The 2023 ERA Projections Thread

[Frobby]

Here are ERA projections from Steamer, Marcel, ZiPS and Davenport 

Rodriguez 3.83/—/3.98/3.43

Bradish 4.13/4.39/4.69/4.08

Gibson 4.24/4.44/4.54/4.38

Kremer 4.53/4.04/3.51/4.37

Wells 4.62/4.04/4.50/4.54

Bautista 3.13/3.10/2.94/3.30

Hall 3.18/4.11/4.14/3.61

Means 3.91/3.76/3.98/4.78

Baker 3.63/3.69/3.92/3.87

Akin 3.51/4.34/4.25/3.73

Perez 3.50/3.21/4.07/3.62

Voth 4.55/4.45/4.63/4.65

Tate 3.85/3.65/4.15/3.75

Givens 4.06/3.69/4.17/3.92

Not a huge amount of variance here, with the exceptions of ZiPS being very optimistic on Kremer, Steamer very bullish on Hall, and Davenport quite gloomy on Means.  Overall I’m pleased with the projections for Rodriguez and Hall.

[mlrhode]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here are ERA projections from Steamer, Marcel, ZiPS and Davenport 

Rodriguez 3.83/—/3.98/3.43

Bradish 4.13/4.39/4.69/4.08

Gibson 4.24/4.44/4.54/4.38

Kremer 4.53/4.04/3.51/4.37

Wells 4.62/4.04/4.50/4.54

Bautista 3.13/3.10/2.94/3.30

Hall 3.18/4.11/4.14/3.61

Means 3.91/3.76/3.98/4.78

Baker 3.63/3.69/3.92/3.87

Akin 3.51/4.34/4.25/3.73

Perez 3.50/3.21/4.07/3.62

Voth 4.55/4.45/4.63/4.65

Tate 3.85/3.65/4.15/3.75

Givens 4.06/3.69/4.17/3.92

Not a huge amount of variance here, with the exceptions of ZiPS being very optimistic on Kremer, Steamer very bullish on Hall, and Davenport quite gloomy on Means.  Overall I’m pleased with the projections for Rodriguez and Hall.

Any indication if Hall’s numbers are as a starter or reliever?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, mlrhode said:

Any indication if Hall’s numbers are as a starter or reliever?

ZiPS sees him primarily but not exclusively as a starter; the others see him mostly but not exclusively as a reliever.   

[Explosivo]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

ZiPS sees him primarily but not exclusively as a starter; the others see him mostly but not exclusively as a reliever.   

I'd love to try him out as a starter. He already has experience from last year and now that his arm is healthy, we might as well stretch him out. He pitches the first 5 innings and hands it over to our bullpen. He has a special arm and as a lefty there are few teams with a player like him. That gives him an edge. Yes, he has to reign the arm in, but what's the reason not to rip the band aid off this year and see what his arm can do as a starter? At worst, he gets pulled and we bring in a long reliever and it becomes a bullpen game. At best, he figures it out and we've got a really dynamic young lefty.

[sportsfan8703]

We definitely need to give Hall every chance there is in ST and AAA to be a starter. The bullpen as us doesn’t need him. Plus, we need to try and get him to be a middle of rotation lefty SP. That’s worth about 4/60+ on the FA market. 
 

I’m starting to think that Akin might be packaged in a trade. He’s out of options. Nobody saw the Sulser/Scott trade last year coming. I’m thinking if Elias can get a comp pick for Akin/Tate then he jumps all over it. 

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We definitely need to give Hall every chance there is in ST and AAA to be a starter. The bullpen as us doesn’t need him. Plus, we need to try and get him to be a middle of rotation lefty SP. That’s worth about 4/60+ on the FA market. 
 

I’m starting to think that Akin might be packaged in a trade. He’s out of options. Nobody saw the Sulser/Scott trade last year coming. I’m thinking if Elias can get a comp pick for Akin/Tate then he jumps all over it. 

I agree with both points. Although Givens is RH, the addition to the bullpen gives us less reason to start Hall in the MLB bullpen. He had a great stretch where he looked like he was on the verge of a callup as a starter before he had a mini implosion. Too much upside to just stick in the bullpen.

Akin is a sneaky trade choice. Seems like the team never trusted him in high leverage despite good numbers. I could be reading into it  but for whatever reason he just doesn't seem to fit in the culture. Arb eligible next year. Could be a time to sell high. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m starting to think that Akin might be packaged in a trade. He’s out of options. Nobody saw the Sulser/Scott trade last year coming. I’m thinking if Elias can get a comp pick for Akin/Tate then he jumps all over it. 

According to Roster Resource, Akin has an option remaining.   He was optioned towards the end of last season, but recalled a day or two later and I believe the option was rescinded and so the O’s did not use an option on him last year.

[oriole]

Interesting that they’re all fairly high on Hall. Not a great year at any level last year. Not saying a bounce back isn’t going to happen but I’d guess he’s going to be more of a high 4 ERA kinda guy til he’s not or fades into obscurity. I certainly wouldn’t be predicting a sub-4 ERA until he shows he’s capable of it. 

[Moose Milligan]

Give me Hall with the 3.18 please.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Give me Hall with the 3.18 please.

If it's 3.18 as a starter yea, if it's 3.18 out of the pen I'll take it but I won't be super happy about it. 

[Sports Guy]

Wait, no 3.29 ERA for Bradish?

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wait, no 3.29 ERA for Bradish?

I also like to look at the ZiPS 80th percentile and 20th percentile projections.  I’ll post them here (50, 80, 20):

Rodriguez 3.98/3.21/4.86

Bradish 4.69/4.04/5.33

Gibson 4.54/4.04/5.26

Kremer 3.51/3.11/4.01

Wells 4.50/3.91/5.14

Bautista 2.94/2.18/4.07

Hall 4.14/3.42/5.11

Means 3.98/3.53/4.57

Baker 3.92/3.16/4.85

Akin 4.25/3.56/5.06

Perez 4.07/3.37/4.86

Voth 4.63/4.04/5.31

Tate 4.15/3.60/4.93

Givens 4.17/3.35/5.40

So, ZiPS thinks there’s less than a 20% chance that Bradish will finish with an ERA under 4.00.  Honestly, I do think that’s kind of a pessimistic take on him, though I certainly wouldn’t project him for 3.29.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it's 3.18 as a starter yea, if it's 3.18 out of the pen I'll take it but I won't be super happy about it. 

It would depend a little on what his relief role is.   If he’s a 2-3 inning guy, 3.18 would be pretty good.

I’m guessing we see Hall pitch 100Ish innings with a mix of starts and relief appearances.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It would depend a little on what his relief role is.   If he’s a 2-3 inning guy, 3.18 would be pretty good.

I’m guessing we see Hall pitch 100Ish innings with a mix of starts and relief appearances.   

Like I said, I'll take it but I won't be super happy about it.

Hall as a 2-3 inning guy with an ERA over 3 isn't a great outcome.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Like I said, I'll take it but I won't be super happy about it.

Hall as a 2-3 inning guy with an ERA over 3 isn't a great outcome.

I said last year I think Hall is a multi-year project before he really clicks.  So, I’d consider that kind of year to be good progress.