Trade Deadline Primer/Thread

[Roll Tide]

Just now, owknows said:

Their trade value is lower than their present value to the Orioles.

Only if your an impatient fan. I have nothing against that stance if it yours. But, I’m certain that Elias isn’t looking at it that way. He’s in the later stages of the rebuild and he’s not going to cheat it. He said they aren’t giving guys away to clear them. So it will be interesting to see what happens by the deadline.

[oriolefan1035]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Isn’t that a month away?

5 is all you need anyway. If they get 5, that leaves 12IP between 7 pen arms every 3 days. I think they’ll survive. Not to mention we’re yo-yoing that 7th spot anyway. Beau Sulser served that role yesterday. It was Vespi before. We can always DFA and recall Baumann if we need to have someone just eat innings in a losing effort.

[owknows]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Sooner or later your bullpen is going to run out of gas.

Yes... that is the traditional way of thinking.

But let's think out of the box for a minute.

If the number of outs/innings is evenly distributed over the entire pitching staff by intent, instead of being biased heavily toward the starters by hoping they go 7 or 8... doesn't that leave the inning count for the starters much lower, and more evenly distribute the load?

And wouldn't it be possible that journeymen starters might be more effective, and even change their approach to the game, knowing they're only going 5?

And wouldn't it be possible that borderline starters could give you very effective stints out of the pen, that they couldn't possibly keep up for 5 or six innings?

There have been teams in the recent past that have very effectively changed the distribution of workload on their staffs by employing the idea of "openers".

Maybe the Orioles are toying with a similar concept... by shooting for 5 innings..  and spreading the load around.

And that this strategy makes your more traditional view of the bullpen a little dated.

Maybe they are... maybe they aren't... I don't know

 

 

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Only if your an impatient fan. I have nothing against that stance if it yours. But, I’m certain that Elias isn’t looking at it that way. He’s in the later stages of the rebuild and he’s not going to cheat it. He said they aren’t giving guys away to clear them. So it will be interesting to see what happens by the deadline.

No... not only if you're an impatient fan.

The value of Mancini's bat is of greater value to the Orioles (who don't currently have a pure hitter DH replacement to step in for Mancini) than it would be to a potential trade partner. Therefore the cost to the Orioles in potential for this season would be higher than the trade return it would bring.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

Yes... that is the traditional way of thinking.

But let's think out of the box for a minute.

If the number of outs/innings is evenly distributed over the entire pitching staff by intent, instead of being biased heavily toward the starters by hoping they go 7 or 8... doesn't that leave the inning count for the starters much lower, and more evenly distribute the load?

And wouldn't it be possible that journeymen starters might be more effective, and even change their approach to the game, knowing they're only going 5?

And wouldn't it be possible that borderline starters could give you very effective stints out of the pen, that they couldn't possibly keep up for 5 or six innings?

There have been teams in the recent past that have very effectively changed the distribution of workload on their staffs by employing the idea of "openers".

Maybe the Orioles are toying with a similar concept... by shooting for 5 innings..  and spreading the load around.

And that this strategy makes your more traditional view of the bullpen a little dated.

Maybe they are... maybe they aren't... I don't know

 

 

Not 7 or 8….6 pitching into the 7th.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

No... not only if you're an impatient fan.

The value of Mancini's bat is of greater value to the Orioles (who don't currently have a pure hitter DH replacement to step in for Mancini) than it would be to a potential trade partner. Therefore the cost to the Orioles in potential for this season would be higher than the trade return it would bring.

I guess we will see….but we certainly disagree. Stowers should be here now and in the lineup. He’s part of the future and is ready. So you need to move Santander or Mancini. 

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I guess we will see….but we certainly disagree. Stowers should be here now and in the lineup. He’s part of the future and is ready. So you need to move Santander or Mancini. 

Stowers should be up.. we agree. But trading Mancini (because we don't have a drop-in DH yo replace him with) or Santander (because he's the engine of this offense) is a concession of the season while we're still in it. And that would be bad.

[luismatos4prez]

Assuming Mancini and Santander are traded, do we have enough offense to contend next year?

If the lineup includes Mullins, Rutschmann, Hays, Mountcastle, Henderson, Stowers, Westburg, Urias, and Mateo, is that a lineup that can contend? There's a lot of uncertainty there.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

Stowers should be up.. we agree. But trading Mancini (because we don't have a drop-in DH yo replace him with) or Santander (because he's the engine of this offense) is a concession of the season while we're still in it. And that would be bad.

Not if your goal is long term. If you trade Mancini, Santander can move to DH. Or you can deal Santander and make room that way. I think who Elias can get the right deal for. 
 

Only 3 teams left in the Soto mess. Once it’s resolved the losers will be looking for a second option.

 

 

[baltfan]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I guess we will see….but we certainly disagree. Stowers should be here now and in the lineup. He’s part of the future and is ready. So you need to move Santander or Mancini. 

Move Mancini.  Keep Santander.  He is going better in the field, has more control, and can allow the Orioles to keep in contention. 

[baltfan]

15 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Assuming Mancini and Santander are traded, do we have enough offense to contend next year?

If the lineup includes Mullins, Rutschmann, Hays, Mountcastle, Henderson, Stowers, Westburg, Urias, and Mateo, is that a lineup that can contend? There's a lot of uncertainty there.

Next year, the answer is no. Maybe in a couple of years.  People underestimate the value of solid guys in the middle of the lineup. That lineup doesn’t have it.  

[oriolefan1035]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not if your goal is long term. If you trade Mancini, Santander can move to DH. Or you can deal Santander and make room that way. I think who Elias can get the right deal for. 
 

Only 3 teams left in the Soto mess. Once it’s resolved the losers will be looking for a second option.

 

 

Thinking that a .761OPS DH is going to deliver us a useful prospect is absolute fantasy land. We already have a lot of good depth in the minors and don’t need another lottery ticket at this point. We’ll be going into next season with 3/5 of a rotation made up of 2 guys that have never pitched in MLB and a guy coming off Tommy John. We’re currently getting good production out of about a dozen waiver claims and Rule 5 guys. Any chance they could regress next year? Punting this season when we have a decent chance to make the playoffs to return a lottery ticket makes less sense than believing a .761 DH will net us someone to “help us long-term.”

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Assuming Mancini and Santander are traded, do we have enough offense to contend next year?

If the lineup includes Mullins, Rutschmann, Hays, Mountcastle, Henderson, Stowers, Westburg, Urias, and Mateo, is that a lineup that can contend? There's a lot of uncertainty there.

Remember we would be getting players back presumably who can help us, plus there is always free agency. Henderson is almost certainly an upgrade over Odor. There is definitely uncertainty but also upside. I'd be fine with keeping Santander until Cowser is ready but also don't have a problem trading him.

[ScGO's]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Move Mancini.  Keep Santander.  He is going better in the field, has more control, and can allow the Orioles to keep in contention. 

I say trade both if the deal is right.  Santander has to be at peak value right?

Lopez could bring more value in the offseason or next trade deadline, but the risk that he regresses is there.  I think Mancini, Santander, and Lopez need to be shopped for prospect talent and really energize our system with another strong shot in the arm, especially after this draft.

Elias can also acquire controllable starting pitching if he wants to (or he could wait until the offseason). He can dig into the minor league talent without losing too much depth in a trade for a SP or two.

[GoldGlove21]

I think the best option may be to move bat and a reliever or Lyles in the same deal. That might get a decent return.