Olney on trade deadline

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Its not three games.  Its three games and something reassembling a MLB infield.  Means, they should stop yanking our chains as fans and selling some 6 year rebuilding process.  Look at the result this year.  Look at threads with some level of hope for a turnaround. 

I said it would a different article because this should have been the year they actually started developing a winning product.  That article, in so many words, says the Orioles don't have a single current major leaguer that will be on a contending team (maybe moutcastle).  You think if thats the case, if the Orioles trade Mullins, Mancini and Hays, that the Orioles are going to magically create a playoff team out mountcastle and whatever Adley and Grayson are when they come up.  No freaking chance.  Instead in three years you get another f***ink Olney article that says the Orioles should trade Adley and Grayson because they are too far away from being a contender.  

That would be a different article if the Orioles had built something, had started to establish a roster that could compete.  Its not an overnight thing, it take years, and its not select a path either.  You can't say "okay now we will spend on free agents" and it magically works.  You do everything at all times to try and build.  

Everyone wants to follow the Tampa model but most people think the Tampa model is a strong farm.  Its not.  The Tampa model is the unrelenting thirst for talent whatever the means whether that's Evan Longoria (draftee), Wander (Intl), Carlos Pena (waiver) or Charlie Morton (Free agent).  It trading guys a year too early, but not counting solely on the returns to fill the void.  Its not identifying one prospect as the future "guy", its making sure you have three who can do the job.

 

First, I wanted the Orioles to sign a real infielder, a real starting pitcher, abs a real bullpen arm. And I mean solid to good ML players, not just retread long shots. So this team is not what I wanted. That said, Elias did not mislead you or any other fans. He clearly sees the Os situation as much farther away from the hat they want than most of us. He never even  slightly hinted that they were going to sign a few airy free agnet much less multiple ones. He’s never hinted that they were approaching the time ti add ML players via trades.  
 

Second, the team is performing almost exactly how most posters predicted before the season started. I don’t know if you voted in the preseason poll, but over 65% of OH posters who did vote thought the Orioles would win 65 games or less. And that’s almost exactly the pace they on. I don’t think a single poster thought the orioles would win more than 71 games. The wildcard talk was total pie in the sky over optimism based on a decent week or two of baseball. 

Third, if you think having a record that is three games better in mid May means something, then you need to lay off the pipe. 

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Its not three games.  Its three games and something reassembling a MLB infield.  Means, they should stop yanking our chains as fans and selling some 6 year rebuilding process.  Look at the result this year.  Look at threads with some level of hope for a turnaround. 

I said it would a different article because this should have been the year they actually started developing a winning product.  That article, in so many words, says the Orioles don't have a single current major leaguer that will be on a contending team (maybe moutcastle).  You think if thats the case, if the Orioles trade Mullins, Mancini and Hays, that the Orioles are going to magically create a playoff team out mountcastle and whatever Adley and Grayson are when they come up.  No freaking chance.  Instead in three years you get another f***ink Olney article that says the Orioles should trade Adley and Grayson because they are too far away from being a contender.  

That would be a different article if the Orioles had built something, had started to establish a roster that could compete.  Its not an overnight thing, it take years, and its not select a path either.  You can't say "okay now we will spend on free agents" and it magically works.  You do everything at all times to try and build.  

Everyone wants to follow the Tampa model but most people think the Tampa model is a strong farm.  Its not.  The Tampa model is the unrelenting thirst for talent whatever the means whether that's Evan Longoria (draftee), Wander (Intl), Carlos Pena (waiver) or Charlie Morton (Free agent).  It trading guys a year too early, but not counting solely on the returns to fill the void.  Its not identifying one prospect as the future "guy", its making sure you have three who can do the job.

 

The Tampa Bay model entails taking risks, including trading good players and being opportunistic rather than waiting for the perfect moment to make a move.

So far, Elias has been unwilling, or just plain scared, to do anything decisive or risky that he might regret or be criticized for. Everything seems to be motivated by a desire to keep options open in the event lightning strikes and a guy like Ryan McKenna becomes a great ballplayer. Marginal major leaguers get 14 chances to succeed. Almost nobody with an ML contract gets dumped. No trades of prospects to add talent where there's a shortfall. No long-term free agents, of course. No decisions on retaining or cashing in on team control of Mancini, Means, Montcastle, Santander (a ship that may have sailed), Mullins, Hays. Hard to get further from the Tampa Bay model.

[spiritof66]

8 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Extend them or keep stacking talent.  Worst case is letting time go by doing nothing.  Let’s not go down looking!  Again…

Elias is coming up the hard part of the rebuild. It will require him to make some difficult decisions that he's avoided so far: what to do about the team's few established big leaguers with both trade value and continuing value to the Orioles, which players to promote from the minors and whom they'll displace on the roster, when and how to start obtaining significant talent through free agent signings and trades that will increase the payroll, etc. , etc.

It doesn't appear that Elias, in his previous MLB posts, has made those kinds of decisions. With the Orioles, other than draft decisions (and, I guess, international signing decisions), Elias seems to have shied away from significant personnel decisions, especially those that entail parting with players that have any promise -- and many who don't -- or testing the young talent in the major leagues. The lack of decision-making is, in part, why we have a lineup stuffed with minimum-salary filler who, but for the Orioles, wouldn't be in MLB at all. I would have thought that by now trades, signings and maybe extensions would be among the weapons deployed by Elias to fill gaps in projected contending teams. And I thought by now there would be more promotions to the Orioles of some top prospects, accompanied by the departure of some of the filler.

So far, Elias hasn't been subject to the kinds of criticisms most GMs expose themselves to: lousy trades (judged either at the time of the trade or in hindsight), released players succeeding elsewhere, overpaying free agents, unwise extensions of veteran players, that sort of stuff. He's going to have to make some decisions pretty soon -- this past off-season was the time to start, in my opinion, but certainly by the coming off-season. Then we can start to assess what kind of GM we've got. 

[Camden_yardbird]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

First, I wanted the Orioles to sign a real infielder, a real starting pitcher, abs a real bullpen arm. And I mean solid to good ML players, not just retread long shots. So this team is not what I wanted. That said, Elias did not mislead you or any other fans. He clearly sees the Os situation as much farther away from the hat they want than most of us. He never even  slightly hinted that they were going to sign a few airy free agnet much less multiple ones. He’s never hinted that they were approaching the time ti add ML players via trades.  
 

Second, the team is performing almost exactly how most posters predicted before the season started. I don’t know if you voted in the preseason poll, but over 65% of OH posters who did vote thought the Orioles would win 65 games or less. And that’s almost exactly the pace they on. I don’t think a single poster thought the orioles would win more than 71 games. The wildcard talk was total pie in the sky over optimism based on a decent week or two of baseball. 

Third, if you think having a record that is three games better in mid May means something, then you need to lay off the pipe. 

1. I never felt mislead.  In fact he did a great job of me not being the least bit invested.  If he had made those moves we might be having a different conversation.  Add in the slow play of prospects and Elias has done a great job of making a bottom feeder out of a team that could be a decent off season away from a .500 season.  The mindset is where I have a problem.  And the ownership...but thats a different thread.

2. Great to hear 3 years into a rebuild no one has expectations that the Orioles not lose 100 games.  Given that the big signings were Odor and Lyles, I didn't either.

3.  Re-read my post.  Its not 3 games, its 3 games and 2-3 more real major leaguers on this team.  Signifcantly changes the conversation. 

Don't try and create straw men arguments, and especially not straw men arguments I already addressed.

[vab]

Elias certainly hasn't done much with the major league roster because he's putting everything into the minors and building an international program from scratch. People just don't seem to realize that this was practically an expansion team when Elias got here and he hasn't had the luxury of the extra picks that actual expansion clubs get. He's also doing this in the toughest division, probably, in American professional sports. Add in a whole minor league season lost and it isn't any wonder this rebuild isn't as far along as anyone would like. Even with all that he has already established one of if not the best regarded minor league system in the game and we should start seeing the first real fruits of that soon with Rutchsman and Gray-Rod. This is really, really hard man and I'm as tired of the losing as anybody but the only way this club can become a consistent contender is to have the best or very close to the best player development system in the game and every resource needs to go to that until there's enough of a core in Baltimore that a solid trade and a key free agent pick-up or two can get this organization over the top. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Elias obviously has a plan.   A major part of the plan seems to be delaying the debut of the first major top prospects such as Adley and GrayRod.  Adley could have been called up in August or September.  GrayRod could have been a September call up.  A case could be made that Adley and GrayRod are the best position player and pitcher in the O's organization.  I know that Elias is trying to have a strong nucleus of young players with several years of control.  It would have been nice if Elias and the Angelos brothers had made some moves in the offseason to show a commitment to winning.  If no major moves are made this coming offseason, you have to trslly question the O's commitment to winning.

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t think it’s time to trade Mullins or Hays yet. Unless, you get absolutely blown away for Mullins by a team believing he’s a perennial 30/30 CF. 
 

Mancini, Santander, and Lyles, get sold off to the highest bidder. I don’t think Elias is too attached to bullpen arms either, I just don’t see anyone having much value right now. 

[jerios55]

I have a hard time believing Mancini would bring back a big return.  

If we talk about maintaining fan support than he is the guy you keep (and there aren't many fans coming. So maybe it doesn't matter).  Lowest return of the bunch and easily the most recognized player.  

Losing Mullins and/or Hays would hurt, but if the package coming back was big enough,  I think it would help.  Especially if its for guys that are closer to the majors.

Ultimately, keeping Mancini would be sentimental vs baseball decision and I get that.  However, if it's just for a few more low A guys that are lotto tickets I just don't see it being worth it.  Obviously, it always depends on the return, I just see Mancini's to have more sentimental value and Hays/Mullins to have more trade/return value.

 

[jabba72]

9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think it’s time to trade Mullins or Hays yet. Unless, you get absolutely blown away for Mullins by a team believing he’s a perennial 30/30 CF. 
 

Mancini, Santander, and Lyles, get sold off to the highest bidder. I don’t think Elias is too attached to bullpen arms either, I just don’t see anyone having much value right now. 

Im skeptical we'd get anything back for them but a dominican lottery ticket. And since these guys actually have some value to the team, I'd rather just keep them. Losing all three would probably ensure a worse record that I dont want. Since there is no benefit to tanking this year I believe.

[NCRaven]

21 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

I have a hard time believing Mancini would bring back a big return.  

Agreed.  The return on a Mancini trade is bound to be underwhelming.  I think that Lyles and a bullpen arm like Lopez are far more likely to be traded.  I would be okay with trading one of Mullins or Hays if the return is surprisingly good.

[oldfan]

You trade Mullins or Hays, who takes that spot, McKenna? And if you do make the trade, what comes back?

[DrungoHazewood]

On 5/18/2022 at 8:25 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Do you want to have a 29 year old and a 30 year old making arbitration 3 salaries on your 2025 roster?  Wouldn't you rather that payroll and roster flexibility?  On top of whatever talent you can get for them.

I'd like to win.  At some point you have to have mid-career, mid-peak players on the roster.  If that means payroll is up above $50M a year for a few years, so be it. Not my money.

[osfan83]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd like to win.  At some point you have to have mid-career, mid-peak players on the roster.  If that means payroll is up above $50M a year for a few years, so be it. Not my money.

Doo you think the O's revenue can support $50M a year in player payroll? 

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, jerios55 said:

I have a hard time believing Mancini would bring back a big return.  

What would you give up for a 1.5 years of an average-ish DH/1B at his salaries if you were the GM of a contender? Even if I had a black hole at one of those positions it wouldn't be a big return.

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Doo you think the O's revenue can support $50M a year in player payroll? 

I mean, they only get $125M or $150M in shared revenues, plus whatever MASN pays, maybe $50M in ticket revenue, plus parking, concessions, merchandise... So on $250M in revenue they might be able to squeeze out $50M or $60M for player payroll. The Angelos boys might have to subsist on Spam and peanut butter for a while, but it's for the good of the Baltimore area.