The Wild Card Race

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Notice how since we’ve played basically all of our games against NYY and TB, except 6, that the other teams in our division have to play each other a ton. 
 

Our season comes down to what we do against Toronto. 15 games. We control our own playoff destiny still. 

Sure we do, at this point.  I was saying in another thread, the team has played .578 baseball since the day Adley Rutschman arrived.   If we continued at that pace we’d get to 86-87 wins.   Right now the projected cutoff (just extending current records out to 162) is 85 wins.  I think the actual cutoff will be higher, but 86-87 would be in the hunt.   So, just play good baseball the rest of the way and yes, we control our own destiny.  

[sportsfan8703]

We don’t play today, but make sure to root for HOU, Minn, TEX, KC, and Det. 

[Dale]

The Orioles playoff chances range from 2.7 to 38.5% depending on algorithm based on the information sources I've checked.

2.7% Fansgraph Projection Algorithm

10% 538.com

17.1% Baseball Prospectus

35.3% Season-to-date performance projected forward (Fansgraph)

36.5% Coin-flip going forward (Fansgraph)

38.5% Baseball Reference 

Hopefully, the Orioles recent good play will continue. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Dale said:

The Orioles playoff chances range from 2.7 to 38.5% depending on algorithm based on the information sources I've checked.

2.7% Fansgraph Projection Algorithm

10% 538.com

17.1% Baseball Prospectus

35.3% Season-to-date performance projected forward (Fansgraph)

36.5% Coin-flip going forward (Fansgraph)

38.5% Baseball Reference 

Hopefully, the Orioles recent good play will continue. 

 

[LA2]

Grayson may have to play the 2012 Manny role. A post-season rotation of Lyle, an effective G-Rod, and one of Kremer, Bradish, Watkins, or Voth (on short leases) might have a chance, provided the post-Lopez bullpen hasn't collapsed by then.

Edited August 5, 2022 by LA2

[SteveA]

On 8/2/2022 at 1:40 PM, btdart20 said:

The gap between the playoff locks is growing as we near the trade deadline:

NYY - best W% and added Montas, Benintendi, and Effross addressing the bulk of their team needs.

Not that we're catching them or anything, but I'm not particularly impressed by the Yankees' improvements.  They added Montas but traded Montgomery who is having an excellent year.  Not much net gain there.   A reliever and Benintendi help but don't move the needle that much.  Carpenter has the cool down eventually, right?

[Spy Fox]

With our win and Cleveland's loss tonight, we've at least temporarily passed them for first among the teams chasing TOR/SEA/TB. 

[bluedog]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

With our win and Cleveland's loss tonight, we've at least temporarily passed them for first among the teams chasing TOR/SEA/TB. 

We are also now only 14.5 games back of the Yankees. Just sayin.

[now]

Orioles win; Jays, Mariners and Guardians lose. 

(Who's scoreboard watching?)