Lyles, Voth, Gallagher and Garcia

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think we pick up the option on Lyles and still sign a FA pitcher. That would leave Voth out of the rotation but he will get opportunities. Rotation would be FA, Grayson, Lyles, Kremer, Bradish to start the year. I would assume Voth and Means get opportunities. 

I would keep Wells in the bullpen. I'd rather stretch him out if needed later in the season than assume he is going to be a starter and have him get injured or burned out by the end of the year. Wells, Baumann, and Zimmermann would be depth. 

 

 

Watkins has been better than Zimmermann.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Watkins has been better than Zimmermann.

More depth is good. I hope neither is in the rotation on opening day. If we were to trade one, I would be looking to see what can be gotten for Watkins since Zimmermann is lefty and has another option. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

More depth is good. I hope neither is in the rotation on opening day. If we were to trade one, I would be looking to see what can be gotten for Watkins since Zimmermann is lefty and has another option. 

Neither Watkins or Zimmermann have much / if any trade value.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

More depth is good. I hope neither is in the rotation on opening day. If we were to trade one, I would be looking to see what can be gotten for Watkins since Zimmermann is lefty and has another option. 

Nothing can be gotten for Watkins.  Some AAAA player from another team.  

[Just Regular]

If Elias and Lyles want each other, my guess is in the five days after the WS new terms are announced.

I hope Elias is hunting more upside for the 2023 rotation than locking in Lyles early would indicate to me.    The option I always felt was the Economic Analyst gaming some stuff.

I thought this comment in the MLBTR piece wildcard linked got it about right:

In 12 years Lyle has a cumulative -1.2 WAR and has made 35mil. No way on earth Baltimore picks up that option but he would likely be welcomed back for around 5mil.

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Neither Watkins or Zimmermann have much / if any trade value.

Understood, but the 40 man spot may become more valuable. I would not be expecting anything more than a PBTNL that doesn't take up a 40 man spot.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

More depth is good. 

I think this is a misconception. Depth, for the sake of depth, is not good. A pitching staff populated with good pitchers who get MLB hitters out is good. 

In 2022 the O's pitching staff was 9th in the AL in WAR at 11.9, 7th in xFIP (4.10), 12th in Ks/9 (7.62), tied for 13th (with BOS) in BA against (.253) and tied for 13th (with TOR) for LD% (20.4%). 

The pitching staff as a whole has to get better. Depth is useful if the depth is made up of good pitchers. If the depth is made up of mediocre pitchers then the depth is not good. It leads to losses. If this team is consistently giving innings next year to pitchers who are well below average in their ability to get MLB hitters out, it will not make the playoffs. 

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My point is that he is very unlikely to be worth $11M next year. Alot of his stats are treading in the wrong direction. 180 innings of Jordan Lyles in 2023 is not likely to be as valuable as it was in 2022 and you are paying $4M more for less production. As a team trying to get better, why spend that money and get less? Why not allocate that money to get better production?

If you told me that we were saving that 11M and that was the difference between signing or not signing Verlander I would agree.   I don't think that's the case but it's impossible to say.   If we are replacing Lyles with a slight upgrade (a 2 WAR type of pitcher) then we are probably talking about a multi year contract or trading players to get such a pitcher.   I'd rather slightly overpay Lyles for one year in that case.

Edited October 18, 2022 by RZNJ

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I think this is a misconception. Depth, for the sake of depth, is not good. A pitching staff populated with good pitchers who get MLB hitters out is good. 

In 2022 the O's pitching staff was 9th in the AL in WAR at 11.9, 7th in xFIP (4.10), 12th in Ks/9 (7.62), tied for 13th (with BOS) in BA against (.253) and tied for 13th (with TOR) for LD% (20.4%). 

The pitching staff as a whole has to get better. Depth is useful if the depth is made up of good pitchers. If the depth is made up of mediocre pitchers then the depth is not good. It leads to losses. If this team is consistently giving innings next year to pitchers who are well below average in their ability to get MLB hitters out, it will not make the playoffs. 

Yes, that is why the part of my post you left out said Watkins/Zimmerman should be stashed in AAA. Voth and Wells would be first options to move into the rotation. I'd also be open to trading either of these guys for any kind of return.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Understood, but the 40 man spot may become more valuable. I would not be expecting anything more than a PBTNL that doesn't take up a 40 man spot.

Yes, I think Zimmermann will lose his 40 man spot.  But Watkins just put up a  4.17 ERA in 20 starts.  He is not a reliever but as a starter he performed well and  is worth a 40 roster spot to be at AAA in waiting.

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Just Regular said:

If Elias and Lyles want each other, my guess is in the five days after the WS new terms are announced.

I hope Elias is hunting more upside for the 2023 rotation than locking in Lyles early would indicate to me.    The option I always felt was the Economic Analyst gaming some stuff.

I thought this comment in the MLBTR piece wildcard linked got it about right:

In 12 years Lyle has a cumulative -1.2 WAR and has made 35mil. No way on earth Baltimore picks up that option but he would likely be welcomed back for around 5mil.

An innings eating 5th starter in Mlb is a good job to have.

[vab]

From everything we heard and seen, Elias really values having a few veterans around who can mentor these youngsters which explains why they kept Odor and Chirinos around. Lyles falls into that category on the pitching side. Besides, they have virtually no payroll. I don't think picking up Lyles for 11M should have any effect on what they can do in trades or free agency. 

[eddie83]

I’ve convinced myself Voth should be in the rotation at the start of the season and GRod in the pen. Mass chaos will ensue on social media and on message boards I’m sure. 
 

If you are limiting his innings when do you want him available? Do you want him shut down or backed off of later in year or the opposite? Dylan Bundy 2016 is an example. Do you want 2012 Strasburg? I don’t. 
 

This years playoffs are exhibit A of this philosophy.  

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I’ve convinced myself Voth should be in the rotation at the start of the season and GRod in the pen. Mass chaos will ensue on social media and on message boards I’m sure. 
 

If you are limiting his innings when do you want him available? Do you want him shut down or backed off of later in year or the opposite? Dylan Bundy 2016 is an example. Do you want 2012 Strasburg? I don’t. 
 

This years playoffs are exhibit A of this philosophy.  

I will take Grayson in the 1st half and Means in the 2nd half for one spot in the rotation.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I will take Grayson in the 1st half and Means in the 2nd half for one spot in the rotation.

I would rather have Grayson down the stretch and hope with Means. 
 

Sure there have been years where middling staffs have won a WS, 2006 STL, 2015 KC. You need strikeouts in October. You want guys where it is hard to string hits together against them. 
 

You can take your chances with anyone but I want high upside come October. Especially with how much bigger our park plays in April and in general offense isn’t great in April i think that is the time of year to germs bye with less, not later on.