Your second half expectations for Rutschman?

[Frobby]

Adley Rutschman joined the team in Game 41.   In the 52 games since then, he’s played in 46, started in 43, with 34 starts at catcher and 9 at DH.   To date, his slash line is .222/.302/.420 (104 OPS+), 5 HR and 16 RBI.   He’s accumulated 1.3 rWAR to date.   There are 70 games remaining.

So, what do you expect from Adley over the final 70 games?   Based on the pace he’s on now, you’d expect another 1.7 - 1.8 rWAR, finishing around 3.0 rWAR despite missing the first quarter of the season.   That wouldn’t be too shabby.  

However, I’m greedy and expect a little more than that over the last 70 games.  Adley’s OPS by month:

May .529

June .775

July to date: .794

I say Adley puts up an .800 OPS the rest of the way.  And while I don’t know exactly how much that extra offense would add to his WAR, I’m going to say he’ll be good for 2.3 over the final 70 games.   If he were to do that, his final OPS wouid be in the .765 range and his final rWAR around 3.6.

What say you?

[sevastras]

I figured you had the ability to move threads to the proper forum instead of deleting them and starting over. 
My thought was that I can’t believe the value he has added with mediocre offensive performance. I believe he will have multiple 8-10 WAR seasons and that is hard to believe. I am also in the camp that there is an unquantifiable “Adley effect” that he is just used to winning so everyone else better jump on board.  We kind of saw it with Manny to a lesser extent. He really likes Schoop and the same the other way around. Schoop was elevated playing with Manny and less so with anyone else. 

[Frobby]

Sorry about making you re-do your post.  You can’t move a thread from the wrong forum without help from the mods, which wasn’t likely at midnight, so I figured I’d delete it and start over while it was only 4 posts deep.

To your point about the “Adley effect,” they’re 27-19 when he plays, 19-27 when he doesn’t.  25-18 when he starts, including 18-16 at catcher and 7-2 at DH.  Now, do I think the team is thatmuch better just because of Adley?  No.  But I did note John Means’ comment that when the org brought Adley to the majors that was like a signal that it was time to start winning.  I hope they keep doing it in the second half.  

[Sports Guy]

Yea I think he ends the year with an OPS north of 750.  I think we go into the offseason fully expecting a 5+ WAR player in 2023.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Looking under the hood a bit, just about all of the underlying numbers are super encouraging. He's better than league average in just about every facet of the game at the plate as (1) a rookie and (2) a catcher with top top defensive performance (see the framing and pop time percentiles). That he's slightly above average in sprint speed is a cherry on top when one considers that the run tool was considered the one blemish on his prospect profile.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/adley-rutschman-668939?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[maybenxtyr]

I think you had a poll prior to the season about Adley. I tried to find it but I've never had much success using the search feature. 

 

I think I had him in the mid .700 range and 2.5-3 wins. I'm sticking with that. I think his hitting will round into form over the rest of the season.

[glenn__davis]

I think he's very close to being a very dangerous player.  You watch his ABs, he tracks pitches extremely well, he gets good swings off.  I think with his uppercut swing the timing needs to be pretty in-tune.  It seems to me like he's popping up a lot of pitches that he tracks just right and gets good swings on.  If he can fix that against MLB pitching I think he's going to be an extremely good hitter.

[Sports Guy]

Pain

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Pain

If you are going to do something, do it properly.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I think he carries an .800 OPS or so the rest of the way.  Some of the doubles start turning into homers.  And I think he'll go on one monster hot streak.  Like, a MONSTER hot streak.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I think you had a poll prior to the season about Adley. I tried to find it but I've never had much success using the search feature. 

 

I think I had him in the mid .700 range and 2.5-3 wins. I'm sticking with that. I think his hitting will round into form over the rest of the season.

There were actually two different threads.  One related to OPS (and had a poll), the other related to WAR/162 games played (no poll).   In the poll thread, the majority had Adley at .800 or better.   Of course, nobody knew that league wide average OPS would be down by 30 points (.731 last year, .701 this year).   So, the adjusted median from the poll would be maybe .780 or so.

 

[Just Regular]

 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There were actually two different threads.  One related to OPS (and had a poll), the other related to WAR/162 games played (no poll).   In the poll thread, the majority had Adley at .800 or better.   Of course, nobody knew that league wide average OPS would be down by 30 points (.731 last year, .701 this year).   So, the adjusted median from the poll would be maybe .780 or so.

 

Looks like I was in the .800-.839 Mark... that's a stretch for the rest of this season. I really think he would have been on the opening day roster and then that .800 would have made sense. Either way, I believe he's still going to get hot and push it close to .800.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Looks like I was in the .800-.839 Mark... that's a stretch for the rest of this season. I really think he would have been on the opening day roster and then that .800 would have made sense. Either way, I believe he's still going to get hot and push it close to .800.

As Frobby said, the decrease in OPS matters and not something we knew.  
 

That said, I wouldn’t rule out an 800+ OPS but I think something in the 740-775 range is more realistic.

[Filmstudy]

I'd over/under him at .340 OBP and .440 SLG the rest of the way.  I think we'll see as much patience as we have so far with a better ability to barrel up balls, but possibly a slight downtick of XBH but with more HR and singles, resulting in the higher figures.  As his offense improves and the Orioles make some trades, I think they'll find a way to get him on the lineup almost every day whether DH, C, or even 1B.  Importantly, if some bats are traded, he'll be getting more meaningful ABs from the 4 and 5 spot where he'll be protected and lead off more innings.  In his current #6 spot, I feel as if he is regularly wasted.

Defense improves in terms of opposing base stealing with a similar to-date impact on pitch framing and continued fine pitching staff management.

I really dislike WAR compared to WAA, so I'll estimate for his playing time, he would improve an otherwise .500 team to .522-.525 with his 2nd-half play.  To me, that's a lot easier to understand how he'll contribute to the next Orioles contender.

As of right now, I'd expect .800 OPS for 2023 with a long tail to the upside.