Gunnar Henderson 2022

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Go back and reread my statement and tell me where I'm wrong. 

I didn't say you were wrong.  I said that it was a little unfair to have expected them to produce an impact ML all-star that they didn't inherit from the previous regime with only 3 drafts and one year when there were no minor league games.  This is what I was commenting on.

the ultra modern computer integrated Elias regime gave away Yaz and has yet to produce an impact all-star player that was not in the system at the time they arrived.

[Tony-OH]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I didn't say you were wrong.  I said that it was a little unfair to have expected them to produce an impact ML all-star that they didn't inherit from the previous regime with only 3 drafts and one year when there were no minor league games.  This is what I was commenting on.

the ultra modern computer integrated Elias regime gave away Yaz and has yet to produce an impact all-star player that was not in the system at the time they arrived.

You can make any assessment on the fairness of what I said, but you've yet been able to tell me where I'm wrong.

See there are feelings and facts when it comes to statements. You feel I'm being unfair when I made a factual statement. I didn't include any feelings or opinions when I wrote this, just plain facts. 

It's certainly up to you to allow your fandom to drive your feelings on this statement, but what can not be argued is that this statement is 100% factual and not filled with opinion or feelings of any kind.

I don't understand how saying a factual statement is unfair to anyone. 

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I dunno...if I turn the tint up to the orangest I might argue Gunnar's relationship with Orioles Player Development these 36 months has been fundamental to bringing him where he is today, and more than the SEC could ever have done.

At least if I'm Elias I'm singing that song to Druw, Termarr, Holliday, Collier, etc.

I agree. So far it appears the Elias regimes best pick and development story has come from drafting a high school player vs trying to use computer systems to determine what college stats translate to. 

I'm not saying that's all they use of course, but just that the college players have been less than spectacular this year especially once they've reached the upper minors, and in Cowser's case, High-A ball.

I haven't drawn any conclusions on Elias' draft strategy and selections so far, but I can't say I'm elated after this season with a lot of top picks not performing very well. Westburg's hit streak in AAA has definitely brightened his star a bit though I want to see it over a longer haul, especially after 339 mediocre AA PAs.

Cowser, Haskin, Watson have all underperformed expectations so far. 

While Mayo's year has not been stellar, he still has some good upside and is young for his league. I'm ok with guys taking a little extra time at a level when they're young, but not when they are million+ bonus babies out of college who are age appropriate or a little old for their leagues.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree. So far it appears the Elias regimes best pick and development story has come from drafting a high school player vs trying to use computer systems to determine what college stats translate to. 

I'm not saying that's all they use of course, but just that the college players have been less than spectacular this year especially once they've reached the upper minors, and in Cowser's case, High-A ball.

I haven't drawn any conclusions on Elias' draft strategy and selections so far, but I can't say I'm elated after this season with a lot of top picks not performing very well. Westburg's hit streak in AAA has definitely brightened his star a bit though I want to see it over a longer haul, especially after 339 mediocre AA PAs.

Cowser, Haskin, Watson have all underperformed expectations so far. 

While Mayo's year has not been stellar, he still has some good upside and is young for his league. I'm ok with guys taking a little extra time at a level when they're young, but not when they are million+ bonus babies out of college who are age appropriate or a little old for their leagues.

I don’t agree with this take.  The same system that said take Cowser at 1:5 said take Henderson at 2:1 and Westburg at 1:30.    They’ve done well with their HS selections and pretty well with their college selections too so far as I’m concerned.   

If the Henderson case shows anything, it’s that development is a process and not everybody develops at a steady rate.  There are fits and starts and stats fluctuate too.  People were wringing their hands about Westburg into early May, and now he’s been promoted and destroying AAA for the time being.  Same player, same development system.   I’m certainly not going to judge the Cowser pick on where he is this nanosecond.   I’m pretty happy with Elias’ success rate.  
 

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t agree with this take.  The same system that said take Cowser at 1:5 said take Henderson at 2:1 and Westburg at 1:30.    They’ve done well with their HS selections and pretty well with their college selections too so far as I’m concerned.   

If the Henderson case shows anything, it’s that development is a process and not everybody develops at a steady rate.  There are fits and starts and stats fluctuate too.  People were wringing their hands about Westburg into early May, and now he’s been promoted and destroying AAA for the time being.  Same player, same development system.   I’m certainly not going to judge the Cowser pick on where he is this nanosecond.   I’m pretty happy with Elias’ success rate.  
 

Certainly your right to be be happy where we are, but I'm not judging it just on Cowser's poor season so far.

I typically like college hitters as high picks, and I think there is promise in guys like Stowers and Westburg and maybe even Cowser if his recent hot streak is an indication of him going back to what made him successful. 

But Henderson has a chance to be an impact guy and Mayo still has a chance to be an impact guy. I don't want to see Elias taking the safe route on this year's 1:1. He needs to go upside even if it carries more risk. 

 

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Certainly your right to be be happy where we are, but I'm not judging it just on Cowser's poor season so far.

I typically like college hitters as high picks, and I think there is promise in guys like Stowers and Westburg and maybe even Cowser if his recent hot streak is an indication of him going back to what made him successful. 

But Henderson has a chance to be an impact guy and Mayo still has a chance to be an impact guy. I don't want to see Elias taking the safe route on this year's 1:1. He needs to go upside even if it carries more risk. 

For me, it depends on how much more upside he thinks is there and how much more risk.   But I don’t disagree in principle.   Seems like there’s several high upside guys there who also have a pretty decent floor.  

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Westburg's hit streak in AAA has definitely brightened his star a bit though I want to see it over a longer haul, especially after 339 mediocre AA PAs.

If he was a 25 year-old first baseman it might be fair to call his AA offensive output mediocre, but for a 22/23 year old shortstop, his AA numbers were solid.

A .242/.336/.456 (.792) slash line in a league with an average slash line of .235/.323/.395 (.718) and a 40/89 BB/K over 339 PAs is solid for his age, given that he plays a premium defensive position.

The average is obviously lower than you would like, especially last year, but the .282 BABIP last year feels like slightly bad luck, given his ISO numbers and his 20+ percent line drive percentage.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You can make any assessment on the fairness of what I said, but you've yet been able to tell me where I'm wrong.

See there are feelings and facts when it comes to statements. You feel I'm being unfair when I made a factual statement. I didn't include any feelings or opinions when I wrote this, just plain facts. 

It's certainly up to you to allow your fandom to drive your feelings on this statement, but what can not be argued is that this statement is 100% factual and not filled with opinion or feelings of any kind.

I don't understand how saying a factual statement is unfair to anyone. 

Ha.  It's a factual statement to say no one drafted by Elias since 2019 has been named to an American League All-star team.  We agree on the facts.   Now tell me where I said you were wrong.   I never disputed the facts of what you said.

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

If he was a 25 year-old first baseman it might be fair to call his AA offensive output mediocre, but for a 22/23 year old shortstop, his AA numbers were solid.

A .242/.336/.456 (.792) slash line in a league with an average slash line of .235/.323/.395 (.718) and a 40/89 BB/K over 339 PAs is solid for his age, given that he plays a premium defensive position.

The average is obviously lower than you would like, especially last year, but the .282 BABIP last year feels like slightly bad luck, given his ISO numbers and his 20+ percent line drive percentage.

League averish production is not what you want from your true prospects. As I was always told, future big leaguers should be the best players on the field. they should be much better than their counterparts because the vast majority of them are not big leaguers. 

I'm not down on Westburg in that I don't think he can't still be a big leaguer, I just have tempered my expectations of him a bit after his mediocre AA stint. Now, could he turn it around and keep this AAA production and wipe that stain off, sure, he could. The good news with Westburg is that he brings defensive value as a an infielder. 

So if he ends up an averish major league hitter and has defensive value, he's valuable. Do I think he'd hit better than Mateo right now, I certainly do but that more because Mateo has become a liability at the plate and in the lineup.

Let's hope Westburg can show that his hot streak of late is him making an adjustment to professional pitching and not just a hot streak against sub par pitching found in the minors. 

I like Westburg overall and I do think he can be an everyday big leaguer. His stick will determine his upside though.

[Tony-OH]

Look, I get it, I'm taking a very unpopular position right now because everyone's fan bone is kicking in with the Orioles not sucking awfully by this time of the year. 

The Orioles organization destroyed whatever fan bone I had left and while I do still want them to win, I've decided I'm just going to be a realist when it comes the organization. I have no love or hate for anyone in the organization and will cover them in a fair way. If you want fanboy analysis, you may want to go to other places that will surely tell you every guy in the minors will become superstars.

I'll call things as I see them and you can choose to poo-poo them all you want because that's your right.

Back into Henderson, he's a great story for the organization and it's fans because he's a true breakout minor league player that the organization hasn't had since Trey Mancini broke out in Frederick all those years back. 

He legitimately looks like an impact player.

[NCRaven]

If Duquette had been scouting the stat line, Manny would never have been promoted when he was.  I went to a Baysox game to see Manny and Schoop.  Neither had a particularly good game.  Their stats for the season weren't all that.  But if you watched the game, they were men playing against boys.  I can see some of that in Westburg.  Even when the numbers were only slightly better than average, he was better than the other players on the field - except for Henderson.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

League averish production is not what you want from your true prospects. As I was always told, future big leaguers should be the best players on the field. they should be much better than their counterparts because the vast majority of them are not big leaguers. 

I'm not down on Westburg in that I don't think he can't still be a big leaguer, I just have tempered my expectations of him a bit after his mediocre AA stint. Now, could he turn it around and keep this AAA production and wipe that stain off, sure, he could. The good news with Westburg is that he brings defensive value as a an infielder. 

So if he ends up an averish major league hitter and has defensive value, he's valuable. Do I think he'd hit better than Mateo right now, I certainly do but that more because Mateo has become a liability at the plate and in the lineup.

Let's hope Westburg can show that his hot streak of late is him making an adjustment to professional pitching and not just a hot streak against sub par pitching found in the minors. 

I like Westburg overall and I do think he can be an everyday big leaguer. His stick will determine his upside though.

AA?  AAA?   His overall OPS is .905 this year.  Why are we knocking him for mediocre AA numbers spread over two years when his OPS THIS year is .905?

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

AA?  AAA?   His overall OPS is .905 this year.  Why are we knocking him for mediocre AA numbers spread over two years when his OPS THIS year is .905?

Deap breath. In then out, then in, then out! 

There. Feel better. Try not to read my posts if they make your blood pressure go up. It's more fun in your fan bubble, trust me. 

[Vandy]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You can make any assessment on the fairness of what I said, but you've yet been able to tell me where I'm wrong.

See there are feelings and facts when it comes to statements. You feel I'm being unfair when I made a factual statement. I didn't include any feelings or opinions when I wrote this, just plain facts. 

It's certainly up to you to allow your fandom to drive your feelings on this statement, but what can not be argued is that this statement is 100% factual and not filled with opinion or feelings of any kind.

I don't understand how saying a factual statement is unfair to anyone. 

Something can be factual but also not hold a ton of water as a valid criticism. Since Elias arrived, no drafted player has made an all star team for any organization and only one international signing has earned that distinction (Yusei Kikuchi at 30 years old from the NPB). I guess someone could argue that he failed to trade mediocre assets on the roster for an all star caliber player since he took over, but I'm not going to fault him for failing to turn water into wine. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Deap breath. In then out, then in, then out! 

There. Feel better. Try not to read my posts if they make your blood pressure go up. It's more fun in your fan bubble, trust me. 

Thanks for the condescending tone, Tony.    My blood pressure is fine.   You are the one who keeps asking me to prove you are wrong when I never accused you of being wrong.