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Gunnar Henderson 2022

Just Regular

By Just Regular
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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Witt a little stronger with the power numbers, Henderson a bit better with the BA and putting up an otherworldly OBP this year.   Obviously, very SSS at AAA for Gunnar at this point.   

Yeah, I'll take the OBP gap hands down.  Looks like a #2 hitter if he can continue the .100+ OBP gap.

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emmett16
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I got a chance to see Henderson play in person for the first time today.  I’ve watched dozens of his games on TV but hadn’t had a chance to see him play live.   My observations are the following:

OsFanSinceThe80s
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Frobby
Frobby

I learned a ton watching him today.  The kid is fearless and carries himself like a big leaguer.   You can see all the tools are there.   Honestly, I was even impressed by him spoiling an 0-2 pitch an

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The OBP he’s been putting up this year is just absurd.  

True, but maintaining a .100+ OBP gap above AVG is a reasonable hope.  Yes, it's otherworldly in 2022.  And I'm not expecting he maintain a gap of .140-.180.  His 2021 AVG/OBP gap was .090+.  Witt's gap about .060 across all levels.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

True, but maintaining a .100+ OBP gap above AVG is a reasonable hope.  Yes, it's otherworldly in 2022.  And I'm not expecting he maintain a gap of .140-.180.  His 2021 AVG/OBP gap was .090+.  Witt's gap about .060 across all levels.

Oh, I agree.   I was just expressing my astonishment at the OBP he’s been putting up this year.   And he’s been real consistent with it.  Obviously nobody’s expecting a .450+ OBP or an 18% BB rate in the majors, but the signs certainly are encouraging that he’ll be a plus OBP guy at the major league level, with good pop as well.   I feel like both his ceiling and his floor have been raised tremendously this year.  

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Mooreisbetter27 Hangout Grand Counsel

Mooreisbetter27

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I agree.   I was just expressing my astonishment at the OBP he’s been putting up this year.   And he’s been real consistent with it.  Obviously nobody’s expecting a .450+ OBP or an 18% BB rate in the majors, but the signs certainly are encouraging that he’ll be a plus OBP guy at the major league level, with good pop as well.   I feel like both his ceiling and his floor have been raised tremendously this year.  

Maybe because I'm an Oriole fan, I'm jaded.  But his improvement has been insane and I keep expecting the other shoe to drop.  From the end of last year until this year, it's like he's a different player.  If this is the player he is, he is a legitimate superstar and I'd venture to say he's our #1 prospect even if Adley had prospect status. 

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

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20 hours ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Maybe because I'm an Oriole fan, I'm jaded.  But his improvement has been insane and I keep expecting the other shoe to drop.  From the end of last year until this year, it's like he's a different player.  If this is the player he is, he is a legitimate superstar and I'd venture to say he's our #1 prospect even if Adley had prospect status. 

What I didn't know until yesterday is the positional adjustment for catchers. It's very hard to be more "valuable" than a blue chip catcher prospect, even if you think you're watching a better player at another position.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

What I didn't know until yesterday is the positional adjustment for catchers. It's very hard to be more "valuable" than a blue chip catcher prospect, even if you think you're watching a better player at another position.

I wouldn’t say that.   Catchers get a positional adjustment because they tend to not hit as well as players at other position.  So if a player at another position is a better hitter than the catcher, and/or is more outstanding defensively at his position than the catching prospect is compared to other catchers, he can make up for the positional adjustment rather easily.   That’s why you don’t see catchers leading the league in WAR on a regular basis.   

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seak05 All-Star

seak05

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10 hours ago, LookinUp said:

What I didn't know until yesterday is the positional adjustment for catchers. It's very hard to be more "valuable" than a blue chip catcher prospect, even if you think you're watching a better player at another position.

It's more about positional scarcity. There are very very few major league catchers who are both good offensively and defensively, so if you have a chance to get one, you grab it. There are comparatively more shortstops who can do both, but it's still fairly rare, and on down the spectrum. It's one reason though you take an Adley over a Witt Jr. 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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One BP analyst asked recently by a fantasy editor for the game's best prospect gave Henderson as the answer, and made an article of it.    The article says feedback from industry sources agrees it is appropriate he is in midseason Tier1 conversation, but otherwise doesn't say anything about him we don't already know here.   I did find this rundown of present rivals helpful, at least for the mix before 2022 draftees splash the pool.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/75481/is-gunnar-henderson-the-best-prospect-left/

What about the other tip-top prospects? Francisco Álvarez smokes the ball when he makes contact, but expands more often than you’d like. Corbin Carroll has had phenomenal production at Double-A (.323/.438/.659) despite limited pro reps between injuries and the pandemic, but he’s got some surprising in-zone contact issues that could drag down his hit tool in the future. Jordan Walker has just as much power potential as Álvarez, and has a surprisingly well-rounded offensive game on the whole, but his fielding percentage currently starts with an 8, so he might be a first baseman sooner rather than later. Anthony Volpe had a rough adjustment period to Double-A pitching and hasn’t fully emerged on the other side yet. Marco Luciano is only a couple months younger than Henderson and still working out the contact kinks two levels down. Grayson Rodriguez and Daniel Espino… well, they aren’t hitters, and they’re hurt anyway.

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Absltgreek Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

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From the BA Hot Sheet Chat:

 

  • Meads or Gunnar if you had to pick one?


Josh Norris: Gunnar. Scouts absolutely loooooove Gunnar Henderson for a combination of skills and polish that could make him truly elite. Depending on who graduates this year, he has a shot to be the No. 1 overall prospect in the game entering 2023.

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