Who do you want? Who do we take?

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, according to that BA article, a team can go up to 4.9% over their draft pool and not face a draft pick penalty.  That would mean the Os could pay up to about $828,000 and just have to pay the tax.  That tax is 75%.  I wasn’t able to find what it was 75% of but im assuming the draft pool.

I don't think many teams do.   Not that it is collusion or anything...just prudent conservation of financial flexibility.

I read an article speculating that Cohen's Mets might be in a sweetspot this year to just blow up the system.    Mets are forecast for a small 2023 pool, they have the 2022 double-up with unsigned Kumar...he's a disruptor getting going.   I believe a "Competition Committee" would respond if he does anything too unruly.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I don't think many teams do.   Not that it is collusion or anything...just prudent conservation of financial flexibility.

I read an article speculating that Cohen's Mets might be in a sweetspot this year to just blow up the system.    Mets are forecast for a small 2023 pool, they have the 2022 double-up with unsigned Kumar...he's a disruptor getting going.   I believe a "Competition Committee" would respond if he does anything too unruly.

As the one article showed that I linked to, 20 teams exceeded it in 2021 and the Pirates have apparently done it every year.

[Just Regular]

17 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 Crawford and Misiorowski both have big arms and if they don't succeed as starters have closer profiles.

If in three Sunday nights, Elias backs up a Bregman/Brooks Lee pick with two Chris Ray types like this, I'm going to be forecasting all three of them on to the May 2023 roster.     Possibly somewhat happily.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

If in three Sunday nights, Elias backs up a Bregman/Brooks Lee pick with two Chris Ray types like this, I'm going to be forecasting all three of them on to the May 2023 roster.     Possibly somewhat happily.

If Lee is the pick, there is basically zippy chance he is up after just a few months in the minors.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Just Regular]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Actually, as I read more, the 75% is actually on the overage.  So, the way I read that is if the Os exceeding their draft pool by 800,000, they have to pay 75% of that in a tax, which is another 600k.

Ballpark I believe Steve Cohen's tweet about draft pool dollars having perhaps 5X value in future mid-case Surplus Value for Clubs.

The 75% overage is I feel small markets trying to game system lest the Dodgers or Yankees just say screw this Restraint of Trade made up rule.   This is basically what Preller's Padres did 6 years ago with IFA's before they changed the rules.

July 2, 2016 https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sdut-san-diego-padres-2016-international-signings-2016jul02-story.html

December 2, 2016 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-mlb-international-signing-rules/

Hank Steinbrenner and the other 28 Owners have been team-oriented enough to mostly color inside those lines with American kids.    The fun watching the Mets this year will be if Cohen just doesn't care about 75% or "losing all his 2023 picks" because he is just going to break the heart of every NCAA recruiting director thinking they are getting an elite recruit to campus by giving all of them the ~$3mm they want.    At 175% of bonus price, maybe the Mets (or any disruptor....c'mon John Angelos) "only get" 3X in future mid-case Surplus Value, but in three years his 20 Gunnar Hendersons are the benefit for having $100mm+ at the ready to invest in the back half of the decade.   

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

July 2, 2016 https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sdut-san-diego-padres-2016-international-signings-2016jul02-story.html

Off topic, six years out this doesn't look to be going that great.    Good thing they snagged Tatis in that minor trade.

AJ Preller definitely isn't GM'ing for his job this summer.

As to whether the Mets would try something like this, I doubt they will but MLB Clubs obviously have a much better read on 18 year old Americans than 16 year old Dominicans.    There's even a Combine now!

What would be priceless on Day2 Monday would be the tone of the MLB Network panel coverage if the Mets made this play.

[ChosenOne21]

There should be some hard cap on spending to avoid exactly this. It can be a few million higher than the soft cap, just enough that someone can't do what was suggested.

I doubt anyone is going to spend that much regardless, but it couldn't hurt to have the rule

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

There should be some hard cap on spending to avoid exactly this. It can be a few million higher than the soft cap, just enough that someone can't do what was suggested.

I doubt anyone is going to spend that much regardless, but it couldn't hurt to have the rule

I think it should be available as an option if a team wants to go that route.  It won't hurt competitive balance.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it should be available as an option if a team wants to go that route.  It won't hurt competitive balance.

Yea I mean, who cares?  If a team elects to do it in draft, it just means they are screwing themselves for the next draft.

If you think about it, if you are the Mets it’s a good strategy.  They probably won’t draft this high for a while and they if they can lots of talent and punt next year when they figure to pick in the mid to late 20s, so be it.

[OriolesMagic83]

That would be a real bad idea for the Mets.  I know the penalty  for going 5% over the draft pool is loss of 1st round draft pick next year.  The penalty increases to 1st and 2nd rounders and 100% tax for going 10% over the pool and loss of 2 1st rounders for going 15% over the pool.  If a team decided to go 100% over its draft pool, new penalties would be added on the spot.  Baseball is a monopoly, so Manfred could impose a one time penalty and would be supported by the other 29 owners. 

[RZNJ]

As of today I think the Orioles will take Jackson Holliday.

1. They've met with his father and discussed numbers and it's reported he'll sign for 8M which saves them 800K.   

2. They might actually like Holliday better because he's got a chance to stay at SS and his tools are similar to Jones.

3. Although he doesn't provide as much savings as Termarr Johnson (reportedly willing to sign for 7M or less) he does provide better overall tools and the chance to stay at SS.   Holliday is a better runner and thrower than Johnson and has more projection as well.

4. With the extra picks in the compensation rounds they can still use the 800K in savings and go underslot in other spots if they want to go big overslot at #33.

 

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

1. They've met with his father and discussed numbers and it's reported he'll sign for 8M which saves them 800K.   

Source on this? 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Source on this? 

I'm not sure how good the source is but SportsGuy had a tweet from someone who stated that they were had a sitdown in St. Louis.    I have to go look for it.  It's in one of these draft threads.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

As of today I think the Orioles will take Jackson Holliday.

1. They've met with his father and discussed numbers and it's reported he'll sign for 8M which saves them 800K.   

2. They might actually like Holliday better because he's got a chance to stay at SS and his tools are similar to Jones.

3. Although he doesn't provide as much savings as Termarr Johnson (reportedly willing to sign for 7M or less) he does provide better overall tools and the chance to stay at SS.   Holliday is a better runner and thrower than Johnson and has more projection as well.

4. With the extra picks in the compensation rounds they can still use the 800K in savings and go underslot in other spots if they want to go big overslot at #33.

 

100% agree. I feel like Elias has been waiting for a SS to take in the first round that was worthy of a first round pick. Don't see them taking a 2B-only guy 1.1. 

For me it's between Holliday and Jones and I see them going Holliday.