Infield batting, besides 1B

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Neither do I.   I’m just citing the most extreme number imaginable.   Every player has some number they have to hit.   Put it this way: Mateo has hit .113/.175/.170 in June.   Do you think he’ll remain a starter all season if he continues at that pace?

Do you think he is stay at that level.  I don't.  He had a 648 OPS in May.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think he is stay at that level.  I don't.

I don’t think anyone would suggest that he will stay at 350 OPS pace but he’s not a good hitter.  That has been proven over his pro career.

[wildcard]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s always hard to say without knowing what the overall offensive environment will be.  Overall, offense is down 0.41 runs/game from 2021 to 2022.   It’s one thing to average 5 runs a game when the league average is 4.60; it’s another to do it when the league average is 4.19.   Who knows what tweaks MLB will make to the ball or whatever for 2023?

So, rather than putting it in a runs per game context, I’ll just say it would surprise me if the Orioles were one of the top 3 offenses in the league next year.   I won’t go so far as saying it’s impossible, especially before knowing what moves they make next winter.   

You just wrote in another thread:   "If Henderson turns out to be an excellent major league starting position player, that is a game-changer for us."  

[jdwilde1]

10 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

The Orioles also in general during his time had the best ERA in the sport. 
 

That’s not going to happen in 2023. 
 

Years ago I broke down the Orioles rank in ERA during specific time frames. It was just raw ERA. They were incredible at run prevention for about 15 straight years. Their formula was pitching and defense. It’s how they maintained their competitive play after Brooks, Frank, Boog etc all declined and/or left the team. Then Flanny, McGregor, Martinez over time replaced the Cuellar’s and McNally’s. Palmer was the constant. 
 

Then in the 80’s it unraveled. 

The Orioles’ defensive prowess during their heyday was ungodly.  Brooks and Belanger on the left side (Luis Aparicio before the Blade), Davey Johnson or Bobby Grich were both gold glovers at 2B, Paul Blair in CF, it’s just crazy.   A few years ago ESPN ranked the O’s of 1969-1973 as the clear choice as the greatest defensive MLB team in history, but that level of defense was really a constant for about 20 years.  If anyone ever wonders why so many pitchers excelled in Baltimore, there is your answer.  Especially when home runs and strike outs were not nearly as frequent as they are in today’s game.
 

https://es.pn/2btgYT3
 

 

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You just wrote in another thread:   "If Henderson turns out to be an excellent major league starting position player, that is a game-changer for us."  

And I believe that.   Especially if he replaces Mateo.  

Whether he’ll turn into an excellent major league player, and how quickly that happens, remains to be seen.   And there’s a lot of other variables.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And I believe that.   Especially if he replaces Mateo.  

Whether he’ll turn into an excellent major league player, and how quickly that happens, remains to be seen.   And there’s a lot of other variables.

Flip-Flop.

[btdart20]

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mateo has hit .113/.175/.170 in June.   

  Chuck wagon!  The 32+% K% is his Achilles heel.  Plate discipline and/or contact and some speed assisted Babip 'regression' to league average, and he'd be solid offensively.  36.8% Chase % (vs. 28.3% MLB avg and 32.5% for Mateo in 2021) and 39.6% 1st strike swinging (vs. 29.3% MLB avg in 2022 and vs. 27.3% for Mateo in 2021).

@Just Regularcomment above regarding the skills/arb stack (if we assume recent norms of financial resources) is interesting.  I have to think Elias has the foresight to have an anticipated arb contract range at which they would/would not bring him back.  If they're not planning on bringing (anticipating a higher arb number), then they should shop him too.  But I think he's back to start the 2023 season as SS and then moves to UT as the Gunnar/Westburg are promoted.

 

Odor has served his purpose buying a little time.  He's provided some fun moments and has a large clubhouse influence.  But he is what he is offensively...  A pop-up/low Babip hitter with K% issues (low OBP).  He'll hit a 15-18 HR (and the occasional key HR), but usually a non-factor offensively otherwise.  But he's been given way too much credit defensively, IMO.  -6 OAA, -4 RAA, -1. UZR, -0.2 dWAR.

Odor's June triple-slash = .137/.262/.353.  Pretty much what he's done on the year (.199/.257/.388).  At least Mateo brings speed and defense to the table.

None of the next 2B candidates are the type of guy any org would consider manipulating the timeclock over (assuming Westburg still needs some AAA ABs).

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You just wrote in another thread:   "If Henderson turns out to be an excellent major league starting position player, that is a game-changer for us."  

Gunnar is not going to singlehandedly produce a run per game. Peak Mike Trout is worth about 1/3 run per game above average. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Gunnar is not going to singlehandedly produce a run per game. Peak Mike Trout is worth about 1/3 run per game above average. 

It's easier to make a big impact when not only you produce at a high level but you are replacing someone who was well below average.

That being said, of course WC is exaggerating.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think you are a little too wrapped up in the numbers.   I think Elias/Hyde are very impressed with Mateo defense and how it helps the pitching staff.   I think no matter what Mateo hits as long as he continues to show great range and a strong arm he will get the majority of starts at SS.

Looking ahead to next year if the O's add Gunnar, Westburg and Stowers to the offense while losing Mancini and Odor it looks like that offense will score 5 to 6 runs per game on average.   If that happens they will be able to carry Mateo based on his defense.

Elias/Hyde are all about development and I am sure they will continue to try to improve Mateo's offense.

I think Elias is constructing a team not a bunch of individuals that by themselves must hit certain offensive numbers.

[Frobby]

Only if you have reading comprehension problems.  

[jabba72]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Neither do I.   I’m just citing the most extreme number imaginable.   Every player has some number they have to hit.   Put it this way: Mateo has hit .113/.175/.170 in June.   Do you think he’ll remain a starter all season if he continues at that pace?

No I think they'll have to find a replacement for Mateo next year if he finishes with a sub .650 OPS, which is looking probable to me. 

[Gentile4]

Obviously, Mateo is no Belanger, but he's by far the best SS option we have at the moment. The data that shows he's well above average defensively, so it makes sense to play him there. That said, it's the offensive boat anchors at 2B and 3B that prompt many to find another lineup option. If we had reasonable offensive production at 2B and 3B, couldn't we live w/Mateo at SS until one of the young players is ready?

[sportsfan8703]

Any update on Urias?  This has been a lost year for him.  He seemed to be really putting things together last year.  

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Any update on Urias?  This has been a lost year for him.  He seemed to be really putting things together last year.  

He’s still not swinging a bat, as of 2-3 days ago.