Cubs trade DeRosa to Indians; Does this mean Pie for Olson back on??

[BillySmith]

Of course it looked like a good move when it was made. No one is calling Maine the second coming of Maddux. Just look at their numbers and tell me who won the trade:

Benson:

2006 - 11-12 4.82 ERA

2007 - Surgery

Maine:

2006 - 6-5 3.60

2007 - 15-10 3.91

2008 - 10-8 4.18

The Mets killed us on that deal.

Speaking of this trade, Jim Duquette was talking about it yesterday on XM. He said he wouldn't have known Maine if he had walked into his office before making this trade. Had never seen him pitch. Based the trade on reports from the O's organization, knew a team had rejected a Maine for middle reliever trade, and thought he was nothing more than a 5 or long relief guy. I hope Andy McPhail watches our guys before trading them. Thought it was a strange admission by Duquette, but I think he's a goofball anyway. Maybe it's his radio persona, but that guy doesn't seem like GM material in any sense of the word.

[Fairfax Bird]

I highly doubt that. His stats would have been a full run higher, at least. His home park would have been one of the top 5 offensive parks in all of baseball, that is 15 or so starts where a mild fly ball is a HR.

We can hate on this trade in hindsight, but lets go back to 2004. Maine had great stats in the low minors, got to AAA and stumbled a bit, injuries or what have you. Then he goes back to AAA in 2005 and gets knocked around some more. When he comes up for his 10 game cup of coffee he puts up a 6.30 ERA and his BB/K ratio goes from lifetime 3:1 to about 1:1 in the majors. That should tell you that he wasn't comfortable letting players put the ball in play in CY and was trying to work outside the zone too much (doesn't work for rookies who veterans will make throw the ball into the zone).

We could very well have the same situation with Olson, but then the argument is made, if he is never going to be much here, is it really that bad to deal him somewhere else and become decent? Would you rather have a guy stuck in AAA on your team, or a #3 starter on another? Answer: depends on the talent you get back for him

Or it could tell you that it was his first 10 starts in the majors and was nervous.

I understand that moving from NL to AL is difficult, but you would have to add 1.17 to his ERA for their stats to match. You are not giving Maine the credit he deserves.

[allstar1579]

Or it could tell you that it was his first 10 starts in the majors and was nervous.

I understand that moving from NL to AL is difficult, but you would have to add 1.17 to his ERA for their stats to match. You are not giving Maine the credit he deserves.

No, I've scouted Maine for more than 20 starts, and he is a smart pitcher, but not overwhelming. When you see a strikeout pitcher without a killer pitch (i.e. Johan's changeup, Lowe's sinker) and without an overwhelming fastball what does it tell you? He's spotting his pitches, and setting them up well. That is how he makes his bread and butter, by knowing what to throw and where. Whether he was nervous or not, he wasn't getting the job done, and it is pretty common for guys to do better in their first 10 starts than further starts due to familiarity amongst other things, so I don't like the nervous excuse.

Benson himself jumped up 0.75 ERA points going from the Mets to the O's. Josh Beckett went up 1.70 ERA points.

Either way, it's not hard to see a 1+ ERA change when changing leagues. Maine is really not THAT great, sure he is head and shoulders better than most of what we have, but at the time it would have been like trading Hernandez now, and most people here were ready to throw him in on any trade imaginable.

[bigbird]

You're trying to justify the Benson and Bautista trades, while at the same time bashing AM.

Bigbird I really, really agree with alot of what you say about AM but you are going overboard here and are clearly and obviously showing a bias both for Duq and against AM.

Would love to see your reaction if we traded Tillman for Aaron Heilman, and then traded Ray and Erbe for Jason Jennings.

Something tells me those deals wouldn't be as good as the 2 deals you're trying to justify in this thread. Wonder why

Didn't Beattie make the Bautista trade??? Tillman is probably 10 x the prospect Bautusta was. I also think Erbe and Ray are a lot better than Maine and Juilo.

[BillySmith]

Didn't Beattie make the Bautista trade??? Tillman is probably 10 x the prospect Bautusta was. I also think Erbe and Ray are a lot better than Maine and Juilo.

If the pitching is that good, where does that leave you on 2010? Are we lean and mean in your eyes, or do we suck?

[bigbird]

If the pitching is that good, where does that leave you on 2010? Are we lean and mean in your eyes, or do we suck?

I think you have three guys in the minors who we'll be able to count on (Arrieta, Tillman and Matsuz). Besides that all others are hit or miss which is why I think we should look to trade some young pitching for major league ready young players. We could then come back and grab another blue chip pitching prospect in the draft.

[bigbird]

Yeah Beattie did make the trade, but you were defending it in a different thread.

Again, Bautista was highly thought of as a prospect. You trade off of value and perception if you are trading prospects, not what you think a prospect is going to do.

Agree about the Benson trade...it wasn't horrible, and the Mets certainly did get a bit lucky with Maine. But it's not the type of trade we should have been making both then and now, and I really don't see you defending the move if AM made a similar trade.

This is where we disagree. The Marlins didn't think he was that valuable when they traded him to us (with another pitcher) for Conine. All the reports I read stated his makeup to become a quality major league pitcher was a major question.

If you're going to hold a GM (no matter who it is) accountable for signing a Baez type player you also have to give him a little credit on dealing a prospect who never amounted to nothing.

[BillySmith]

I think you have three guys in the minors who we'll be able to count on (Arrieta, Tillman and Matsuz). Besides that all others are hit or miss which is why I think we should look to trade some young pitching for major league ready young players. We could then come back and grab another blue chip pitching prospect in the draft.

We're in the same boat. Is pitching your main concern?

[Bradysburns]

I'm sorry but BB is right - there's deliberate and there's something called "opportunity cost" - the cost of NOT doing something. At this point, I think MacPhail's overplaying his hand with Roberts and the clock is ticking. It's like, he's either giving away players (Bradford and Hernandez) or he's being overcautious and not doing anything.

There's not much fluidity or boldness to his actions, like you see with a Billy Beane. He seems scared. And frankly, I can't understand what he's thinking AT ALL by signing Hendrickson. Like... that's just a random, senseless waste of $1.5 million!

Pretty much any of our guys in the minors would be more interesting to watch than this dude, unless he's going into the 'pen, which I think is a real possibility.

[Singleton]

I think you have three guys in the minors who we'll be able to count on (Arrieta, Tillman and Matsuz). Besides that all others are hit or miss which is why I think we should look to trade some young pitching for major league ready young players. We could then come back and grab another blue chip pitching prospect in the draft.

The problem here is that every GM agrees with you and so what major league ready young player would you be able to get for a hit or miss player? The answer, of course, is none. D. Hernandez, H. Penn, etc. are not going to bring back a top young player. Expectations need to be realistic.

Also, doesn't this post essentially answer much of your previous post in which you wonder out loud who will be in our starting rotation in 2010: Guthrie, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz and one from the hit or miss kids. Perhaps not all ready for April 2010 but should be close enough.

[Singleton]

I'm sorry but BB is right - there's deliberate and there's something called "opportunity cost" - the cost of NOT doing something. At this point, I think MacPhail's overplaying his hand with Roberts and the clock is ticking. It's like, he's either giving away players (Bradford and Hernandez) or he's being overcautious and not doing anything.

There's not much fluidity or boldness to his actions, like you see with a Billy Beane. He seems scared. And frankly, I can't understand what he's thinking AT ALL by signing Hendrickson. Like... that's just a random, senseless waste of $1.5 million!

Pretty much any of our guys in the minors would be more interesting to watch than this dude, unless he's going into the 'pen, which I think is a real possibility.

I'd say it is pretty bold to trade your best starter (Bedard), one of your two best hitters (Tejada) and a third major player (Ramon).

The assumption continues that AM was offered a package of high upside players for Roberts and I'm not aware of such an offer.

[allstar1579]

I'm sorry but BB is right - there's deliberate and there's something called "opportunity cost" - the cost of NOT doing something. At this point, I think MacPhail's overplaying his hand with Roberts and the clock is ticking. It's like, he's either giving away players (Bradford and Hernandez) or he's being overcautious and not doing anything.

There's not much fluidity or boldness to his actions, like you see with a Billy Beane. He seems scared. And frankly, I can't understand what he's thinking AT ALL by signing Hendrickson. Like... that's just a random, senseless waste of $1.5 million!

Pretty much any of our guys in the minors would be more interesting to watch than this dude, unless he's going into the 'pen, which I think is a real possibility.

Unless he is traded in the next couple weeks, we will be having the debate over whether trading Roberts NOW is better or worse, the truth is, there is no perfect time to trade him. Last year, say we get bowled over with an offer of Pie, Marshall and Colvin. Then Colvin has seemed to regress a bit, Pie has lost a lot of his luster, and Marshall had a so-so season, people would be distraught and calling it a salary dump. Now say after knowing what we know from this past year, would we accept that package? Probably not, and while it isn't awful, we could do better.

Now this year, there are different teams in search of 2B upgrades and leadoff options. The Phils could choose midseason to bring Utley back at 1B and trade Howard. The Dodgers could decide DeWitt is more of a UTIL guy and finally deal some young talent. Some contender could lose a 2B and need a one year replacement or lose a year of competition. KC could decide this is the year to compete and make a move.

Hudson needs to sign first. Period. Cause no one is going to give up young talent when they could just go sign him instead and get similar production. From there we could see something happen, either someone decides a retaliation move needs to be made, or an injury or someone just loses a 2B job. But while there is still talent had on the FA market, I doubt you'll see anything move.

[Singleton]

This is where we disagree. The Marlins didn't think he was that valuable when they traded him to us (with another pitcher) for Conine. All the reports I read stated his makeup to become a quality major league pitcher was a major question.

If you're going to hold a GM (no matter who it is) accountable for signing a Baez type player you also have to give him a little credit on dealing a prospect who never amounted to nothing.

So you want our GM to deal minor league pitchers with perceived value for journeyman relievers? That's a good GM to you? Gosh I really wish we had that bold, fast moving GM back.

[allstar1579]

Why, we didn't get anything for him. What in the world did Grimsley do for us? And better yet, what was he suppose to do for us?

You're really not making sense with your Bautista argument. Even if you have a prospect you don't think will amount to much, you 100% of the time should hold onto him instead of dealing him for an old, spare part on a bad team.

Bautista wasn't very good honestly. I watched him a lot early that season, and he was by FAR the most hittable out of the stable of guys we had at the time (Cabrera, Riley, Forystek, the infamous Paradis). If you are more hittable than Paradis, man....I'll just stop there. He got some rep because he was the little cousin of Pedro, and Pedro was the man at the time. He had one pitch, it was a fastball, and it was straight...very straight. His delivery was obvious and too easy to pick up the ball.

At the time we were in desperate need of MR help, and it was going to take a young starter to make it happen. As referenced a few posts ago, we also tried to trade Maine for a RP and were turned down (I don't know who it was, just heard some FO guys talking about it) so they got what they could with someone they didn't think had a chance to make it to the bigs as a SP. I know we all HATED the deal, because we felt like we stole Bautista from FL in the Conine deal and we didn't expect to get that much, but he really wasn't that good, I promise.

That being said, if you have talent you don't think will amount to much, you 100% deal him if you get something you feel you need from another team, not hold on to them and hope. You have to trust your scouting department. The odds are much better that a guy with a proven ML record will rebound and do well than a guy from the minors will develop and pan out. Now where I totally agree with you is that it was because of our scouting department at that time is the reason we made some stupid moves and decisions, now that JJ is in charge I have much better faith, we just need to wait and see some of those later round diamonds in the rough start to emerge like they so often do for other teams.

[El Gordo]

Unless he is traded in the next couple weeks, we will be having the debate over whether trading Roberts NOW is better or worse, the truth is, there is no perfect time to trade him. Last year, say we get bowled over with an offer of Pie, Marshall and Colvin. Then Colvin has seemed to regress a bit, Pie has lost a lot of his luster, and Marshall had a so-so season, people would be distraught and calling it a salary dump. Now say after knowing what we know from this past year, would we accept that package? Probably not, and while it isn't awful, we could do better.

Now this year, there are different teams in search of 2B upgrades and leadoff options. The Phils could choose midseason to bring Utley back at 1B and trade Howard. The Dodgers could decide DeWitt is more of a UTIL guy and finally deal some young talent. Some contender could lose a 2B and need a one year replacement or lose a year of competition. KC could decide this is the year to compete and make a move.

Hudson needs to sign first. Period. Cause no one is going to give up young talent when they could just go sign him instead and get similar production. From there we could see something happen, either someone decides a retaliation move needs to be made, or an injury or someone just loses a 2B job. But while there is still talent had on the FA market, I doubt you'll see anything move.

Ding, ding, ding. Exactly.