How many innings do you think Grayson Rodriguez will throw in 2023?

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

In 2012 they should have kept him on the shelf until partway through the season so he could pitch into September/October. But IIRC the Nats were a surprise team that year and played well above anyone’s expectations. 
 

I know I’m probably the only one that’ll say this, but that’s what I’d like to see the Orioles do. Shelve him until 3/4 of the way through May so he doesn’t hit whatever innings limit they’re going to hold him to before the season is over. 
 

Yes, I realize the games in April and May matter. But we’re playing a balanced schedule this year, more games against less competition from other divisions, not as much against the AL East. I’m confident that this team should be able to hold its own while G-Rod is on the shelf. 
 

I think we’d all be pissed if we’re in playoff contention come September and he’s shut down because he’s reached an innings limit.  If they’re going to have to figure out where in the season to slot his 125-ish innings, I’d prefer it to be towards the back half of the season and allow rooM for playoff baseball. 

Bench him for April and May.  That way when he has a mild hamstring pull in July and misses four starts he can finish the year with 100 innings and we can do this again in 2024.

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bench him for April and May.  That way when he has a mild hamstring pull in July and misses four starts he can finish the year with 100 innings and we can do this again in 2024.

Well, there's that.  Yeah.

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

In 2012 they should have kept him on the shelf until partway through the season so he could pitch into September/October. But IIRC the Nats were a surprise team that year and played well above anyone’s expectations. 
 

I know I’m probably the only one that’ll say this, but that’s what I’d like to see the Orioles do. Shelve him until 3/4 of the way through May so he doesn’t hit whatever innings limit they’re going to hold him to before the season is over. 
 

Yes, I realize the games in April and May matter. But we’re playing a balanced schedule this year, more games against less competition from other divisions, not as much against the AL East. I’m confident that this team should be able to hold its own while G-Rod is on the shelf. 
 

I think we’d all be pissed if we’re in playoff contention come September and he’s shut down because he’s reached an innings limit.  If they’re going to have to figure out where in the season to slot his 125-ish innings, I’d prefer it to be towards the back half of the season and allow rooM for playoff baseball. 

As long as he has IPs in the playoffs.  However, they manage that is fine by me.  I suspect it'll be handled in season.  Something like a tempered first few starts, then lengthen the lease, an IL rest when Means is back, then ramp it back up for the post-season...  But missing cold weather games early is a solid idea too.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

As long as he has IPs in the playoffs.  However, they manage that is fine by me.  I suspect it'll be handled in season.  Something like a tempered first few starts, then lengthen the lease, an IL rest when Means is back, then ramp it back up for the post-season...  But missing cold weather games early is a solid idea too.

I'd rather make 100% sure he hits whatever arbitrary limit cap they have set for him then risk him falling short because playoffs.

Let's get to the playoffs then figure it out.

[btdart20]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather make 100% sure he hits whatever arbitrary limit cap they have set for him then risk him falling short because playoffs.

Let's get to the playoffs then figure it out.

Hard to disagree with that too.  Especially keeping the long-term in mind.  I would think it's more of a range/milestones with some type of on-going discussion of risk/reward as the season progresses.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather make 100% sure he hits whatever arbitrary limit cap they have set for him then risk him falling short because playoffs.

Let's get to the playoffs then figure it out.

That’s more or less my viewpoint.   Of course, it all sort of depends on how well Rodriguez pitches, and how healthy he stays.  In my fantasy world he’s throwing to a sub-3.75 ERA and humming along without injury interruptions, and by mid-May we’re all glued to our television sets every time Grayson is on the mound.  In that scenario, our best route to the playoffs is for Grayson to pitch as much as reasonable during the regular season.  

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

As long as he has IPs in the playoffs.  However, they manage that is fine by me.  I suspect it'll be handled in season.  Something like a tempered first few starts, then lengthen the lease, an IL rest when Means is back, then ramp it back up for the post-season...  But missing cold weather games early is a solid idea too.

Yeah, that's true too.  

IMO, I see this season playing out in one of two ways, the first one being either this team is on-par with where it was last year or takes a step back.  "But Moose, HOW?!?!?!"  Because they played over their heads last summer and were better than they were supposed to be.  We saw this in 2015 and 2016 with the Astros, they made a jump from 2014 when they had 70 wins to 2015 when they won 86 games.  They stalled in 2016, they won 84 games before going to the next level and winning the 101 games and the World Series.  

Predicting baseball is tricky and while we're all really excited about how well this team performed, the amount of good young talent that's on the horizon and should be here in Baltimore in 2023 (Henderson, G-Rod) and the idea that we're actually going to spend money this year, we have to be prepared that 2023 might be an 80-83 win team.  Or maybe it's the inverse of 2022 where the clock has struck midnight and our luck has run out.

Everyone's predictions are always the rosiest.  They usually include players staying healthy for an entire season, players having career years (or something close to it) and never account for the possibility that key guys could get injured or simply not play well.  And I'm here to say that while there's a lot to be excited about, 2023 might not be as great as we're all expecting it to be.  But I'm rambling.

The second way this season works out is that this team is as good or even better than they were in 2022.  And if G-Rod is going to be a big part of that, -and all signs point to that he will be a big part of that-, people are going to be piiiiiiissssed if September 1st rolls around, we're in the thick of a playoff hunt and he needs to be shut down.  

IMO, this season will play out the 2nd way partly due to the balanced schedule.  We're going to get to play creampuff teams like the Cubs, Pirates and Marlins and less against the AL East.  Unfortunately, the Yankees and Rays and Jays and Sox get more games against those teams, too, which will make our head to head matchups in the division more meaningful.  But as far as a sheer win total goes, I expect us to have more wins in 2023 than we did in 2022.  

Even though this whole post has been about making predictions, I'm usually one not to make them.  But mark my words, (and @Frobby, you can squirrel this one away wherever you keep things you dreg up 9-10 months later)  they will shut G-Rod down later in the season at a highly inopportune time.  He'll be pissed, we'll be pissed. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Everyone's predictions are always the rosiest. 

Excuse me?

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Excuse me?

You're excused.

Seriously, everyone's predictions are the rosiest.  Everyone is always betting on the best outcome.  Even last year when I thought this was a 62 win team, that was the rosiest.  I just wanted to see them avoid losing 100 games....but for me, that was the rosiest. 

[baltimoriole]

Everyone is rosy on this thread IMO. He averaged 4.1 innings per start last year.  He had all of two starts of 6 IP or more out of 17 last year.  He was on the IL for 2 months for a non-throwing arm injury.  The O's clearly are handling him with the softest gentleist kid gloves imaginable. If he has the slightest strain he'll miss a few starts and I struggle to see him averaging more than 5 IP per start in his first year.  Mark me down as 100 or less, however, I'll be floored if he has more than that.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, baltimoriole said:

Everyone is rosy on this thread IMO. He averaged 4.1 innings per start last year.  He had all of two starts of 6 IP or more out of 17 last year.  He was on the IL for 2 months for a non-throwing arm injury.  The O's clearly are handling him with the softest gentleist kid gloves imaginable. If he has the slightest strain he'll miss a few starts and I struggle to see him averaging more than 5 IP per start in his first year.  Mark me down as 100 or less, however, I'll be floored if he has more than that.

The reason his IP per start were so low last year were (1) they were trying to save some innings for after his promotion to the big leagues, and (2) when he returned from injury he was going through the typical ramp-up.  I’ll certainly take the over on 5 IP per start and 100 IP.

[Es4M11]

Put me down for 130ish IP. If it were me I'd let Rodriguez start the year in the rotation and go until he hits the 130 IP, then sit him down. By this time I would think it would be August and John Means should be ready to pitch. Back fill GR's spot in the rotation with Means. Seems to make perfect sense to me.

[wildcard]

I think the kid gloves treatment will continue this year for Grayson.   This is to try to avoid injury and get him through a full season.   I think he will ramp up to 5 innings per start in ST.   They will limit him to 5 innings per start through April.   They will let him go 6 innings in May if he can.  

Sometime in June they will switch him to a two inning opener.   And that is what he will be the rest of the season and in the playoffs IMO.   He will pitch every 5th day, giving him 6 days whenever possible.    He will make around 30 starts.   Wells or Voth will be the bulk guys that he may be teamed with.

This is not too dissimilar to what they did with Hall last season.  Hall didn't pitch in a game until April 29th.  They limited his innings for a about a month.  Ramped him up to 4 or 5 innings for about two months and then on August 18th switched him to  1 or 2 inning reliever.

I think Grayson's total innings will be 100-110 depending on how he does.

Elias/Holt have been very conservative with him so far and he still got hurt with a lat strain.   I don't see them just taking all the restrictions away.  Making 30 starts in 2023 would be a big achievement for him.

JMO

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Grayson's total innings will be 100-110 depending on how he does.

They let Hall increase his IP by 65, but you think they’ll only let Grayson increase by 25-35?   I’ll be surprised if they’re that conservative.   

[Just Regular]

It'll be a bad year if the team's competitive situation doesn't put Elias or whoever to a possibly tough decision here.

"Controlling the competitive environment" only gets publicized as a virtue for teams doing the stuff of Elias' first four years.     Teams like the Dodgers and Astros earn that privilege with their excellence - these Orioles aren't there yet.

Grayson should pitch the 3rd or 4th game of the year, and pitch as well as he can for 20-ish turns.    Then see where we are.     Maybe we trade him then for Burnes and Woodruff and Devin Williams, Milwaukee can let him rest up for next year.