2023 Lineup Guesses

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It was 63 at bats.

You got something better? Stowers had 2 AB vs lefties and he can't field near as well as McKenna.

Edited January 14, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

You got something better?

Just saying I wouldn't say probably based off of 63 at bats.

It certainly could happen.

Folks are a bit platoon happy around here in general, not sure enough spots exist for it in this day and age of huge pitching staffs.

[ChuckS]

The OP has Frazier in the lineup against LHP.  God, I hope not.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

252 PA is close to half a season at DH in his career.

That’s still not a lot.  It’s far from nothing.  So, I’m not saying it’s to be ignored.  

[terpoh]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s some batting order data from last year:

1st: Mullins 141, Hays 11, McKenna 6, Henderson 2, Mancini 1, Vavra 1

2nd: Mancini 60, Rutschman 58, Hays 13, Mountcastle 13, Santander 13, Urias 4, Mateo 1

3rd: Santander 101, Mountcastle 30, Mancini 19, Hays 6, Henderson 3, Aguilar 1, Rutschman 1, Vavra 1

4th: Mountcastle 63, Hays 39, Santander 31, Mancini 10, Urias 8, Rutschman 7, Stowers 1, Henderson 1, Aguilar 1, Odor 1

5th: Mountcastle 30, Urias 25, Hays 20, Rutschman 19, Henderson 17, Odor 16, Vavra 8, Aguilar 6, Nevin 5, Santander 4, Stowers 4, McKenna 4, Mateo 3, Mancini 1.

6th: Urias 30, Hays 29, Odor 26, Rutschman 21, Nevin 18, Vavra 7, Mountcastle 6, Henderson 5, Mateo 4, McKenna 4, Chirinos 4, Stowers 3, Aguilar 3, Santander 1, Mullins 1

7th: Odor 43, Urias 29, Mateo 20, Nevin 16, Hays 15, McKenna 12, Chirinos 9, Stowers 5, Vavra 4, Owings 3, Mountcastle 2, Bannon 2, Rutschman 1, Aguilar 1

8th: Chirinos 28, Mateo 27, Mateo 25, Urias 13, McKenna 11, Bemboom 11, Nevin 10, Stowers 8, Arrauz 7, Hays 6, Gutierrez 6, Vavra 5, Henderson 2, Mullins 2, Phillips 1

9th: Mateo 89, Chirinos 22, Owings 16, Martin 9, McKenna 6, Nevin 4, Bemboom 4, Phillips 3, Stowers 3, Bannon 2, Gutierrez 2, Arrauz 1, Vavra 1

As you can see, only the 1st (Mullins), 3rd (Santander) and 9th (Mateo spots) were manned by the same player even half the time.  Mancini occupied the 2nd spot more than half the time while he was on the team.  But overall, there were tons of different combinations, and I expect that will continue to be the case.  

I know Adley doesnt reach the threshold for "half the time" but he was clearly entrenched in the 2 hole last season once he was established there so I would add that to Mullins, Santander and Mateo as a constant in their spots in the lineup. 

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, terpoh said:

I know Adley doesnt reach the threshold for "half the time" but he was clearly entrenched in the 2 hole last season once he was established there so I would add that to Mullins, Santander and Mateo as a constant in their spots in the lineup. 

Not sure that Mullins will be in against lefties since he had a 579 OPS vs them and McKenna hit lefties to a 794 OPS last season.  Hyde was doing a sort of platoon with them late last season.

Mateo may not be in the lineup everyday if he doesn't hit better than last year and Gunnar hits well and plays SS anywhere  close to as good.   I see Gunnar splitting time at SS/3B with Urias filling in at 3B when Gunnar is at short.

Edited January 14, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Not sure that Mullins will be in against lefties since he had a 579 OPS vs them and McKenna hit lefties to a 794 OPS last season.  Hyde was doing a sort of platoon with them late last season.

Mateo may not be in the lineup everyday if he doesn't hit better than last year and Gunnar hits well and plays SS anywhere  close to as good.   I see Gunnar splitting time at SS/3B with Urias filling in at 3B when Gunnar is at short.

I think Mullins will be given a chance to play most of the time vs. lefties in the first half of the season, to see if he’s been able to make adjustments over the winter.   Similarly I think Hyde will give Mateo some rope to start the season.  

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Mullins will be given a chance to play most of the time vs. lefties in the first half of the season, to see if he’s been able to make adjustments over the winter.   Similarly I think Hyde will give Mateo some rope to start the season.  

You are probably right on Mullins.  70% of the playing time is against righties anyway and Mullins will get the majority of that.  But I think Elias/Hyde will want to see what Gunnar can do at short so there may be a fairly even split with Mateo at SS early in the season.    Later Ortiz may be called up.

Edited January 14, 2023 by wildcard

[emmett16]

If Mateo is on the team when the camp breaks, I imagine he will be given the starting job.  But as soon as he goes into one of his prolonged slumps, he's going to lose his spot Gunnar.  I have to imagine Elias is trying to trade Mateo, he's the tip of the SS iceberg in the organization.  The league knows that as well and likely isn't going to give ME the value he wants.  I wouldn't mind seeing him traded for a couple super young pitching prospects to stick in low A just to get some value for him.  My fear is he will be terrible next year, and we will be left with nothing.  

[terpoh]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Not sure that Mullins will be in against lefties since he had a 579 OPS vs them and McKenna hit lefties to a 794 OPS last season.  Hyde was doing a sort of platoon with them late last season.

Mateo may not be in the lineup everyday if he doesn't hit better than last year and Gunnar hits well and plays SS anywhere  close to as good.   I see Gunnar splitting time at SS/3B with Urias filling in at 3B when Gunnar is at short.

Yea I dont disagree with you. I was moreso talking about looking at last years lineups- not any 2023 predictions.

Theres gotta be some movement roster wise with Urias/Mateo/Gunnar/Westburg/Frazier essentially for 3 spots and Norby and Ortiz knocking on the door. I dont see any reason to have Urias on the roster and on the bench. He has proved to be valuable enough as a starter. So whether you've got him at 3B and Gunnar at SS, or Gunnar at 3B and Mateo at SS youve got some additional movement (trade) that probably should happen. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by terpoh

[Sydnor]

This thread makes me more aggravated that the Orioles signed Frazier.

With respect to Mullins, I highly doubt that they are going to make him a platoon player to start the year given that he leads center fielders in fWAR over the past two seasons at 9.3 (Bryan Reynolds is second at 9.0). I understand that 2021 was better than 2022, but I don’t think the team will or should assume that he is incapable of hitting left handed pitching given the defensive and base running value that he brings.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, terpoh said:

Yea I dont disagree with you. I was moreso talking about looking at last years lineups- not any 2023 predictions.

Theres gotta be some movement roster wise with Urias/Mateo/Gunnar/Westburg/Frazier essentially for 3 spots and Norby and Ortiz knocking on the door. I dont see any reason to have Urias on the roster and on the bench. He has proved to be valuable enough as a starter. So whether you've got him at 3B and Gunnar at SS, or Gunnar at 3B and Mateo at SS youve got some additional movement (trade) that probably should happen. 

My way of thinking about this is that Westburg will not be in that mix.     He will probably begin the season at AAA because they want the 7th year of him.  This spring and while he is at AAA they will have him play some 1B, corner OF  and DH some.   His bat is what the O's need from him and they will move him around to get him at bats.

Friazer will be traded at the deadline if has any value.   He is on a one year contract and they lose him after the season if he is not traded.   That opens room for Ortiz later in the season.

From what I have heard Norby is a hitter.  His future is not in the infield.  Defensively he can't beat out the other infielders.   He is a DH IMO.  But there is no rush to begin him up.  Santander may be traded at some point opening up room at DH.

Edited January 14, 2023 by wildcard