Phillies Teaching Us A Lesson

[UMDTerrapins]

The lesson to be learned is that unless you're one of the two teams that get byes, you better have a couple of aces in your rotation because you played 162 games to get to the playoffs, and then are two losses from elimination, in two consecutive series. If you don't have a couple of top starters, you're not built for the modern playoff format. Rodriguez has the potential to be one of those guys, but we need to make a splash this winter. Imagine we had snuck into the playoffs this year. Which two starters would you have pushed out in games 1 and 2? Yeah.........Elias has work to do. 

Edited October 24, 2022 by UMDTerrapins

[osfan83]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We also traded away Lopez and Mancini. And sure… people can point out their numbers, but point out the players that had to take on larger roles like Khreibel, or players that we had to play because we had no better options like Mountcastle and Hays. 
 

Which points out… that we should be shooting for the division title next year and not just a WC. But that’s where FA bucks come in, or mortgaging the farm. 

Well sure, we should always be aiming to win the division, but if we are on an 88 win pace in late July/Aug trailing the division leader by 8 games, we still have a legit shot at a WS.

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Well sure, we should always be aiming to win the division, but if we are on an 88 win pace in late July/Aug trailing the division leader by 8 games, we still have a legit shot at a WS.

when you trade people and ROI isnt what it should be.

Are you really serious about building a contender?

 

[Going Underground]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Phillies went 16-3 against the last place Nationals. We went 9-10 against last place BOS. Very simple difference. 
 

The unbalanced schedule will help us. 

Red Sox were 26-50 against the AL East. So perhaps it also helps them as well. Maybe it helps all the AL East teams,so the unbalanced schedule is just a wash for all the AL East teams 

[Just Regular]

12 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Red Sox were 26-50 against the AL East. So perhaps it also helps them as well. Maybe it helps all the AL East teams,so the unbalanced schedule is just a wash for all the AL East teams 

Just so long as the 4th place AL East team gains ground on the Mariners

My primary lesson from the '22 Phillies is if you are a Stars and Scrubs team, it is nice if the family minivan gets big enough to seat six comfortably.     Then the smaller sibling might get to go to Hershey Park too instead of going to Aunt Susie's house for the day.     If Year 1 of 12-team playoffs gives us a 6 seed champion, it'll invite lots of those think pieces on what Best Team means.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Phillies went 16-3 against the last place Nationals. We went 9-10 against last place BOS. Very simple difference. 
 

The unbalanced schedule will help us. 

The Nationals might have been the worst team in baseball.  The Sox could thump a little bit.  While they were last place, they weren't completely inept.  

I agree the unbalanced schedule will help us, but I really liked having more games against the division.  I want to see how we stack up against the rest of the teams in the best division in baseball rather than having to play j*** off games against the Pirates, Marlins, etc.  

[Redskins Rick]

I want to be good enough to thump on any team we play, and not looking to be good against the weaker ones.

 

[spiritof66]

27 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Red Sox were 26-50 against the AL East. So perhaps it also helps them as well. Maybe it helps all the AL East teams,so the unbalanced schedule is just a wash for all the AL East teams 

That's what I expect to happen: AL East (and NL West) teams will face slightly easier schedules. I have understood the statements that the balanced schedule will help the Orioles to mean that it should help them (and other AL East) teams compete for a WC spot against non-division winners in the AL Central and AL West, whose schedules will become a little more challenging.

 

 

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, osfan83 said:

Well sure, we should always be aiming to win the division, but if we are on an 88 win pace in late July/Aug trailing the division leader by 8 games, we still have a legit shot at a WS.

I agree with that. That's why I reacted so negatively (and still do) to Elias's decision at the trade deadline to trade Lopez. I could understand not trading a prospect or two for a veteran who might shore up one of the team's glaring weaknesses, and I was ambivalent about Mancini. But I think Elias made a mistake when he traded Lopez and then explained that his trade deadline decisions were based on his belief that the Orioles' weren't likely to get a WC spot. I felt, and still feel, as though the Orioles' improvement caught Elias by surprise -- it sure caught me by surprise, and despite the possibility of a WC run in 2022 he was unwilling to deviate the slightest bit (well, OK, he picked up Brett Phillips, and maybe that defines "the slightest bit") from his pre-determined master plan that there wouldn't be a push for the post-season this year. I think he should have tried to help the team, or at least not to hurt it, even if the master plan didn't call for that.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Hmmm, maybe we should hire a few smart people from their front office…

They are obviously missing Elias and Sig, it really seems to have slowed them down.

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, Pickles said:

I hear a lot of talk about making "big moves" to compete in "this division."  And how we're "really far away."  And need "massive talent upgrades."

I think all of those people would also agree that a WC can win the WS.  We have seen it often enough.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

The lesson to be learned is that unless you're one of the two teams that get byes, you better have a couple of aces in your rotation because you played 162 games to get to the playoffs, and then are two losses from elimination, in two consecutive series. If you don't have a couple of top starters, you're not built for the modern playoff format. Rodriguez has the potential to be one of those guys, but we need to make a splash this winter. Imagine we had snuck into the playoffs this year. Which two starters would you have pushed out in games 1 and 2? Yeah.........Elias has work to do. 

This!  Nola and Wheeler just posted a 6 bWAR and 5 bWAR season, respectively.  42.2 post-season innings while giving up 11 ER (6 in one bad start for Nola).  WC's can make a run in any number of ways, but I'd rather take my shots with a couple of stud pitchers!  

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

My primary lesson from the '22 Phillies is if you are a Stars and Scrubs team, it is nice if the family minivan gets big enough to seat six comfortably.     Then the smaller sibling might get to go to Hershey Park too instead of going to Aunt Susie's house for the day.     If Year 1 of 12-team playoffs gives us a 6 seed champion, it'll invite lots of those think pieces on what Best Team means.

The expanded playoffs make the Stars/Scrubs fantasy roster playable in a H2H format.  Roto doesn't matter as much over the long grind.  Just make the cut and match up well.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Phillies went 16-3 against the last place Nationals. We went 9-10 against last place BOS. Very simple difference. 
 

The unbalanced schedule will help us. 

Let’s not overstate things.  The AL East played .576 ball outside the division, .500 ball within it (obviously).   Each team will be playing 24 more games outside the division.  At .576 for those 24 games, the expectation is 13.86 wins, instead of the previously expected 12 wins.  So, the average AL East team will benefit about 2 extra wins with the new schedule.   That assumes that the AL East remains as strong in 2023 as it was in 2022, which was a very strong year for the division.   

AL Central teams played .446 ball outside the division, so their teams would lose 1.3 more games on average.  AL West teams played .481 ball outside the division and would lose an extra half-game on average.  

Don’t get me wrong, 2-3 wins could be the difference between getting a playoff spot or being on the outside looking in.  But it’s only going to do so in very close cases.   The records aren’t going to change by massive amounts.  

 

[Too Tall]

Lessons learned. Phillies - buy enough and get in and stuff can happen, particularly if you have the horses and get hot at the right time. Astros - build for the long haul and supplement particularly on the pitching side. Latter blueprint seems vaguely familiar. Anxious to see how our version plays out.

PS - If we sign Verlander that too will seem vaguely familiar. Not sure it will work twice though.

PPS - As an aside, rooting for a ring for Trey because I'm afraid his next contract may disappoint.

[foxfield]

5 hours ago, osfan83 said:

The Phillies won 4 more games than us over a 162 game season. 4 games! That's a couple of bad calls, a bad bounce, a bad weather game or two away from the same record. 

The lesson? Don't worry about being just a WC team. Build a team to get into the playoffs 7 out of every 10 years, then take a shot in these short series. The Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, are all better than the Phillies. But a hot streak might win them the title.

I agree that the Phillies are teaching a lesson that WC teams can excel in the playoffs.  I would not extrapolate that to mean the O's should have mortgaged the farm or not made the trades they did at the deadline because they might have been successful like the Phillies.  I mean sure...it could have happened. (and I don't think you necessarily meant that)

The Phillies were built to win a WS and were so disappointing that they fired their manager.  They played well enough to eek in and given the chance they have blown away their competitors and landed in the WS.  I think there is much more separating the Orioles and Phillies than 4 games.  
 

The lesson is that teams built to compete for a WS spend the regular season jockeying for position, but once the playoffs start, teams built to win it, can do so from any spot in the field...even if it means going on the road a lot....in order to get there.