The Teixeira Watch: Part V - AM says the O's "have flexibility" on Tex

[zff4]

That means the Yankees are about to jump into the bidding! :eektf:

Not necessarily, it also means we might be bidding against ourselves.

[geschinger]

Bingo. No Tex = forget about competing for the next 4-5 years at least, especially if the Sux get him.

Not remotely true.

Tex = winning.

Far, far, far, far, far from a sure thing... It will take a lot of good decision making with no margin for error to maybe win w/Teix.

[Lester Freamon]

Back to Baseball........Tex signing with us is huge now as well as the future. If he doesn't sign I think BRob will be traded as well as Nick. Not saying Nick goes this year by any means but I'm not sure we could view him as a long term Oriole. Everyone is paying attention to what happens with Tex. We really need to make a statement to our fans,players, as well as the rest of the baseball world.

Again, WITH ALL DUE RESPECT (I don't want you to think that I am confusing you with your source and the information he/she provides you). However, when you say this, the way it sounds to me is that we should disregard what your source has been telling you prior to this, as well as the super optimistic feeling you have. To me it reads that the negotiations have been reset. That the "wow" offer may not have actually been made - although hopefully it means it will still be deployed - and that the ball is back in the O's court as to whether or not they want to make that offer.

That's the way I read it, anyway.

[Belkast]

Again, WITH ALL DUE RESPECT (I don't want you to think that I am confusing you with your source and the information he/she provides you). However, when you say this, the way it sounds to me is that we should disregard what your source has been telling you prior to this, as well as the super optimistic feeling you have. To me it reads that the negotiations have been reset. That the "wow" offer may not have actually been made - although hopefully it means it will still be deployed - and that the ball is back in the O's court as to whether or not they want to make that offer.

That's the way I read it, anyway.

Read it again!

[JTrea81]

Not remotely true.

Explain to me how we beat the Red Sox if they had Mark Teixeira? And that's if we get past the Rays and Yankees.

Nick will bolt in 2011 and Roberts will be traded for suspects IMO because he's only got 1 year left on his deal.

[alskor]

Bingo. No Tex = forget about competing for the next 4-5 years at least, especially if the Sux get him.

Tex = winning.

Or one could say the reverse, and hope that the Sox and Yanks get loaded down with big contracts and older players(like the type that just killed than Yanks) and that the Orioles young core (Matusz-Tillman-Arrieta-Wieters-Jones-Markakis) helps them rise to near the top, and then when the next Mark Teixeira is available in 2011 (when the O's are actually good and not coming off 11 losing seasons in a row) the O's will have the flexibility and opportunity to go after him harder than the Sox and Yanks. Also, since Baltimore wont suck then he might very well not have to be convinced to come here with an offer of 200 mill.

[MarkF]

I apologize is this has been posted - I haven't read each of the three million posts on this subject...

but it really bothers me that reporters, especially the national reporters, keep referring to the Orioles offer as clearly the smallest of the four. That is a very misleading and likely inaccurate statement.

First, all agents and teams value their contracts in terms of present value. This means that they discount future payments by an assumed rate of return. So, a $10M payment made eight years from now might have a present value of $6-7M. If two teams have offered the same years and money, perhaps 8/160, that does NOT tell you that the deals are equavalent. There could be a very large difference in the value of these two offers. The reporters don't ever say that and apparently don't understand that.

Second, even if you ignore the above argument, reporters seem to be saying that the Orioles' supposed offer of 7/140-150 is necessarily a lot smaller than a competing offer of 8/160. That is not true. Assuming that timing of the payments is equivalent, an offer of 8/140 is a lot smaller than 8/160. An offer of 7/140 is clearly worth a lot more than 8/140.

And suppose the Orioles' offer if closer to 7/150. Doesn't that look BETTER than 8/160? Tex is pretty likely the be able to play in 2016, the eighth year. And won't he likely earn more than $10M? IMO he will earn $30M.

So, that's my rant. The devil, as they say, is in the details, of which we and these judgemental reporters know nothing. The Orioles have nothing to be ashamed of in their seven year offer. Neither Boras nor Tex seems to have been insulted. Let's see how it plays out.

[SilentJames]

Read it again!

Belky Belky

Got to love your posts man, I know you are very optimistic, but let me ask you this.

Say we offer a big, solid deal for Tex, but he goes somewhere else for simply insane crazy money the type of money that, if it were a weapon, you could commit a war crime with.

Do you think Nick and Brian would look at that as us doing our best but just getting overwhelmed this one time by superior weaponry, or do you really believe that Tex is the lynch-pin of this org for the next 3-6 years?

[Going Underground]

Until Tex signs who knows who is still in the hunt. The Angels could be still in the hunt and also throwing out disinformation. When he signs it will be all over and we wil lsee who was right and who was wrong.

[JTrea81]

Or one could say the reverse, and hope that the Sox and Yanks get loaded down with big contracts and older players(like the type that just killed than Yanks) and that the Orioles young core (Matusz-Tillman-Arrieta-Wieters-Jones-Markakis) helps them rise to near the top, and then when the next Mark Teixeira is available in 2011 (when the O's are actually good and not coming off 11 losing seasons in a row) the O's will have the flexibility and opportunity to go after him harder than the Sox and Yanks. Also, since Baltimore wont suck then he might very well not have to be convinced to come here with an offer of 200 mill.

The Orioles will not sign another major FA unless they make the playoffs IMO or overpay a ton.

The only reason Tex is considering Baltimore is that he's from the area. If he had no ties to Baltimore, we wouldn't be in the race at all.

Contracts will not hurt the Yankees or Sux at all, talent will.

[Lester Freamon]

Read it again!

Okay, I will. Thank you very much!

[Osfan13]

I don't see Markakis liking that one bit because it would hurt his #'s and lower his value in FA.

As a #3 hitter and corner OFer he's looking at 15-18 million a season. As a leadoff hitter that # goes down IMO...

I don't see him as a three hitter on this team either way though. He struggled in that role early in the season, and he really (I felt) hit his stride in the #2 hole.

We'll see how the season next year unfolds, and there is another outfielder that is going to impact what we do with Nick (Jones), but I can't see him hitting anywhere else.

The wanting to hit in the 3 hole for more money reminds me (for some reason) of Robinson Cano saying that he didn't want to move to 3B to the press when A-Rod opted out.

[jcroemer]

I apologize is this has been posted - I haven't read each of the three million posts on this subject...

but it really bothers me that reporters, especially the national reporters, keep referring to the Orioles offer as clearly the smallest of the four. That is a very misleading and likely inaccurate statement.

First, all agents and teams value their contracts in terms of present value. This means that they discount future payments by an assumed rate of return. So, a $10M payment made eight years from now might have a present value of $6-7M. If two teams have offered the same years and money, perhaps 8/160, that does NOT tell you that the deals are equavalent. There could be a very large difference in the value of these two offers. The reporters don't ever say that and apparently don't understand that.

Second, even if you ignore the above argument, reporters seem to be saying that the Orioles' supposed offer of 7/140-150 is necessarily a lot smaller than a competing offer of 8/160. That is not true. Assuming that timing of the payments is equivalent, an offer of 8/140 is a lot smaller than 8/160. An offer of 7/140 is clearly worth a lot more than 8/140.

And suppose the Orioles' offer if closer to 7/150. Doesn't that look BETTER than 8/160? Tex is pretty likely the be able to play in 2016, the eighth year. And won't he likely earn more than $10M? IMO he will earn $30M.

So, that's my rant. The devil, as they say, is in the details, of which we and these judgemental reporters know nothing. The Orioles have nothing to be ashamed of in their seven year offer. Neither Boras nor Tex seems to have been insulted. Let's see how it plays out.

You are absolutely right. They think like economists - after all they are managing a billion-dollar-per-year (probably much more) business. We have no idea if the contract is back-loaded or front-loaded, whatever. The O's are very much in this.

Consider the externalities - there are more endorsement dollars for Tex in Baltimore than in Boston where he would compete with his own teammates for those endorsement dollars.

[geschinger]

Explain to me how we beat the Red Sox if they had Mark Teixeira? And that's if we get past the Rays and Yankees.

Nick will bolt in 2011 and Roberts will be traded for suspects IMO because he's only got 1 year left on his deal.

Ortiz is getting old, they lost Manny. If we took some of those payroll dollars saved from not signing Teix and put it into International signings and the draft we will get significantly more bang for our buck. We aren't going to beat the Red Sox by outspending them for particular players... The only way we will be able to consistently contend is to out do them in player development.

[Redsoxfaninnh]

To go a step further...If the O's sign Tex it will make a the rest of the FA market do a series of panic moves...

Signing Tex would be huge for the O's for the reasons so well articulated by Belkast. I think, however, you grossly overstate the effect it will have on the rest of the teams...with the possible exception of the Angels. Let's take em one by one:

The Tex deal hurts LAA in 2 ways. No Tex at 1st and no Lowell avaialbe to play 3rd with no Tex in Boston.

This is accurate although I don't think LAA was a likely landing place for Lowell. Cleveland and Philadelphia make more sense IMO. I think losing Teixeira from their lineup does put them in a serious situation and they have to find a way to replace him.

The Tex deal hurts Bos by forcing them to concede to Texas for Bucholz for Teagarden or Salty to make the splash Tex was supposed to.

Not getting Teixeira would hurt the Sox more long term than short term. I believe they want Teixeira because he is a (relatively) young power hitter, something there seems to be a shortage of in their system. That said, Lars Anderson looks to be a year away and projects as a top level power hitter.

I completely disagree that this would force the Sox to trade Buchholz for Salty or Teagarden. Whether they sign Tex or not, they have a huge hole at catcher that needs to be addressed. Neither of Texas' young catchers projects to be the type of impact hitter that Tex is. If they feel either of them is worth Buchholz, they will make that deal...no matter what happens with Teixeira.

The Tex deal hurts the Yankee's by driving Manny's price through the roof by making the Angels along with NYY and LAD valid destinations with a legitimate need.

Neither the Dodgers nor Yankees have seriously pursued Teixeira and knew he would be signed before Manny. Who he signs with is of no consequence when it comes to what either team will be willing to offer Manny.

The Tex to the O's deal may in the long run help Boras the most by upping Manny's market all the while forcing Boston to resign Tek.

Oriole fans should hope that the Sox don't feel forced into re-signing Varitek because there has been a rumor swirling for sometime now that Boras was going to seek a package deal; Varitek and Teixeira. This would drive Tek's value up by using Tex as leverage.

I'm not saying I believe this will happen BUT if it does, which team do you suppose would be most likely to agree to such a package deal? Hmmmm?