A middle of the order bat from Japan?

[Jim'sKid26]

Orix Buffaloes May Post Masataka Yoshida For MLB Teams - MLB Trade Rumors

"Over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yoshida has become one of NPB’s top hitters, with a .327/.421/.539 slash line and 133 home runs in 3129 career plate appearances. "

He's a LH hitting outfielder. He'll have to be posted but he's an interesting alternative. He's only 30 years old.

[DrungoHazewood]

Very, very interesting player.  Depending on price I might make him a priority.  A few things:

• High average, .320+ multiple years, as high as .351
• The last few years has walked about twice as often as he struck out
• Mid-range power, 20-30 homers, 20-30 doubles a year
• Missed 20-25 games a year the last few years
• Only played 39 games in the field last year, so assuming he DH'd a lot

The NPB has been a very pitcher-centric league lately.  OPSes in the .650 range, 7.5 K/9, less than a homer/team/game.  

[Moose Milligan]

I'm assuming the plate discipline would translate. 

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm assuming the plate discipline would translate. 

He's not going to walk 80 times and strike out 40 in the majors.  But he might be close to even?  Like 60/60 in a full season?

This guy's NPB line is exactly what I want to see out of at least some stars in the majors.  .330 with 30 doubles, 20 homers, 70 walks, 35 strikeouts.  That's basically peak George Brett, and that guy has been extinct for many years.  Jose Altuve is probably closest today and he's more like .310 with 20 homers, 50 walks, 85 strikeouts.  Yoshida isn't going to do that, but maybe .290, 15 homers, 60 walks, 60 Ks? Is that too much to ask?

[Can_of_corn]

George Brett is very much alive.  You are probably thinking of Wade Boggs.

[sevastras]

I like the possibilities. Probably pencil him in at the 2 spot and not MOO but would be an interesting pickup and fit my narrative of expanding fan base to bring in more revenue. 
I would be very interested in how much revenue a signing like that would drive.  Lyles at $11mm doesn’t sell jerseys or tickets, but how much revenue would be made from someone who has a strong fan base signed here?  Too be clear, revenue made is more likely salary offset in almost all scenarios outside prearb superstars. 

[sportsfan8703]

Renato Nunez?

[ChipTait]

Maybe Adam Jones puts in a good word?

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's not going to walk 80 times and strike out 40 in the majors.  But he might be close to even?  Like 60/60 in a full season?

This guy's NPB line is exactly what I want to see out of at least some stars in the majors.  .330 with 30 doubles, 20 homers, 70 walks, 35 strikeouts.  That's basically peak George Brett, and that guy has been extinct for many years.  Jose Altuve is probably closest today and he's more like .310 with 20 homers, 50 walks, 85 strikeouts.  Yoshida isn't going to do that, but maybe .290, 15 homers, 60 walks, 60 Ks? Is that too much to ask?

A (rhymes with but not quite direct) comp in today's FA pool is Correa/Nimmo with a little conversion rate arbitrage risk baked in the price.  Except that BB rate is unreal in today's game.  I have to think he fits the Elias/Sig model.  

Seiya Suzuki signed for 5/$85m.  IIRC, there was no posting cost for him though.  Very similar numbers (except the BB/K ratio favors Yoshida).

[Jim'sKid26]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Seiya Suzuki signed for 5/$85m.  IIRC, there was no posting cost for him though.  Very similar numbers (except the BB/K ratio favors Yoshida).

Good comp but Suzuki was 2 years younger and a bit more power. He generated 2.0 fWAR in 111 games for the Cubs. Fangraphs had him valued at $16.1M for 2022.

Suzuki in NPB: .309/.402/.541; average 30 HR and 28 2B over the 6 years before coming to MLB.

Yoshida: .329/.421/.539; 21 HRs and 20 2Bs on average over the last 6 years. 

[OriolesMagic83]

High average/high OBP guy w/ 15-20+ HR.  Trade Hays and sign him.  Santander can be moved to 1b/DH/4th OF when Cowser is called up. 

[Can_of_corn]

Is Elias even allowed to engage in the posting process?

I hope that is something that has changed since Peter stepped down but I haven't heard one way or the other.

[btdart20]

15 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Good comp but Suzuki was 2 years younger and a bit more power. He generated 2.0 fWAR in 111 games for the Cubs. Fangraphs had him valued at $16.1M for 2022.

Suzuki in NPB: .309/.402/.541; average 30 HR and 28 2B over the 6 years before coming to MLB.

Yoshida: .329/.421/.539; 21 HRs and 20 2Bs on average over the last 6 years. 

Agreed that Suzuki had more power in the NPB.  But the BB/K, and bat-to-ball skills (i.e. his high OBP) gives hope for a more successful transition from the NPB to the MLB than Suzuki.  I could be wrong, just feels like he's a solid target (assuming the price is right).  There were pretty high hopes for Suzuki and I think he underwhelmed most people's expectations... which could push down the Yoshima market a bit.

I guess this is where I add:  His bat fits the mold and the offensive as a high OBP guy who can easy slide into the top 3 hitters.  But I also don't think he's a vital team need as an OFer (i.e. SP is vital).  Depends on how crafty Elias gets forming/reforming the roster... @sevastras makes a good point about tapping new revenue markets too.  

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is Elias even allowed to engage in the posting process?

I hope that is something that has changed since Peter stepped down but I haven't heard one way or the other.

Well, the process has changed somewhat over the years.  It’s not like the Dice-K days.  I’d think ownership would only be concerned about total cost, not how it’s whacked up between the posting team and the player.   

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed that Suzuki had more power in the NPB.  But the BB/K, and bat-to-ball skills (i.e. his high OBP) gives hope for a more successful transition from the NPB to the MLB than Suzuki.  I could be wrong, just feels like he's a solid target (assuming the price is right).  There were pretty high hopes for Suzuki and I think he underwhelmed most people's expectations... which could push down the Yoshima market a bit.

I guess this is where I add:  His bat fits the mold and the offensive as a high OBP guy who can easy slide into the top 3 hitters.  But I also don't think he's a vital team need as an OFer (i.e. SP is vital).  Depends on how crafty Elias gets forming/reforming the roster... @sevastras makes a good point about tapping new revenue markets too.  

Suzuki got 5 years at an AAV = $17M; Fangraphs has him worth $16M last year generating 2.0 fWAR. Almost all his value was offense; UZR=1.0, OAA=-4 DRS=-4

So if you go 4yrs and $72M do you get him? Is he gonna be worth $18M next year? I do not know if he is a good defensive outfielder. Yoshida I mean.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
Clarification