317 SLG and a 34.1% WHIFF at the major league level.

Statistics are an indicator that a player could have future success at the major league level, but how they are doing is what really matters. 

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony, How does Baumann get a 2.00 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP at AAA with the mediocre stuff you are describing?

Small sample size?  
 

Wildcard, we do this stuff with you all the time.  Why do you always put so much emphasis on small sample sizes?  Why do they carry so much weight for you?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not a scout, but his stuff we saw at the end of the year didn’t look good.   It wasn’t just the poor results.   All we can do is cross our fingers and hope that with a winter of rest his stuff looks better next year.   

Yea I think this is the real point.  I mentioned it earlier and Tony showed the data.  It’s not the results and yes, the sample size is small no matter how you look at it but he looked bad, stuff wise.  Maybe it was a blip or mechanical issue or whatever.  Again it’s a very SSS.

But the bottom line is that he went through a bad injury and we don’t know what he will look like coming out of that.  He was terrible early in the year, got better in the middle and was bad at the end.   
 

We have no idea how he will do going forward.  The info we have now and the info we have always had suggests he will be a reliever at best.  Maybe he will work out things this offseason and be back to his pre-injury self.  But I don’t think anything we saw last year, including the AA and AAA innings, should make us think this is going to happen.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Small sample size?  
 

Wildcard, we do this stuff with you all the time.  Why do you always put so much emphasis on small sample sizes?  Why do they carry so much weight for you?

You mean like 10 innings in the majors.   At the end of the season.   After he debuted vs KC with a  95 mph fastball with his family in attendance, he followed it with a 92-93 fastball vs two of the best hitting teams in baseball, the Blue Jays and then Boston.  I think he did all he could do vs KC has had little left for the better offenses.  Remember Baumann was working his way back from an injury.   

But with rest it will be interesting to see what he looks like in ST.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

You mean like 10 innings in the majors.   At the end of the season.   After he debuted vs KC with a  95 mph fastball with his family in attendance, he followed it with a 92-93 fastball vs two of the best hitting teams in baseball, the Blue Jays and then Boston.  I think he did all he could do vs KC has had little left for the better offenses.  Remember Baumann was working his way back from an injury.   

But with rest it will be interesting to see what he looks like in ST.

Yes, the SSS at the end of the ML season..which I have addressed and admitted to.  
 

This conversation goes beyond one season where he threw 80ish innings.  This conversation is also about his age, his injury and where he was pre injury..and at that time, he was never thought of as a sure thing starter.  

[HowAboutThat]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

AAA hitters are not major league hitters.

Feel free to stay on the lollipop guild of prospect evaluation or you can actually believe someone who will tell you the truth whether its what we want to hear as an Orioles fan or not.

Your choice. But please don't disrespect me here and suggest I don't know what I'm doing or talking about. 

And even if you don't trust my scouting, maybe look at the actual data provided in statcast and then look at how it compares to successful major league pitching. 

Yes, that's lot of work, but instead, just quote some AAA stats and Melewski's rainbows and sunshine outlook. 

 

Toney, I don’t think wildcard was being disrespectful, I think he was just asking for clarification. Everyone really enjoy your comments, even the comments that say, “this guy is never gonna be anything“ honesty can be unpleasant, but it is always honest.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not a legitimate question because I know he reads all of my stuff and I've clearly explained what I saw in Baumann including a very detailed scouting report in his prospect report this year. A few good starts in AAA doesn't offset the stuff it's being performed with. 

Anyone on this board should be smart enough to know that AAA success is not a 100% guarantee of major league success. A small sample size in AAA is an even worse indicator. The overall talent difference between AAA and the major leagues is immense.

McKenna tore up AAA, but as I said, he struggles with velocity. Well what do you know, he gets to major leagues and they threw him 62.3% fastball in which he hit just .177 with a .317 SLG and a 34.1% WHIFF at the major league level.

Statistics are an indicator that a player could have future success at the major league level, but how they are doing is what really matters. 

 

 

 

Wildcard simply asked a question. Baumann has some pretty good numbers at multiple levels. Acting like he is accusing you of lying is crazy. No need to jump down his throat. I really hope that is not the tone you are trying to model.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

A lot?  Probably not but .25 run is significant.  
 

That being said, what is that league average based off of that you are citing?  How many innings?  Was it those who qualify? Only 38 pitchers qualified for the ERA title during the season.  It appears that the average ERA for those guys is better than 4.26.  But as you start to reduce the innings limit that changes quickly.  
 

 

 

4.26 was the overall league ERA. A lot is subjective so maybe .25 run and .004 WHIP is a lot to you so no need to debate further nor over the meaning of average.

[jabba72]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

4.26 was the overall league ERA. A lot is subjective so maybe .25 run and .004 WHIP is a lot to you so no need to debate further nor over the meaning of average.

In the AL East a 4.00 ERA would be a revelation. So yes in this division I think .26 is significant. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

4.26 was the overall league ERA. A lot is subjective so maybe .25 run and .004 WHIP is a lot to you so no need to debate further nor over the meaning of average.

First of all, I don’t care about WHIp.  It’s a poor stat to use.

Secondly, is that league ERA including relievers?  Because that changes a lot.

For example, in 2021, 115 ML starters pitched at least 100 innings.  There were 57 pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or better. If you look at just the AL, only 57 (of those 115) pitchers pitched 100 innings.  Of those 57, 29 had an ERA of 4 or better.  I think putting that down for Baumann is extremely unrealistic unless he’s a reliever.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Toney, I don’t think wildcard was being disrespectful, I think he was just asking for clarification. Everyone really enjoy your comments, even the comments that say, “this guy is never gonna be anything“ honesty can be unpleasant, but it is always honest.

 

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Wildcard simply asked a question. Baumann has some pretty good numbers at multiple levels. Acting like he is accusing you of lying is crazy. No need to jump down his throat. I really hope that is not the tone you are trying to model.

Whether he meant to or not, its either disrespectful or shows a lack of knowledge to read everything I've written about a player and then turn around and ask me why a pitcher pitched so well over a small sample size in AAA.

Wildcard has been around here a long time and it's frustrating to be called out like that because I don't believe for a second that he thinks a few starts in AAA means anything when I've given him all the information, including statcast info which is not based on my eyes.

Now maybe Wildcard really does believe in the Jim Hunter small sample sizes. Maybe he was just asking a question that he really wanted to know, or maybe he wanted to act like those few starts make all of the information and time I've put into scouting Baumann at question because Melewski and MLBpipeline tells him that a 27-year old pitcher is going to be a stud. 

I'm not always going to be right, but if you are going to contradict something I said scouting wise you need to bring more than statistics for a few AAA starts at the end of last season.

As for the tone, you are way too sensitive. You're the only one that reports Sports Guy constantly and calls it trolling when he's literally just explaining his point of view. Sure, he can be gruff sometimes and when he goes too far I let him know, but I spend more time dealing with your reported posts than I should. 

Reported posts should be obvious violations of board rules, not because you don't like a guy. I've asked you to block him yet I see you just responded to him. 

The board is not changing it's tone. People are going to get upset with people and that's going to include me sometimes. The good news I don't hold grudges. 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Whether he meant to or not, its either disrespectful or shows a lack of knowledge to read everything I've written about a player and then turn around and ask me why a pitcher pitched so well over a small sample size in AAA.

Wildcard has been around here a long time and it's frustrating to be called out like that because I don't believe for a second that he thinks a few starts in AAA means anything when I've given him all the information, including statcast info which is not based on my eyes.

Now maybe Wildcard really does believe in the Jim Hunter small sample sizes. Maybe he was just asking a question that he really wanted to know, or maybe he wanted to act like those few starts make all of the information and time I've put into scouting Baumann at question because Melewski and MLBpipeline tells him that a 27-year old pitcher is going to be a stud. 

I'm not always going to be right, but if you are going to contradict something I said scouting wise you need to bring more than statistics for a few AAA starts at the end of last season.

As for the tone, you are way too sensitive. You're the only one that reports Sports Guy constantly and calls it trolling when he's literally just explaining his point of view. Sure, he can be gruff sometimes and when he goes too far I let him know, but I spend more time dealing with your reported posts than I should. 

Reported posts should be obvious violations of board rules, not because you don't like a guy. I've asked you to block him yet I see you just responded to him. 

The board is not changing it's tone. People are going to get upset with people and that's going to include me sometimes. The good news I don't hold grudges. 

 

 

Sensitive? You are accusing wildcard of disrespect. Unbelievable.

[Aristotelian]

36 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

In the AL East a 4.00 ERA would be a revelation. So yes in this division I think .26 is significant. 

Don't get me wrong, I agree, if Baumann were to become a league average pitcher for the Orioles that would be a terrific outcome. That was pretty much my point. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Don't get me wrong, I agree, if Baumann were to become a league average pitcher for the Orioles that would be a terrific outcome. That was pretty much my point. 

But again, are you talking as a starter or a reliever?  If it’s a starter, sure that would be great but likely unrealistic as of right now.(to be fair, you did say target numbers and didn’t say this would be your 2022 expectation).

As a reliever, that would be pretty underwhelming numbers although there would probably be a place in the pen for him as your 5th-7th option.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Whether he meant to or not, its either disrespectful or shows a lack of knowledge to read everything I've written about a player and then turn around and ask me why a pitcher pitched so well over a small sample size in AAA.

Wildcard has been around here a long time and it's frustrating to be called out like that because I don't believe for a second that he thinks a few starts in AAA means anything when I've given him all the information, including statcast info which is not based on my eyes.

Now maybe Wildcard really does believe in the Jim Hunter small sample sizes. Maybe he was just asking a question that he really wanted to know, or maybe he wanted to act like those few starts make all of the information and time I've put into scouting Baumann at question because Melewski and MLBpipeline tells him that a 27-year old pitcher is going to be a stud. 

I'm not always going to be right, but if you are going to contradict something I said scouting wise you need to bring more than statistics for a few AAA starts at the end of last season.

As for the tone, you are way too sensitive. You're the only one that reports Sports Guy constantly and calls it trolling when he's literally just explaining his point of view. Sure, he can be gruff sometimes and when he goes too far I let him know, but I spend more time dealing with your reported posts than I should. 

Reported posts should be obvious violations of board rules, not because you don't like a guy. I've asked you to block him yet I see you just responded to him. 

The board is not changing it's tone. People are going to get upset with people and that's going to include me sometimes. The good news I don't hold grudges. 

 

 

You act like I am challenging your scouting ability and I am not.   I agree with what you have said about Baumann in the majors.   But because you look at videos I thought you may have seen Baumann at AAA.  I thought maybe you had some insight about why he did so well there.   All I got as an answer was that AAA hitters  are not that good.   Nothing about his stuff or command at AAA.   

If you didn't see him than you did not see him at AAA and that is all I wanted to know.