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By LookitsPuck · Posted
First 16 starts from: GRod - 5.44 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.407 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 Bradish - 5.63 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.538 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9 Povich - 5.20 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.431 WHIP, 7.8 SO/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9 -
By Aristotelian · Posted
I don't know of anywhere that has exactly what you are looking for. Statcast will tell you for every ball hit how many parks it would have gone out of, but I don't know how you could easily translate to one number of HR added/taken away. For what it's worth, we were #2 in road HR, #3 in home HR, #4 in road OPS, #8 at home. Slight disadvantage but it's not like it makes the difference between an amazing offense and a bad one. Plus, presumably the other team has the same challenges. Theoretically, it should be an efficiency that we can exploit in building our team. Players that would be more valuable to us than other teams would be: LH power hitters (Gunnar, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins, O'Hearn) Speedy left fielder who would be CF on most teams (Cowser) LHP's who can negate opposing LH power hitters (bullpen has a good set of LHP's) RHB's who don't need to hit HR to be productive and/or with opposite field power (Westburg and Urias might fit this but Mountcastle not so much) However, I wonder whether we have gone too far in focusing on developing LHB. Now that we traded Norby, we really don't have much RH in the system. This hurts us when matched up against good LHP. -
It’s that last bolded part. Mostly. What they’re showing in that chart is the run value of the actual outcome of each pitch the batter saw in that zone — not the value of “good take” vs. “bad swing,” as you might assume based on the context. So in the the heart of the plate, for example, everyone’s “take” runs are going to be negative, because taking almost assuredly resulted in a strike every time. So every “take” outcome was negative, and they’re adding up that negative run value for each one to get the total damage done by taking pitches in the middle of the plate. For Adley, that was -13 runs of negative value this year. On the other hand, you get a wide disparity of values from “swings” in the heart of the plate, and that’s basically dependent on how good the hitter is. Because what they’re looking at is the result of the swing — good hitters do tons of damage on pitches down the middle, but bad hitters still make lots of outs on them. The worst hitter in baseball on pitches in the heart of the plate was Maikel “Just Go Ahead and Bunt Three Times” Garcia. He took almost as many of these pitches as Adley, so his takes in the heart of the plate were worth -12 runs. He also sucked something terrible at hitting them, posting a whopping -19 run value when he swung at pitches in the heart zone. The best hitter in baseball on pitches in the heart of the plate (and top 5 in every zone) was…wait for it…Aaron Judge with +41 run value. Though he was much better than league average at swinging at heart pitches, he still took 160 of them (for strikes), so those were worth -11 runs. He destroyed the pitches he swung at, though, to the tune of +52 runs on swings. It’s the same throughout all the other zones. So for Adley, his takes were a little below average in the “shadow” zone — meaning the pitches he took around the fringes of the plate were called strikes more than they were called balls. And all the called balls he took in the “chase” and “waste” zones were worth a combined total of +40 runs. Swings in the “shadow” zone usually result in negative value, except for your really elite hit tool guys (Witt, Ramirez, Marte, Alvarez, etc). Which makes sense, because it’s really the so-called “pitcher’s pitch” area. Adley was -14 runs of value added on his swing here, which is not great but not really horrible either. The last two zones are pretty simple — taking pitches will result in a ball, so all of those are good outcomes. Swinging at them pretty much inevitably will result in a strike or an out, so they’re almost all bad outcomes. Adley was comparatively good in this area, with the value of his ability to lay off bad pitches far outweighing the damage done when he did chase. In the end, it sort of tells us the same story that we already knew from watching him. He’s pretty good at laying off bad pitches, although he expanded the zone a lot more this year than last (which didn’t seem to work out). He also just inexplicably took tons of good strikes in the heart of the plate (which definitely didn’t work out). Swinging at more bad pitches and less good pitches is certainly part of the recipe for the disastrous 2nd half, I think. -
Also noting an market move away from long-term SP commitments... 2023-24 off-season saw some FA SP difficulties landing their hoped-for deals -
On #10, I think we may experiment with trying Akin as a starter again. If he were to add a sinker and improve his change-up (a la Chris Sale last year), we may have something. -
Given an aversion to a long-term commitment to SPs, is there an appetite for an ultra-high AAV on a short term contract? Would a Cole or Snell take a 2 year for $(fill in extravagant amount) deal? Add some options/hedges as needed.
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On #7, you would obviously love to lock up Gunnar and Westburg but that’s going to be extremely difficult with Boras. I wouldn’t mind extending Eflin.
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