Projected FA Salaries

[OriolesMagic83]

Rodon, Perez and Bassit would be my choices.  No way Snydergaard has to settle for a 1 year contract.  He got $21 million coming back from over 1 year layoff.  The one thing I've learned about good pitching is it's always more e pensive than predicted.

[OriolesMagic83]

16 hours ago, waroriole said:

I’m not a huge fan of that DeGrom contract. The human arm wasn’t made to throw 100 MPH 100 times per game. There’s a reason he’s hardly pitched the last 3 years. 

The Mets can afford a starter who didn't pitch for over a year at $35 million or wharever he got paid, but the O's can't.

[oriole]

Hmmm I’ll take one Syndergaard and one Clevinger off that list please

Edited August 10, 2022 by oriole

[oh-wee-ohs]

30 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The Mets can afford a starter who didn't pitch for over a year at $35 million or wharever he got paid, but the O's can't.

I think we can afford a high dollar SP for two or three years while our payroll remains low. But you gotta get em on a short term deal. And you gotta make sure you're going to be going deep into the playoffs in the years he's here or else what's the point?

The dream for me would be Shohei for 3-4 years at 50 per. If there's any player in baseball that can singlehandedly increase revenue for a team, it's him. I'm sure plenty of owners feel the same about the revenue bump he'd provide so 3/150 or 4/200 is probably a low ball offer.

[owknows]

Next year I'd like to see something like... Grod, Means, Hall, Wells, Kremer, Lyles, Watkins

[Tryptamine]

It's Koudai Senga btw, not Sengal, but I assume that was an auto correct. There is no L in the Japanese language. I think 4/56 might be a bit light. He's not the prospect or age that Ohtani was when he came over, but he has absolutely dominated the NPB and has the velocity to play in MLB. 

[RZNJ]

15 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd be all over Clevinger and Perez.

This looks like Perez best year by far. Pass.

[clapdiddy]

I'll take Clevinger.   I'd even go higher $ on a one-year deal.

[jamalshw]

I'm curious how Senga's stuff fits into the Sig and Elias's formulas. We may be in on him. 

I would LOVE to get Verlander despite the age and having already thrown 130 innings without having any last year, he's dominating. It would be a big AAV, but with a 2 year commitment, it doesn't tie up the franchise for half a decade or more. 

That said, I realize that's not going to happen. I could see the Orioles doing Bassitt or Martin or someone of that ilk. I'd love to grab 2 guys. Put them at the top with Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells and whoever wins the job from Hall, Kremer, etc. and see what happens. If anyone falters or gets injured there's depth and some added depth/upside with Means coming back later in the year. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd pass on Syndergaard, unless it was a one year deal.  He hasn't been healthy since 2019 and hasn't had a really outstanding season since 2018.  

I'd be fine with Clevinger, too.  I'm really waiting for @Sports Guyto show up and tell me how I should feel, though.  

[nc_stats_nerd]

23 hours ago, ManciniFan said:

Good conversation starter for all the experts on this board that always get along in peaceful harmony

FA Pitcher Contract Proj....

Verlander 2 Yrs $72M
deGrom 3 Yrs $120M
Rodón 4 Yrs $96M
Edwin Díaz 6 Yrs $105M
Martín Pérez 2 Yrs $40M
Kershaw 1 Yr $18M
Syndergaard 1 Yr $15M
Koudai Sengal 4 Yrs $56M
Tyler Anderson (Qualifying Offer)
Chris Bassitt 2 Yrs $36M
Clevinger 1 Yr $14M

 

https://twitter.com/hotstoveintel/status/1557112394467483657?s=21&t=U8uOimgIDiI7nZWBok70MQ

 

 

Seems like a good time to jump into the board. I'm a data scientist that has been dabbling in MLB analytics for a while. Here's a summary of these contracts and how they line up with model projections.

Note: This is likely underselling the injury impacts for deGrom / Kershaw / Syndergaard. These projections assume 32 starts, so if you think a guys is good for less than that, adjust accordingly.

Given these projections, I wouldn't mind at all taking the deals for Rodon / Bassitt / Kershaw, though if the latter happened I'd be absolutely shocked. Really don't like Perez: underlying numbers aren't great. Model also doesn't see Verlander holding up much longer against age, but he's beaten those curves before so...

Justin Verlander [Term: 2 Years, Cost: $72 Million, Proj. Value: $54 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP15, 183 IP, 3.83 FIP, 4.1 WAR, $31.7 Million Value]
• 2024 Projections [SP37, 170 IP, 4.05 FIP, 3.0 WAR, $22.0 Million Value]

Jacob deGrom [Term: 3 Years, Cost: $120 Million, Proj. Value: $119 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP1, 162 IP, 3.28 FIP, 6.1 WAR, $52.1 Million Value]
• 2024 Projections [SP8, 152 IP, 3.50 FIP, 4.8 WAR, $38.5 Million Value]
• 2025 Projections [SP20, 142 IP, 3.71 FIP, 3.7 WAR, $28.5 Million Value]

Carlos Rodon [Term: 4 Years, Cost: $96 Million, Proj. Value: $94 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP15, 165 IP, 3.70 FIP, 4.1 WAR, $31.6 Million Value]
• 2024 Projections [SP27, 155 IP, 3.81 FIP, 3.4 WAR, $25.5 Million Value]
• 2025 Projections [SP44, 145 IP, 3.92 FIP, 2.8 WAR, $20.5 Million Value]
• 2026 Projections [SP65, 136 IP, 4.03 FIP, 2.3 WAR, $16.5 Million Value]

Chris Bassitt [Term: 2 Years, Cost: $36 Million, Proj. Value: $37 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP42, 173 IP, 4.10 FIP, 2.9 WAR, $20.9 Million Value]
• 2024 Projections [SP67, 161 IP, 4.22 FIP, 2.3 WAR, $16.2 Million Value]

Martin Perez [Term: 2 Years, Cost: $40 Million, Proj. Value: $19 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP108, 162 IP, 4.37 FIP, 1.6 WAR, $11.0 Million Value]
• 2024 Projections [SP129, 151 IP, 4.43 FIP, 1.4 WAR, $8.3 Million Value]

Clayton Kershaw [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $18 Million, Proj. Value: $30 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP18, 161 IP, 3.71 FIP, 3.9 WAR, $29.8 Million Value]

Noah Syndergaard [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $15 Million, Proj. Value: $15 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP73 154 IP, 3.99 FIP, 2.2 WAR, $15.1 Million Value]

Tyler Anderson [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $18 Million, Proj. Value: $13 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP86 163 IP, 4.34 FIP, 1.9 WAR, $13.3 Million Value]

Mike Clevinger [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $14 Million, Proj. Value: $13 million]

• 2023 Projections [SP87 136 IP, 4.18 FIP, 1.9 WAR, $13.2 Million Value]

Edited August 10, 2022 by nc_stats_nerd

[nc_stats_nerd]

And for fun...

Signing Bassitt/Rodon to 3/4 year deals would give us 5 projected top 100-ish starters for the next three years.

2023:

• Rodon (#15)
• Bassitt (#41)
• Rodriguez (#64)
• Means (#68)
• Hall (#80)

2024:

• Rodon (#26)
• Rodriguez (#50)
• Bassitt (#66)
• Hall (#79)
• Means (#85)

2024:

• Rodriguez (#40)
• Rodon (#43)
• Hall (#79)
• Bassitt (#94)
• Means (#106)

Even after those guys, I have Bradish / Rom / Wells sitting in #4/#5 starter territory for the next few years, with Povich joining that group in 2026.

The model is a bit lower on GrayRod then I am personally, but there are just so many pitching prospects that flame out. That's still the best projection I've seen for a SP with 0 MLB innings.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

49 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd pass on Syndergaard, unless it was a one year deal.  He hasn't been healthy since 2019 and hasn't had a really outstanding season since 2018.  

I'd be fine with Clevinger, too.  

 

Clevinger has only thrown ~230 innings since the start of the 2019 season so he hasn't exactly been the picture of good health either.

[TheWall]

21 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Not a fan of paying any pitcher $30 or $40 million a year. That kind of money would be better spent on long term extensions for Henderson, Rutschman, and the like. We should be able to deal a handful of our expendable hot prospects for cheaper arms, rather than being high bidder on guys on the down side of thirty. 

Even if we extend Henderson and Rutschman - our payroll will remain absurdly low. There's no reason we can't bid on high priced pitchers on short term deals. They'll be off the books before any of the core need to be paid. 

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, oh-wee-ohs said:

The dream for me would be Shohei for 3-4 years at 50 per. If there's any player in baseball that can singlehandedly increase revenue for a team, it's him. I'm sure plenty of owners feel the same about the revenue bump he'd provide so 3/150 or 4/200 is probably a low ball offer.

He doesn't have his FA yet, but I think that's a feature not a bug for a market like Baltimore getting a player like that.

The way the team is playing now deserves presence and appreciation, but if the Angels this offseason come to the same conclusion about him the Nats did with Soto, it looks to me like these Orioles bidding could make sense.   Ohtani of course would be 1.0 seasons compared to the 2.33 with Soto, including the third bite at the October apple.

I suppose Jorge Mateo has played well enough to shift some daydream magic beans from Correa to Ohtani.