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Orioles get Brett Phillips

RVAOsFan

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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3 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Sure, but that extra year of service time would make him more valuable in a trade. I just like seeing us min/maxing the talent we have and getting the most value from it. It may not amount to anything, but I’m not sure there’s much value in bringing him up early either. 

Does it tho?

If the O's are unlikely to want him at that rate in his final year of team control what are the odds another team is going to trade more for that year?

Odds are against it.

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OriolesMagic83
OriolesMagic83

Finally someone who can replace Owings production.

Jammer7
Jammer7

There are improvements he can make mechanically. It looks like they already made some adjustments with him prior to yesterday’s game his hands were higher, and he was more balanced. Solid line drive h

Yardball85
Yardball85

I thought that was a COVID exception and he wasn't staying on the 40....

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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50 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Stowers isn’t here because we have Hays, Mullins, and Santander and now Vavra.  That’s 4 players for the OF and DH with Rutschman also getting DH AB’s.  No room.   Any promotion of Stowers, Henderson, or Westburg depends on either injury or the release of Rougned Odor which doesn’t seem likely.

And yet we added Phillips?

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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Just now, RarityFlaherty said:

Sure, but that extra year of service time would make him more valuable in a trade. I just like seeing us min/maxing the talent we have and getting the most value from it. It may not amount to anything, but I’m not sure there’s much value in bringing him up early either. 

How valuable is say a 30 year old Stowers going to be in a trade? Sadly, there's a much higher probability that Stowers will be out of baseball or have relatively little value when he's 30. That's just the harsh demographics of baseball. If you think about it in terms of total WAR per dollar that the Orioles will get from Stowers (including WAR they would acquire from a trade of Stowers), it's just a very low probability that the extra year will mean anything. There is at least a decent chance that the Orioles would yield more WAR from their investment in Stowers if they called him up this year so he would be better prepared for next year. 

 

The Orioles have been conservative with most of their prospects, so maybe their statistical model suggests there's a benefit to slow walking prospects. But Stowers is really different than Adley and Grayson. Maybe they have Stowers working on something specific at AAA? The Orioles promotion behavior has been hard to predict.  

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RarityFlaherty Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

RarityFlaherty

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Does it tho?

If the O's are unlikely to want him at that rate in his final year of team control what are the odds another team is going to trade more for that year?

Odds are against it.

You don’t have to wait until the final year of control to trade him though. Wouldn’t he be worth more with 2 years of control left vs 1 year? You guys are probably right that it may not amount to anything, but I think maximizing value is how we are going to stay competitive. 

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RarityFlaherty Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

RarityFlaherty

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3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

How valuable is say a 30 year old Stowers going to be in a trade?

We don’t have to wait that long to trade him. Keeping that year of control would make him more valuable if we tried to trade him next year or the year after. 
 

You do make a good point of preparing him for next year though. I wonder, how much value the coaching staff sees in that? I’m sure that would have to be weighed against the extra year of control, in terms of value. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a valuable tool for a few players.  Most of the time, it’s not valuable.  Stowers isn’t a guy you manipulate.  Are you really waiting until next May or so to call him up?

I don’t advocate manipulating Stowers’ service time.   However, the fact that the extra year does not turn out to be valuable most of the time isn’t really relevant, because in those cases where it does turn out to be valuable, it can be extremely valuable.   And a guy like Stowers could be one of those cases.  

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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15 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Why wouldn’t you want to manipulate all players? Isn’t that the best way to get the maximum value from them? An extra year of control either keeps them around longer or gives them more value if traded. 

Because there are things that are more important, like winning games.  This strategy is fine for certain players in certain team situations.  The Os are no longer in a situation where you should be doing that.

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RarityFlaherty Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

RarityFlaherty

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Because there are things that are more important, like winning games.  This strategy is fine for certain players in certain team situations.  The Os are no longer in a situation where you should be doing that.

Is winning this year more important though? I think I’d agree with you on this next year, but I don’t think the team is ready to actually compete yet. We just don’t have the starting pitching to compete with the best teams in the playoffs. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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15 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

You don’t have to wait until the final year of control to trade him though. Wouldn’t he be worth more with 2 years of control left vs 1 year? You guys are probably right that it may not amount to anything, but I think maximizing value is how we are going to stay competitive. 

I don't think fringe cases like this will make a difference one way or another.

I think you get and stay competitive mostly through drafting and international players supplemented by free agents. 

The impact on the team from theoretically trading a Stowers with two years of service time instead of one is at best marginal.

I think the advantage to be gained by the players getting ML experience in a non-competitive season far outweighs it.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Is winning this year more important though? I think I’d agree with you on this next year, but I don’t think the team is ready to actually compete yet. We just don’t have the starting pitching to compete with the best teams in the playoffs. 

Im Not talking about winning in 2022.  I’m talking about 2023 and in your scenario, these guys aren’t up until late April/early May next year..which means they then have to get their feet wet before they start getting comfortable, if they ever do.  That’s not a recipe for winning in 2023.
 

If you bring up Stowers this year and he strikes out 40% of the time and struggles with his game, you perhaps know you don’t move Santander or you add an OFer.  But you don’t know that if you don’t play him.

You have to see what these guys can do and get them experience to get them ready to be on a winner in 2023, not to mention give you options this offseason.

 

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

Posted
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21 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Seems to be a lot of angst over picking up a reserve outfielder for cash considerations.  Not worth worrying about, imo.

Again, it's not about what we gave up, it's about who he takes playing time/roster spots away from. 

There was a vision with this year's team: filter in the prospects as the year goes along. Phillips actively hinders that vision by blocking Stowers, and potentially limiting playing time for Vavra, Diaz, and McKenna, who are all much, much more deserving of playing time than Phillips on a rebuilding team. 

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justD Hangout Grand Counsel

justD

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25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im Not talking about winning in 2022.  I’m talking about 2023 ... That’s not a recipe for winning in 2023.

 

I'm so jaded now about when Elias ever thinks we'll be ready to start winning.  After what happened this past off-season and what's happened throughout the year with guys being brought up (or not) and what happened at this trade deadline even after becoming a .500+ team, I will be pleasantly surprised if they'll be trying to win in 2023, and I seriously doubt they will be. 

Sorry for the pessimism this morning. Confusion reigns. 

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