Halfway to 74 wins?

[RVAOsFan]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

Back on point...

 

The Orioles are 3-2 in July and now on a pace for 75 wins at .463.  But the pen seems to be a little strained.

I agree the pen could use a shot in the arm right now, someone like... I don't know... DL Hall???

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-midseason-update-for-the-american-league/

ZiPS signing on for a Grayson-less 71 wins.

Is replacing the worst 150 IP with Grayson and the "2022 Orioles 3B" with Gunnar a 6-win forecast improvement in both spots?    77, 83....what can the tool of money do?

0.2% wildcard odds!

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just bringing this back to objective reality, in the preseason OH poll (which SG actually started), fewer than 8% of posters predicted the team would win more than 70 games.   So, if the O’s accomplish that, they will have exceeded almost everybody’s expectations.   The strong majority of posters (over 65%) thought we’d win 65 or fewer.   

Obviously, it is easier to envision the 2023 Orioles as potential contenders if they win 70+ this year than if they win 65 or fewer.  There’s simply less ground to make up.  And, they only win 70+ If there have been several positive developments that were far from certain when the year began (e.g., Wells developing into a reliable starter).

I think another factor impacting the view of next year is the speed with which Henderson and Westburg have made it to AAA, and their success there to date, and particularly Henderson’s ascension from being a top 100 prospect to a top 5-25 prospect (depending on your source).   Those are very important factors in how next year is viewed.   It wasn’t obvious when this year started that those two might be ready for the majors next Opening Day or even before.

There’s still a lot that can happen between now and then end of this season that could color one’s view of whether the O’s can contend next year.  But the picture is undoubtedly brighter now than it was last offseason.

How did you find those threads?  I was wondering if/how I voted!  I enjoyed your 'project the OPS' posts too.  It would be pretty cool to put those types of polls in a single pinned thread each year.  (I know I blew the Hays OPS, but wondering how close I was otherwise!)

[Uli2001]

If the Orioles win 74 games, that will be a 22-game improvement over last year. My guess is that this is a pretty rare occurrence.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

If the Orioles win 74 games, that will be a 22-game improvement over last year. My guess is that this is a pretty rare occurrence.

Eh.

Tigers did it twice in a three year span (43-72-71-95).

My guess is the top gainer in wins in a given year is somewhere around that level on average.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, btdart20 said:

How did you find those threads?  I was wondering if/how I voted!  I enjoyed your 'project the OPS' posts too.  It would be pretty cool to put those types of polls in a single pinned thread each year.  (I know I blew the Hays OPS, but wondering how close I was otherwise!)

There’s an icon at the top of the screen (phone version) that looks like a magnifying glass where you can do searches.  On the computer version there’s just a space near the top for doing searches.   Once you hit 500 posts, you can only do searches if you’re a plus member.   But you’ve got 70+ posts to go before you get to that point.

Anyway, here’s the thread:

 

[NCRaven]

If we get over 70 I will be talking some **** as one of the six.  If not, just forget I said anything.

[Daddy-O's]

Forget 70 wins.  I say, win 80 games.  We'll rent a bus, head west and throw a party on Joc Pederson's front lawn.

 

[spleen1015]

If we don't have those 2 walkoffs against the Twins last week we'd be 1 game under .500. 

[ScGO's]

6 games back, if they get to within 5, I'm making a thread

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, spleen1015 said:

If we don't have those 2 walkoffs against the Twins last week we'd be 1 game under .500. 

You could just as easily flip that around and say if we didn’t have the two walk-offs against Texas we’d be 9 under.   Right now, our actual record and Pythagorean record are the same.  Our record is a good reflection of who we’ve been to this point.   But we’re now at 72 games of .500 baseball after a 3-8 start.  

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Eh.

Tigers did it twice in a three year span (43-72-71-95).

My guess is the top gainer in wins in a given year is somewhere around that level on average.

Yes, it's pretty unremarkable to gain 20 wins in a season.  It might not happen every year, but a lot of years.  30+ is where it gets rare.  In my lifetime the Orioles have had six seasons of 19 or more wins or losses than the year prior.  About once a decade.  With thirty teams, if that's typical, it should happen at least a few times a year.

It's a myth that teams generally have a smooth curve of development or decline.  I think win totals like 65, 68, 75, 69, 88 are more common than 65, 70, 75, 80, 85.  Just as it's more common to win 91, 97, 88, 68, 72 than 95, 90, 85, 80, 75.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, it's pretty unremarkable to gain 20 wins in a season.  It might not happen every year, but a lot of years. 

I looked at this for the 21st century a while ago.  It’s basically a one-team per year occurrence on average.  Some years none, some years 2 or even 3.   

[NCRaven]

For me, this season’s butt kicker was getting swept by Detroit.  That was the low point.  I still think 70 is possible.  But, I can’t help worrying over whether the current rotation and a lineup with our 7-8-9 hitters can get it done.

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, ScGO's said:

6 games back, if they get to within 5, I'm making a thread

 

I think through the All-Star break, I'm looking at the ratio of distance of the Orioles from AL East 2nd place (and very likely the league's 3rd best record), and the distance of AL East 2nd place from the Yankees.

Currently that ratio is less than 0.50.

I hope @SteveA is ready to pull hard for the Yankees against the Red Sox in their 7 matchups before the ASB starting tonight.    Red Sox pitching is perhaps about as bedraggled as Orioles pitching this last week and a half.

Every medium team in the West and Central are big Yankees-Orioles fans in the second half.