Tanner Scott and Cole Sulser traded to Marlins

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Lots of Marlins fans' chatter wondering if Mullins or Hays were discussed.

I have wondered if last night's announcement was a side dish part of what Ng and Elias were able to agree upon now.    I think today the playoff hopes of the 2022 Marlins are a Maybe.   More aggressive Buy moves get more appropriate if they grow to a Yes.

There's also the long game of getting Zach Pop onto waivers so we can get him back - just keep sending ballplayers better than him in 2022 and something may have to give eventually.

[Pickles]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know how he could be confident of that.   No. 67 picks aren’t exactly sure things.  24 of 58 have made it to the majors, only 9 of whom were worth 1+ rWAR.   But obviously the pick is valuable, and provides extra flexibility in how we allocate our bonus pool.   

I truly appreciate how much work you've done over the years attempting to quantify the probabilities for the draft, but I do believe it is rather myopic to value the #67 pick solely by what other #67 picks have done overall.  I think a better a way would be to look at windows, so pick 65-70 would be similarly valued, etc.  Obviously, the debate then becomes about the lines drawn between the picks, but that would do much to flatten out the probabilities, which can be so greatly skewed by one successful player.

But ultimately, you're right: The pick does have value, but is unlikely to yield a truly elite prospect.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

The deal didn't save any money. It cost the Orioles money because the Orioles acquired a comp round B draft pick with a slot value of around $1 million, and the Orioles have never left more than $100,000 or so in draft slot value unspent. Meanwhile the difference in Scott's salary and the minimum salary that his replacement will make is $305,000.

We have, however, deferred payroll/bonuses from the 2nd Quarter to the 3rd Quarter.    So the group dental insurance might not have to be cancelled.   Yet.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I truly appreciate how much work you've done over the years attempting to quantify the probabilities for the draft, but I do believe it is rather myopic to value the #67 pick solely by what other #67 picks have done overall.  I think a better a way would be to look at windows, so pick 65-70 would be similarly valued, etc.  Obviously, the debate then becomes about the lines drawn between the picks, but that would do much to flatten out the probabilities, which can be so greatly skewed by one successful player.

But ultimately, you're right: The pick does have value, but is unlikely to yield a truly elite prospect.

By the way, I completely agree with you. Sometimes when I have more time, I do a range for exactly the reasons you say.  This was just a quick and dirty.  

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, I completely agree with you. Sometimes when I have more time, I do a range for exactly the reasons you say.  This was just a quick and dirty.  

And I just want to be clear, I'm not criticizing.  You've done a lot over the years to really quantify the draft, and it's added a lot to the discussions on this board.

[Morgan423]

20 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Bleier,Pop,Sulser and Scott.

Paging one of you Photoshop masters to make this a boy band album cover, stat.  

[lifelongbirdfan]

Any chance Pop is the PTBNL? 

 

[rm5678]

2 hours ago, lifelongbirdfan said:

Any chance Pop is the PTBNL? 

 

Not sure, but I did see that Pop was optioned to AAA today.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

3 hours ago, lifelongbirdfan said:

Any chance Pop is the PTBNL? 

 

Hoping it is this guy https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/neideni01.shtml

[Sports Guy]

The Rays just traded Austin Meadows and the best piece they got was the Tigers comp B pick.

[Sports Guy]

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/miami-marlins-acquire-bullpen-tandem-cole-soler-and-tanner-scott-from-baltimore-orioles/

 

Interesting little tidbit on Guerrero in that article.

[Ruzious]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The Rays just traded Austin Meadows and the best piece they got was the Tigers comp B pick.

Meh, they also got a just turned 23 year old infielder who was a top 100 prospect before making it to Detroit.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

From Ben Clemens's 4/4 Fangraphs chat, seemingly in response to this move. Just seems weird to me that THIS is the move to elicit this reaction. Seems quite overwrought.

2:11	171: Being an Orioles fan really sucks right now.

2:11	Ben Clemens: It’s not great!

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’d like to tell you that the future is bright and that you should focus on that, and honestly, that’s true

2:12	Ben Clemens: The prospect crop is quite good

2:12	Ben Clemens: But the O’s have sucked for a LONG time, and they’re not going to be good this year, and they probably won’t be good next year

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’d find it very frustrating to root for them

2:13	Ben Clemens: Deciding not to try to win any major league games for six years or whatever is just gross

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

From Ben Clemens's 4/4 Fangraphs chat, seemingly in response to this move. Just seems weird to me that THIS is the move to elicit this reaction. Seems quite overwrought.

2:11	171: Being an Orioles fan really sucks right now.

2:11	Ben Clemens: It’s not great!

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’d like to tell you that the future is bright and that you should focus on that, and honestly, that’s true

2:12	Ben Clemens: The prospect crop is quite good

2:12	Ben Clemens: But the O’s have sucked for a LONG time, and they’re not going to be good this year, and they probably won’t be good next year

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’d find it very frustrating to root for them

2:13	Ben Clemens: Deciding not to try to win any major league games for six years or whatever is just gross

This idea that the O's/Elias just decided to NOT win games is profoundly stupid and childish and shows a deep misunderstanding of the actual situation facing the franchise.

I was going to post a Baseball Prospectus article outlining the O's upcoming season, but it was basically a whinefest about how it's "gross" they aren't "trying to win."  This was, of course, preceded by legitimate praise for bringing in Odor to "shore up" second base.

Shallow morons with no appreciation of the reality of the world parroting what they read other shallow morons tweet on twitter.

The modern American press, ladies and gentleman.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm not sure why you think it was specifically this move that elicited the response.

Could have been literally any other move Elias made since the season ended.