5 Orioles in top 81 of Keith Law's Top 100 prospects

[Yossarian]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure Henderson has shown the hands to be a 70 defender anywhere on the dirt, but I do feel he will end up an above average defensive third baseman. I don't however see a future Manny Machado unless his hands and throw accuracy really improve.

No - Coby Mayo will move into that role

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, 70 sounds a bit crazy.   But I’ve been heartened by the fact that numerous outside observers have made favorable comments about his defense, even though statistically he was pretty error-prone last year.   Good to know he’s not just a bat.

Henderson is certainly not "just a bat". He's got things to work on defensively and I'd like to see the hands and throw accuracy imporve, but he's a very good athlete who should find a place on the dirt besides first base as a home.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, posters have always complained about Law (1) having some bias against the Orioles, and (2) being unwilling to change his opinions even once contrary evidence develops.   His list and comments on Rodriguez show that neither criticism is really warranted.   

It never really was but Orioles fans are going to be “those fans” every time. #baltimoreinferioritycomplex

[survivedc]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure Henderson has shown the hands to be a 70 defender anywhere on the dirt, but I do feel he will end up an above average defensive third baseman. I don't however see a future Manny Machado unless his hands and throw accuracy really improve.

Maybe my memory of those couple amazing years is rosy, but is Manny only a 70 in the field? Or, was he more than a 70 here, anyway? It was the best 3B I’ve ever seen, some incredible plays.

[MurphDogg]

9 hours ago, survivedc said:

Maybe my memory of those couple amazing years is rosy, but is Manny only a 70 in the field? Or, was he more than a 70 here, anyway? It was the best 3B I’ve ever seen, some incredible plays.

Manny was higher than a 70 when he was here. But there isn't a ton of distance between a 70 and Manny.

70 is essentially top-3 in the league whereas Manny was #1 in MLB as a third baseman.

I certainly haven't heard any other scouts suggest Henderson could be a top-3 defensive third baseman, just that he would be solid and/or above-average. A 70 defensively should be in the conversation for Gold Glove every year.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Manny was higher than a 70 when he was here. But there isn't a ton of distance between a 70 and Manny.

70 is essentially top-3 in the league whereas Manny was #1 in MLB as a third baseman.

I certainly haven't heard any other scouts suggest Henderson could be a top-3 defensive third baseman, just that he would be solid and/or above-average. A 70 defensively should be in the conversation for Gold Glove every year.

It’s interesting that Manny has only won two Gold Gloves.   He’s generally considered a tick behind Arenado in the NL and Chapman in the AL.  He still has the capacity to amaze though.   

[MurphDogg]

Law's list of fourteen players who just missed the top-100 includes Jordan Westburg.

He opines that Westburg is a reach to stay at shortstop but has a no-doubt floor at third base. Says he has 40 double - 20 homer potential, a good two-strike approach and has trouble with right-handed breaking balls. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s interesting that Manny has only won two Gold Gloves.   He’s generally considered a tick behind Arenado in the NL and Chapman in the AL.  He still has the capacity to amaze though.   

From his 20-24 year old years, Machado put up an impressive 10.7 dWAR. From his 25-29 seasons, he's put up just 2.1 dWAR. So I would say we saw Machado at his best early in his career, but he's closer to average defensively,

Baseball Savant shows that he's not very good to his glove side most of his career, but is very good at going towards third base and in on balls, which is where we saw most of his amazing plays. His best years was in 2016 and 2018 according to statcast though dWAR said he was good, but not great in 2018.

I'd say Machado is a 60 defender at 3B right now but may have been a 70 for a few years.

 

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

From his 20-24 year old years, Machado put up an impressive 10.7 dWAR. From his 25-29 seasons, he's put up just 2.1 dWAR. So I would say we saw Machado at his best early in his career, but he's closer to average defensively,

Baseball Savant shows that he's not very good to his glove side most of his career, but is very good at going towards third base and in on balls, which is where we saw most of his amazing plays. His best years was in 2016 and 2018 according to statcast though dWAR said he was good, but not great in 2018.

I'd say Machado is a 60 defender at 3B right now but may have been a 70 for a few years.

 

One thing I’ll say, the Padres have had Manny in short RF a ton vs. LHB so it’s really hard to know how that affects the advanced metrics.    He’s really used differently than any other 3B these days.   

When he’s actually playing at 3B, my impression is he’s a tick slower than he was as a 20-22 year old so his side to side range isn’t quite what it used to be.   His arm is still a rocket and he still has great instincts and the ability to throw from all kinds of weird angles.    Overall, still a very fun defender to watch.   
 

[luismatos4prez]

On 2/1/2022 at 11:01 AM, Tony-OH said:

From his 20-24 year old years, Machado put up an impressive 10.7 dWAR. From his 25-29 seasons, he's put up just 2.1 dWAR. So I would say we saw Machado at his best early in his career, but he's closer to average defensively,

Baseball Savant shows that he's not very good to his glove side most of his career, but is very good at going towards third base and in on balls, which is where we saw most of his amazing plays. His best years was in 2016 and 2018 according to statcast though dWAR said he was good, but not great in 2018.

I'd say Machado is a 60 defender at 3B right now but may have been a 70 for a few years.

 

Is your standard for an 80 "Brooks Robinson but no one else ever"? Young Manny was one of the best defensive 3B in baseball history. Only Scott Rolen and Matt Chapman compare in the last 20 years.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Is your standard for an 80 "Brooks Robinson but no one else ever"? Young Manny was one of the best defensive 3B in baseball history. Only Scott Rolen and Matt Chapman compare in the last 20 years.

I'd say Nolan Arenado does.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Is your standard for an 80 "Brooks Robinson but no one else ever"? Young Manny was one of the best defensive 3B in baseball history. Only Scott Rolen and Matt Chapman compare in the last 20 years.

In 80 for the best is the best of the best. That includes range, arm (accuracy and strength), and hands. Machado was a fantastic defensive 3B for a years with the Orioles and made 80 level plays, but he had a penchant for making a lackadaisical error on occasion and he was never great at going glove side. Hence why I think he was more of a 70 vs an 80 at his peak.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

In 80 for the best is the best of the best. That includes range, arm (accuracy and strength), and hands. Machado was a fantastic defensive 3B for a years with the Orioles and made 80 level plays, but he had a penchant for making a lackadaisical error on occasion and he was never great at going glove side. Hence why I think he was more of a 70 vs an 80 at his peak.

If he was an 80, it was for a short period.  Maybe 2013 when he deservedly won the Platinum Glove.   But generally I agree with you.  

[SilverRocket]

I've never seen anyone better than 2013 Manny, but I thought he lost some range after that year as he bulked up and starting hitting home runs.

[MurphDogg]

On 1/31/2022 at 1:52 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I'm waiting for him to declare the system 10th overall because reasons.

You are correct!

Law's farm system rankings were released today and he did in fact rank the Orioles as 10th. Citing, essentially, reasons. Obviously I think his ranking is silly and while the Orioles may lack depth

This is about as good as a system can get with no contributions from the international side and very little from the trade market.

Obviously I think his ranking is silly and while the Orioles may lack depth, I would certainly take their farm system over all but maybe three teams'. Especially since they are at least spending their international money now, hopefully that bears fruit soon.