MLB draft #1 pick odds

[backwardsk]

I have a math question for the board.  It shows that the team with the worst record has an 81% chance picking in the top 6 and 19% at 7.  I understand that they can’t pick lower than 7, so it’s 100-81.  But to pick seventh, six teams outside of the top six all need to land in the top six.  Assuming the next four teams, ALL make the top six, two of the following teams need to make it as well.  And their chances are: AZ 12.5%, CHC 9.9%, MN 8.2%, BOS 7%, CWS 5.7%, SF 4.3%, BAL 3.4%, and MIL 2.1%.  It seems to me that the odds of six teams outside of the top 6 ALL making it in the top 6 is way less than 19%.  Am I thinking about this incorrectly?  Help me out.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

I have a math question for the board.  It shows that the team with the worst record has an 81% chance picking in the top 6 and 19% at 7.  I understand that they can’t pick lower than 7, so it’s 100-81.  But to pick seventh, six teams outside of the top six all need to land in the top six.  Assuming the next four teams, ALL make the top six, two of the following teams need to make it as well.  And their chances are: AZ 12.5%, CHC 9.9%, MN 8.2%, BOS 7%, CWS 5.7%, SF 4.3%, BAL 3.4%, and MIL 2.1%.  It seems to me that the odds of six teams outside of the top 6 ALL making it in the top 6 is way less than 19%.  Am I thinking about this incorrectly?  Help me out.

Yes, I believe so.

It seems to me that only one team from outside the six teams with the worst records has to make the top six in the lottery for team with the worst record to not make it, provided the other 5 worst-record teams do make it in the lottery

You are right that it would be extremely low odds for all 6 teams with the worst records to lose out in the lottery, but that needn't happen for only the team with the worst record to lose out.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Number5

[jamesenoch]

We find out tonight at 08:00pm ET.

[cnmilton]

I have a question I don't know if anyone has an answer: is the lottery just for the 1st overall pick, or is for draft position for the entire draft? So team who wins lottery pick 1st in every round, or just the 1st round?  Also, does the bonus money allotment go along with the 1st pick as well?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, cnmilton said:

I have a question I don't know if anyone has an answer: is the lottery just for the 1st overall pick, or is for draft position for the entire draft? So team who wins lottery pick 1st in every round, or just the 1st round?  Also, does the bonus money allotment go along with the 1st pick as well?

The money is linked to the pick.

I think it's just for the first round but I've not heard anything confirming it.

[Just Regular]

A stack of big chunky envelopes was just handed to Raul Ibanez at a podium as they go to commercial before the countdown show.

What do we have....maybe 2% net chance of not coming out of Envelope 17, assuming they reveal backwards.

[Frobby]

So:

1.  Nats move down from 1 to 2.

2.  A’s move down from 2 to 6.

3.  Pirates move up from 3 to 1.  

4.  Reds move down from 4 to 7.

5.  Royals move down from 5 to 8.

6.  Tigers move up from 6 to 3.

7.  Rockies move down from 7 to 9.

8. Rangers move up from 8 to 4.

9.  Marlins move down from 9 to 10

10. Angels move down from 10 to 11.

11.  Diamondbacks move down from 11 to  12.

12.  Cubs move down from 12 to 13.

13. Twins move up from 13 to 5. 

Twins are the big winners here, with the A’s, Royals and Reds the big screwees.
  
 

[backwardsk]

20 hours ago, cnmilton said:

I have a question I don't know if anyone has an answer: is the lottery just for the 1st overall pick, or is for draft position for the entire draft? So team who wins lottery pick 1st in every round, or just the 1st round?  Also, does the bonus money allotment go along with the 1st pick as well?

It’s just for the first round.