Colton Cowser 2022

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, sevastras said:

Jordan Lawlar is killing it at A ball. 

He WAS killing it. Lawlar went on the DL with a back injury - back injuries are usually tricky and can be longer-term.

[Just Regular]

Lawlar 7.17.2002 enjoying a .457 BABIP and 30% HR/FB rate in Visalia.   He has seen 641 pitches in 152 PA.

Cowser 3.20.2000 has a .384 BABIP and 9% HR/FB in Aberdeen.   He has seen 780 pitches in 176 PA.

P/PA of ~4.20 and ~4.45 closer than I was guessing before looking up.   We'll see how it goes as the Kjerstad-Martin bookend, and if one of Norby-Rhodes-Willems can play as loud as Mayo for the portfolio.

 

[Tony-OH]

While it's still early, it is safe to say that Cowser's start to his 2022 season has been a major disappointment.

I like to look how players are adjusting and while Aberdeen significantly favors pitchers, Cowser has struggled more than anyone would have thought since he was considered such an advanced hitter coming out of the draft.

As you know, the new minor league play one team for six days then get Monday off so let's look at his last three series (plus one game last night). Over this period he slashing .234/.402/.359/.762 with a 16 to 23 BB to K ratio. The previous three series he slashed  .240/.406/.380/.786 with a 13 to 19 BB to K ratio.

So basically it looks to me like he's kind of stagnated as a low power, low average guy who has drawn walks to provide value.

The other issue that stands out is he's really struggled against lefties this year slashing .154/.306/.180/.486 with 8 BB and 21 Ks in 49 PAs. 

Not a lot to get excited about so far this year and his selection along with the overslot money saved mainly going towards Creed Willems should have fans questioning the scouting and selections of the Elias regime. 

Even forgetting how well Jordan Lawler was doing before going on the IL with a back injury, OF Sam Frelik who was drafted 10 picks later and cost 900k less than Cowser is already in AA after slashing .291/.391/.456/.847 in A+ where Cowser is struggling. So even if you wanted to go underslot, it appears they picked the wrong underslot outfielder as of this moment in 2022.  

The Orioles really need to see Cowser pick it up.

[RZNJ]

 It's certainly fair to uestion the Cowser pick, but using that pick and Willems, who's barely started his career to put into question the overall draft record seems unfair.  They've actually had terrible luck on the injury front with Kjerstad, Trimble, Servideo, and Baumler.  Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, 1-2-3 in the first draft.  Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo in the 2nd draft.  Cowser is very disappointing and Trimble is hurt so early returns on the 2021 draft are poor, notwithstanding good starts by Rhodes and Tavera.

Also, two wrongs don't make a right. If Cowser was the wrong pick I don't think that makes Frelick the right one.  He's got 4th outfielder written all over him.  Less power than Cowser and despite being very fast not really a big threat on the bases.  

 

[RZNJ]

One thing I've pointed out before with Cowser this year is a very high ground ball rate to go along with his high strikeout rate.  Also, he saw about 3.8 pitches per AB last year as opposed to 4.4 this year.  The extra swing and miss probably factors into that higher number.

His ground ball rate was 1.41 last year. It's an unusually high 2.4 so far this year.

In conclusion, I don't have a conclusion.  Only more questions.  He actually didn't strike out last night. 2 walks and a double.  I keep hoping for signs of a turnaround. 

[Sports Guy]

When the purpose of your season is to lose games and the only advantage you get from losing is a high pick and a lot of draft pool money, you need to hit on those things.

It also gives another reason why the underslot game is so dumb to play.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When the purpose of your season is to lose games and the only advantage you get from losing is a high pick and a lot of draft pool money, you need to hit on those things.

It also gives another reason why the underslot game is so dumb to play.

Dumb to play if you actually believe your passing on a better player. That's where we disagree.  I don't think Elias is dumb and I do agree it's dumb to pass on a superior talent to get two lesser talents. 

It's possible they made an error in evaluating Cowser or an error in underestimating Jordan Lawlar but I don't believe they evaluated Lawlar as clearly better than Cowser and passed to do the underslot thing.  If they did then I agree that's dumb.  Time will tell on Cowser and Lawlar.  Consensus had Lawlar as more valuable but let's not forget consensus also had Cowser as one of the safest picks, high floor, sure to make contact and hit for average in the draft.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Dumb to play if you actually believe your passing on a better player. That's where we disagree.  I don't think Elias is dumb and I do agree it's dumb to pass on a superior talent to get two lesser talents. 

It's possible they made an error in evaluating Cowser or an error in underestimating Jordan Lawlar but I don't believe they evaluated Lawlar as clearly better than Cowser and passed to do the underslot thing.  If they did then I agree that's dumb.  Time will tell on Cowser and Lawlar.  Consensus had Lawlar as more valuable but let's not forget consensus also had Cowser as one of the safest picks, high floor, sure to make contact and hit for average in the draft.

Put it this way.  If you were offered to trade our first 8 picks for Lawlar, would you do it?  I know I would.

And btw, I believe there were some who were worried about Cowsers level of competition.

[OriolesMagic83]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Dumb to play if you actually believe your passing on a better player. That's where we disagree.  I don't think Elias is dumb and I do agree it's dumb to pass on a superior talent to get two lesser talents. 

It's possible they made an error in evaluating Cowser or an error in underestimating Jordan Lawlar but I don't believe they evaluated Lawlar as clearly better than Cowser and passed to do the underslot thing.  If they did then I agree that's dumb.  Time will tell on Cowser and Lawlar.  Consensus had Lawlar as more valuable but let's not forget consensus also had Cowser as one of the safest picks, high floor, sure to make contact and hit for average in the draft.

I just remember being p@#sed when I saw Cowser was the O's pick.  It made no sense to me to take a corner OF who was rated about the 15th best player.  Elite SS talent was available and a big area of need in the system.  I refuse to believe that anyone, including the O's thought Cowser was the BPA.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Dumb to play if you actually believe your passing on a better player. That's where we disagree.  I don't think Elias is dumb and I do agree it's dumb to pass on a superior talent to get two lesser talents. 

It's possible they made an error in evaluating Cowser or an error in underestimating Jordan Lawlar but I don't believe they evaluated Lawlar as clearly better than Cowser and passed to do the underslot thing.  If they did then I agree that's dumb.  Time will tell on Cowser and Lawlar.  Consensus had Lawlar as more valuable but let's not forget consensus also had Cowser as one of the safest picks, high floor, sure to make contact and hit for average in the draft.

Is that better?

Is it better to have a good process but faulty judgement or poor process?

I guess it's better to have the good process but I'd rather neither were true.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I just remember being p@#sed when I saw Cowser was the O's pick.  It made no sense to me to take a corner OF who was rated about the 15th best player.  Elite SS talent was available and a big area of need in the system.  I refuse to believe that anyone, including the O's thought Cowser was the BPA.

Have you asked Cowser's mother Anna?

[seak05]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

While it's still early, it is safe to say that Cowser's start to his 2022 season has been a major disappointment.

I like to look how players are adjusting and while Aberdeen significantly favors pitchers, Cowser has struggled more than anyone would have thought since he was considered such an advanced hitter coming out of the draft.

As you know, the new minor league play one team for six days then get Monday off so let's look at his last three series (plus one game last night). Over this period he slashing .234/.402/.359/.762 with a 16 to 23 BB to K ratio. The previous three series he slashed  .240/.406/.380/.786 with a 13 to 19 BB to K ratio.

So basically it looks to me like he's kind of stagnated as a low power, low average guy who has drawn walks to provide value.

The other issue that stands out is he's really struggled against lefties this year slashing .154/.306/.180/.486 with 8 BB and 21 Ks in 49 PAs. 

Not a lot to get excited about so far this year and his selection along with the overslot money saved mainly going towards Creed Willems should have fans questioning the scouting and selections of the Elias regime. 

Even forgetting how well Jordan Lawler was doing before going on the IL with a back injury, OF Sam Frelik who was drafted 10 picks later and cost 900k less than Cowser is already in AA after slashing .291/.391/.456/.847 in A+ where Cowser is struggling. So even if you wanted to go underslot, it appears they picked the wrong underslot outfielder as of this moment in 2022.  

The Orioles really need to see Cowser pick it up.

Sometimes scouting misses. In this case nearly all scouting reports I saw had Cowser as a better bat then Frelik, and the fact that he went 10 spots later seems to back that up. There were alos legitimate questions about Lawlar's hit tool, which is part of why he didn't go 1, 2, 3, or 4. You can only make a decision on best available evidence at the time (aka hindsight is 20/20), and I don't think the gap between Cowser and the other two looked as large then as it's currently looking. 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Put it this way.  If you were offered to trade our first 8 picks for Lawlar, would you do it?  I know I would.

And btw, I believe there were some who were worried about Cowsers level of competition.

Probably yes, on that trade but you could also look stupid two years from now.  Agreed there were concerns about Cowser's level of competition but those were alleviated for most based on his performance with the College U.S.A. team.  I'd be happy to paste the pre draft writeup in BA on Cowser.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is that better?

Is it better to have a good process but faulty judgement or poor process?

I guess it's better to have the good process but I'd rather neither were true.

Well, although early returns suggest they made a mistake by not taking Lawlar would you agree it's still a bit early to say they messed it up?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, although early returns suggest they made a mistake by not taking Lawlar would you agree it's still a bit early to say they messed it up?

Yes.

I agree 100%.