Do you believe the O's will call up Henderson this season?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Even through the lens of hind site is always 20/20.  You make tons of hay arguing against whatever the team does.  No one blames you as the team has been run pretty terribly as this weekends 30 year celebration unfortunately highlights.

But literally no one...makes the argument that you do above.  And even if anyone here does....Ellias isn't and that is all that really matters.  

For you, one of two things is going on presently.  Either the Orioles are going through arguably one of the single luckiest longshot seasons in the history of baseball.  Or you are wrong that ME and his team are not trying to win.

Either way, it seems that you continue to stick to the idea that current decisions are made because the team is not trying to win....or that decisions are made specifically due to organizational rankings.

Regarding Adley, he could have come up in April last year....after an entire season was missed due to covid.  He may have performed as he has this year...he could have performed better...and of course he may have performed worse.  All indications are that he would have been on the opening day roster this year if healthy.  He got here when he got here... the first real piece acquired by ME.  Are we really going to bash Elias for putting Adley in position to win a ROY?  This isn't a Dean Smith holding Michael Jordan under 20 a game thing.

 

Not all.

For instance he wasn't on the 40 man and Elias at no point definitively stated that he would be.

I think there is a pretty fair chance that Elias would have continued to game his clock.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Even through the lens of hind site is always 20/20.  You make tons of hay arguing against whatever the team does.  No one blames you as the team has been run pretty terribly as this weekends 30 year celebration unfortunately highlights.

But literally no one...makes the argument that you do above.  And even if anyone here does....Ellias isn't and that is all that really matters.  

For you, one of two things is going on presently.  Either the Orioles are going through arguably one of the single luckiest longshot seasons in the history of baseball.  Or you are wrong that ME and his team are not trying to win.

Either way, it seems that you continue to stick to the idea that current decisions are made because the team is not trying to win....or that decisions are made specifically due to organizational rankings.

Regarding Adley, he could have come up in April last year....after an entire season was missed due to covid.  He may have performed as he has this year...he could have performed better...and of course he may have performed worse.  All indications are that he would have been on the opening day roster this year if healthy.  He got here when he got here... the first real piece acquired by ME.  Are we really going to bash Elias for putting Adley in position to win a ROY?  This isn't a Dean Smith holding Michael Jordan under 20 a game thing.

 

The issue with Adley is that the team should have entered this season with a better team to win.  I wanted him to last year in preparation for that

Now? They are winning but where could they be if they did more?  Where could they be if Adley was an 850+ OPs guy this year, which maybe he would have been if he got that early adjustment period out last year?  Elias has all but admitted that he didn’t expect this team to be much.  He didn’t build this team to win and literally no one here actually believes he did unless you were some blind homer who says that every year.

And I’m sorry but if you think wining right now is their top priority, after trading the guys they did, keeping Odor on the team, blocking Stowers with Phillips, etc…I don’t know what to tell you.  
 

And btw, the overall blame is on Angelos, not Elias.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

In general, Elias is going to disappoint anyone who believes he should make sacrifices for the future to maximize the current success.  It is a mistake to see decisions like that as a negative.  DD said on day one the Orioles were going to win and win now.  Elias has said he is building a consistent contender.

Many want Henderson, Stowers, Hall, Grayson to come up to help now.

At my most egg-headed, I get the viewpoint all these Wins this year profile as somewhat of an irritant to expectations.

But on Gunnar and maybe some of the others ~125 at-bats, it is more I want them to come up and get their struggles out of the way right now because 2023 expectations are different.

MLB pitching is the sternest and only acid test of its kind, and the only way out is through.    There is a strategic deployment choice coming of September 2022 vs. April-May 2023, and do you want the Adley Month1 type stuff happening to lesser hitters now or then?      Whether we are 12-8 or 6-14 in the next 20 games doesn't really change that for me one way or the other.

[spleen1015]

Elias has his plan. I think it is that simple. There's reasons why we're not seeing Stowers, Gunnar, etc in the majors. I like that Elias has a plan and he's sticking to it because seeing where we are today versus 4 years ago is all his doing and we're looking pretty good for the future.

I kind of like that he's not willing to forsake the future because we're unexpectedly in the hunt for a WC this year. That to me is leadership we haven't seen since when?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The issue with Adley is that the team should have entered this season with a better team to win.  I wanted him to last year in preparation for that

Now? They are winning but where could they be if they did more?  Where could they be if Adley was an 850+ OPs guy this year, which maybe he would have been if he got that early adjustment period out last year?  Elias has all but admitted that he didn’t expect this team to be much.  He didn’t build this team to win and literally no one here actually believes he did unless you were some blind homer who says that every year.

And I’m sorry but if you think wining right now is their top priority, after trading the guys they did, keeping Odor on the team, blocking Stowers with Phillips, etc…I don’t know what to tell you.  
 

And btw, the overall blame is on Angelos, not Elias.

ElIAs hAS TotAL cONtRoL.

[DrungoHazewood]

Baseball America released their updated top 100 prospects list today and Henderson is #1 overall. How many organizations have ever graduated the #1 overall prospect and a couple months later had someone else move into the #1 overall prospect slot?

This is like calling up Manny in 2012, and in September another Oriole was the best prospect in baseball.  The 1982-2011 Orioles would go 10 years between prospects of this caliber. Even that's being generous.  The only guys close to that level in the 30 years after Cal were Mussina, Markakis, and Manny.  Cowser might actually be on the Markakis level, so you could argue the 2023 Orioles might have three young talents as good as anyone they developed from the 80s through the 2000s.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

At my most egg-headed, I get the viewpoint all these Wins this year profile as somewhat of an irritant to expectations.

But on Gunnar and maybe some of the others ~125 at-bats, it is more I want them to come up and get their struggles out of the way right now because 2023 expectations are different.

MLB pitching is the sternest and only acid test of its kind, and the only way out is through.    There is a strategic deployment choice coming of September 2022 vs. April-May 2023, and do you want the Adley Month1 type stuff happening to lesser hitters now or then?      Whether we are 12-8 or 6-14 in the next 20 games doesn't really change that for me one way or the other.

Of course.  This is a simple point yet it seems so difficult for many.

Its mind boggling that we have a group of fans here who, at least I would think, are tired of losing and want to win yet they are all fine with the team fielding an inferior product for the first 15-25 games of 2023.

It makes no sense.  The fans have become so obsessed with farm system rankings that they forgot the purpose of the sport is to win.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Baseball America released their updated top 100 prospects list today and Henderson is #1 overall. How many organizations have ever graduated the #1 overall prospect and a couple months later had someone else move into the #1 overall prospect slot?

This is like calling up Manny in 2012, and in September another Oriole was the best prospect in baseball.  The 1982-2011 Orioles would go 10 years between prospects of this caliber. Even that's being generous.  The only guys close to that level in the 30 years after Cal were Mussina, Markakis, and Manny.  Cowser might actually be on the Markakis level, so you could argue the 2023 Orioles might have three young talents as good as anyone they developed from the 80s through the 2000s.

The rise of Henderson is incredible and yes, this has to be a first or a very rare occurrence at least.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course.  This is a simple point yet it seems so difficult for many.

Its mind boggling that we have a group of fans here who, at least I would think, are tired of losing and want to win yet they are all fine with the team fielding an inferior product for the first 15-25 games of 2023.

It makes no sense.  The fans have become so obsessed with farm system rankings that they forgot the purpose of the sport is to win.  

The system is set up so that teams can capture extra value by leaving players in the minors some additional amount of time.  It is not always intuitively obvious and correct that the path to take is to ignore that extra value to try to win a little more right now.  A month of an MVP-level performance, which is rarely what a rookie provides, is worth perhaps a single WAR.  But delaying that debut might mean an entire extra year of a high quality player, either on the Orioles or as trade value.

It's at least worth the discussion and analysis to trade off a win or two now for the possibility of more wins down the road. I wish and hope that future CBAs eliminate service time as a basis of value, but that's not today's reality.

Personally I'd try to offer a number of these players contracts to buy out arb and early free agency years and call up many of them now.  But I don't know what the Orioles are doing in the background. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The system is set up so that teams can capture extra value by leaving players in the minors some additional amount of time.  It is not always intuitively obvious and correct that the path to take is to ignore that extra value to try to win a little more right now.  A month of an MVP-level performance, which is rarely what a rookie provides, is worth perhaps a single WAR.  But delaying that debut might mean an entire extra year of a high quality player, either on the Orioles or as trade value.

It's at least worth the discussion and analysis to trade off a win or two now for the possibility of more wins down the road. I wish and hope that future CBAs eliminate service time as a basis of value, but that's not today's reality.

Personally I'd try to offer a number of these players contracts to buy out arb and early free agency years and call up many of them now.  But I don't know what the Orioles are doing in the background. 

I get that getting the extra year is valuable.  The only player we are discussing that I feel there is real value in it is Henderson. I am not worried about the extra year for Stowers and Hall, especially since I feel they should have been up earlier and they have already gained that extra year in this season.

But winning matters more.  Yes, this year is part of the equation but 2023 is more important. Having these guys ready to go and on the roster OD should be a priority.  Gaining an extra year, which may not happen anyway, shouldn’t take priority.

As you said, you can sign players to extensions.  There are ways around it.

 

[foxfield]

28 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

At my most egg-headed, I get the viewpoint all these Wins this year profile as somewhat of an irritant to expectations.

But on Gunnar and maybe some of the others ~125 at-bats, it is more I want them to come up and get their struggles out of the way right now because 2023 expectations are different.

MLB pitching is the sternest and only acid test of its kind, and the only way out is through.    There is a strategic deployment choice coming of September 2022 vs. April-May 2023, and do you want the Adley Month1 type stuff happening to lesser hitters now or then?      Whether we are 12-8 or 6-14 in the next 20 games doesn't really change that for me one way or the other.

I am on board with this.  

[7Mo]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As you said, you can sign players to extensions.  There are ways around it.

 

Hypothetically, IF the O's were trying to sign Henderson to an extension, would it become more costly if he's called up in 2 weeks? 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Hypothetically, IF the O's were trying to sign Henderson to an extension, would it become more costly if he's called up in 2 weeks? 

I don’t think so.  Calling him up now or OD of next year, changes nothing.

If you wait until you gain the extra year, I still don’t know if it’s more expensive unless you have to pay a “you screwed me over” tax.

 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think so.  Calling him up now or OD of next year, changes nothing.

If you wait until you gain the extra year, I still don’t know if it’s more expensive unless you have to pay a “you screwed me over” tax.

 

I feel like anything other than taking advantage of service rules would cost. 

To me he's such a special talent that you bring him up early anyway but it seems clear that would cost the O's money whether you're able to sign him to an extension or not. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think so.  Calling him up now or OD of next year, changes nothing.

If you wait until you gain the extra year, I still don’t know if it’s more expensive unless you have to pay a “you screwed me over” tax.

 

Should have signed him to a ten year deal last year.