Gunnar Henderson 2022

[LookinUp]

Henderson (3b), Westburg (2b) and Stowers (of/dh) should be promoted. My guess is it’ll happen with ~ 44 days left in the season.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Henderson (3b), Westburg (2b) and Stowers (of/dh) should be promoted. My guess is it’ll happen with ~ 44 days left in the season.

I think I was the first one to raise the 44 day issue, a few weeks back.  Getting a little experience this year without losing rookie eligibility would seem to enhance a player’s chances of finishing in the top 3 of ROY voting next year, as well as helping the team next year.  

It should be noted, however, that a player with under 45 days of service will still lose rookie eligibility if he accumulates more than 130 at bats this year.   So you couldn’t bring up a player with 44 days to go and stick them in the lineup every day.  They’d probably need to sit out 10 games or so the rest of the way to stay under 130 at bats. (Note: it’s at bats, not plate appearances, so a choosy guy like Henderson probably wouldn’t need to sit as often as a more free-swinging player.)
 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think I was the first one to raise the 44 day issue, a few weeks back.  Getting a little experience this year without losing rookie eligibility would seem to enhance a player’s chances of finishing in the top 3 of ROY voting next year, as well as helping the team next year.  

It should be noted, however, that a player with under 45 days of service will still lose rookie eligibility if he accumulates more than 130 at bats this year.   So you couldn’t bring up a player with 44 days to go and stick them in the lineup every day.  They’d probably need to sit out 10 games or so the rest of the way to stay under 130 at bats. (Note: it’s at bats, not plate appearances, so a choosy guy like Henderson probably wouldn’t need to sit as often as a more free-swinging player.)
 

I could definitely see the Orioles bringing him up for a cup of coffee to maintain ROY eligibility and then have him start with the club next year hoping he finishes high enough for the comp pick.   Seems like a good strategy.  

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I’d say there’s a small chance Henderson breaks camp with the team next year. Bigger chance Elias holds him down until he gains an extra year of service time. No chance he comes up this year despite what many of you are hoping for. 

That would fit his normal M.O. The question is, does he adjust with the Orioles in contention for a Wild Card this year. There is no way anyone could think having Odor in the everyday lineup over Henderson makes this team better.

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That would fit his normal M.O. The question is, does he adjust with the Orioles in contention for a Wild Card this year. There is no way anyone could think having Odor in the everyday lineup over Henderson makes this team better.

Agreed.  I do think the new rules and the competitive nature of the team could change the math enough to #startthestuds!  

[seak05]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That would fit his normal M.O. The question is, does he adjust with the Orioles in contention for a Wild Card this year. There is no way anyone could think having Odor in the everyday lineup over Henderson makes this team better.

I don’t think we really know his normal MO to be honest. I think he clearly believes that players should succeed at every level, so Grayson wasn’t going to be on the OD roster. But if we take him at his word (so who knows) the plan seems to have been for Adley to be on the OD roster pre-injury. 
 

Gunnar will be an interesting test case, as he will also have already succeeded at triple A when spring training comes around.

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That would fit his normal M.O. The question is, does he adjust with the Orioles in contention for a Wild Card this year. There is no way anyone could think having Odor in the everyday lineup over Henderson makes this team better.

True, but the guys on the team love Odor. Now I know that doesn’t matter to anyone here (including me, this isn’t a defense of keeping him on the team even though he’s become a favorite “bad Oriole” of mine). 
 

I said this the other day in a different thread but I think it bears repeating here. I don’t think Elias went down to Texas to meet with everyone after the Mancini and Lopez trades with the idea that he would end up cutting guys on the current roster. 
 

I’m happy he went, it shows that he’s a good leader and a good communicator. And it shows that he wants to have a good relationship with his players. I doubt that Odor has come this far, survives the trade deadline only for Elias to cut him in August or September.  
 

That’s too bad for Gunnar as he would make this team better but we know who Elias is and, to your point, what his M.O. is. Vavra is a good prospect but I don’t think Elias views him as a core piece, hence the late summer call-up. Can’t say the same for Gunnar. 

[Flash- bd]

30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True, but the guys on the team love Odor. Now I know that doesn’t matter to anyone here (including me, this isn’t a defense of keeping him on the team even though he’s become a favorite “bad Oriole” of mine). 
 

I said this the other day in a different thread but I think it bears repeating here. I don’t think Elias went down to Texas to meet with everyone after the Mancini and Lopez trades with the idea that he would end up cutting guys on the current roster. 
 

I’m happy he went, it shows that he’s a good leader and a good communicator. And it shows that he wants to have a good relationship with his players. I doubt that Odor has come this far, survives the trade deadline only for Elias to cut him in August or September.  
 

That’s too bad for Gunnar as he would make this team better but we know who Elias is and, to your point, what his M.O. is. Vavra is a good prospect but I don’t think Elias views him as a core piece, hence the late summer call-up. Can’t say the same for Gunnar. 

Vavra will change his mind though. He's the best thing since sliced bread, the _____ (no idea what type of name Vavra is, or Terrin for that matter) God of Walks. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Flash- bd said:

Vavra will change his mind though. He's the best thing since sliced bread, the _____ (no idea what type of name Vavra is, or Terrin for that matter) God of Walks. 

That's OK, Youkilis wasn't Greek.

[Just Regular]

A lot of what the Gunnar v. Odor (or Urias?) choice in 2022 is to me is October competitiveness.

It is somewhat likely Gunnar Month1 will be a worse performer than midseason form Odor, never mind the clubhouse alchemy.

Other way around, I do believe Month2 or Month3 Gunnar could help the Orioles keep up with the Twins-Astros-Yankees in a way I don't believe Odor on his best day could.

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Vavra will change his mind though. He's the best thing since sliced bread, the _____ (no idea what type of name Vavra is, or Terrin for that matter) God of Walks. 

I think its Swedish.

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I don’t think we really know his normal MO to be honest. I think he clearly believes that players should succeed at every level, so Grayson wasn’t going to be on the OD roster. But if we take him at his word (so who knows) the plan seems to have been for Adley to be on the OD roster pre-injury. 
 

Gunnar will be an interesting test case, as he will also have already succeeded at triple A when spring training comes around.

Well we do know how he's operated so far, but that was while the team was not competitive. Will he bring up players before it's most advantageous to their controllability if he thinks they give his major league team the most chance to win? So far the answer to that is no, at least not this year.

Gunnar, GRod, Stowers, Westburg and Hall should all be watched closely to see how he handles promotions to the major leagues.

 

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Vavra will change his mind though. He's the best thing since sliced bread, the _____ (no idea what type of name Vavra is, or Terrin for that matter) God of Walks. 

He's been great, but let's see how he settles in.  I don't think the plate discipline will change, so that's one good thing he's got going for him.  

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True, but the guys on the team love Odor. Now I know that doesn’t matter to anyone here (including me, this isn’t a defense of keeping him on the team even though he’s become a favorite “bad Oriole” of mine). 

They loved Mancini and how have they played since his departure?

I don't discount clubhouse leaders or chemistry, but winning and doing well is the best way to build that chemistry. 

The team is 43-49 when Odor plays and 11-2 when he doesn't. 

No one can convince me that he makes the team better with his veteranosity. Some fans thought Mancini was the "heart and soul" of the clubhouse, but they are 3-0 without him. 

Talent is what matters most, not Veteranosity. Odor has been worth -0.3 rWAR and and his xWOBA is in the bottom 3% of the league among qualifiers and despite the folks that talk about his defense his -6 OAA is second worse in baseball only ahead of Kolten Wong.

The only thing that is keeping Henderson off this roster is either his controllability long term and keeping his rookie status for next year so he can gain them an extra draft pick. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They loved Mancini and how have they played since his departure?

I don't discount clubhouse leaders or chemistry, but winning and doing well is the best way to build that chemistry. 

The team is 43-49 when Odor plays and 11-2 when he doesn't. 

No one can convince me that he makes the team better with his veteranosity. Some fans thought Mancini was the "heart and soul" of the clubhouse, but they are 3-0 without him. 

Talent is what matters most, not Veteranosity. Odor has been worth -0.3 rWAR and and his xWOBA is in the bottom 3% of the league among qualifiers and despite the folks that talk about his defense his -6 OAA is second worse in baseball only ahead of Kolten Wong.

The only thing that is keeping Henderson off this roster is either his controllability long term and keeping his rookie status for next year so he can gain them an extra draft pick. 

Agreed on all points.  And I think the last paragraph is what matters most.