Ryan Mountcastle 2023

[panick]

10 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Ryan has a problem. He is making it too easy for the opponents pitcher because he is swinging at crap. If he is going to swing at crap, then the pitcher is never going to throw him a strike in the zone that he can hit hard. Therefor, the pitcher will keep throwing low ball beneath and away from the zone until Mountcastle can prove he will take the ball and take the walks.  Otherwise, why would any pitcher worth his salt give Mounty a ball he can hit out of the park if he doesn't have to?

 

He's gotta stop swinging at junk.

In an interview, Mountcastle said he doesn't like to take walks. Hence the reason he swings at junk.

[bpilktree]

10 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Ryan has a problem. He is making it too easy for the opponents pitcher because he is swinging at crap. If he is going to swing at crap, then the pitcher is never going to throw him a strike in the zone that he can hit hard. Therefor, the pitcher will keep throwing low ball beneath and away from the zone until Mountcastle can prove he will take the ball and take the walks.  Otherwise, why would any pitcher worth his salt give Mounty a ball he can hit out of the park if he doesn't have to?

 

He's gotta stop swinging at junk.

Yet he is still near the top in the league it hard hit balls.  So is he hitting balls out of the strike zone that hard or are the pitchers still throwing strikes.   Mountcastle is one of those guys that his analytical stats don’t equate for whatever reason.  Yes he has flaws but you look at the numbers and they should be better.  If you look at the list Tony posted you have guys that are free swingers like Mountcastle, guys that are super patient and an amazing eye like Juan Soto but then he has low barrel percentage for some reason and has struggled for last 2 years or so compared to when he came up.  I remember when he came up he looked like one of best pure hitters and amazing plate discipline I thought he would be like Mike Trout with the bat but it hasn’t translated over time for some reason.  You also have Wong who is patient hitter with decent barrel percentage and one of lowest swing and miss rates but numbers don’t translate.  

Mountcastle is currently 43rd in all of baseball in sweet spot  percentage only behind Adley, on the team.  He ranks 16th in baseball in velocity rate and .1 mph behind Judge.  Distance in balls hit he is 10th,  9th in balls hit over 95 mph.  He is 5th in barreled balls.  He is 7th worst in average compared to expected average. He has the 7th worst quality contact+walks+strikeouts in baseball.    His chase rate is the one glaring negative but his whiff rate is just slightly below average and same with k rate.  So even with him chasing more he is still making contact at average rate all in all. Then factoring in his exit velocity on balls in play he should be having much better success then he is.  

[Ohfan67]

56 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

No you do not have to be a nerd.  Not even to answer PB's question above.  Why you only need to know your baseball movie trivia.  The great Crash Davis laid it out perfectly while getting intoxicated in a pool hall.  While I recommend seeing the whole movie, here for your pleasure PyscoBird68, is what just a little luck can do for a baseball player over a season of 500 at bats:

 

I’m not sure if you know this or not, but that was a movie. And not a documentary.

 

But seriously, a low BABIP is not all luck. One of the things that helps generate a low BABIP is making contact with pitcher’s pitches/bad pitches. Low BABIP is often correlated with high chase rates and low walk rates. As I mentioned earlier I root for Mountcastle and hope he succeeds. But he has a glaring hole in his game that is holding him back and he may not be able to fix it. And now there are talented players knocking on the door. If Ryan doesn’t perform better/fold some good luck, then he’s going to get replaced.  

[RZNJ]

It’s better to be lucky than good.  Just kidding but we’re into year two of being “unlucky”.   I’m not ready to move on from Mountcastle but if this continues at some point I don’t care about barrel rates and hard hit rates.  I want results.

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Yet he is still near the top in the league it hard hit balls.  So is he hitting balls out of the strike zone that hard or are the pitchers still throwing strikes.   Mountcastle is one of those guys that his analytical stats don’t equate for whatever reason.  Yes he has flaws but you look at the numbers and they should be better.  If you look at the list Tony posted you have guys that are free swingers like Mountcastle, guys that are super patient and an amazing eye like Juan Soto but then he has low barrel percentage for some reason and has struggled for last 2 years or so compared to when he came up.  I remember when he came up he looked like one of best pure hitters and amazing plate discipline I thought he would be like Mike Trout with the bat but it hasn’t translated over time for some reason.  You also have Wong who is patient hitter with decent barrel percentage and one of lowest swing and miss rates but numbers don’t translate.  

Mountcastle is currently 43rd in all of baseball in sweet spot  percentage only behind Adley, on the team.  He ranks 16th in baseball in velocity rate and .1 mph behind Judge.  Distance in balls hit he is 10th,  9th in balls hit over 95 mph.  He is 5th in barreled balls.  He is 7th worst in average compared to expected average. He has the 7th worst quality contact+walks+strikeouts in baseball.    His chase rate is the one glaring negative but his whiff rate is just slightly below average and same with k rate.  So even with him chasing more he is still making contact at average rate all in all. Then factoring in his exit velocity on balls in play he should be having much better success then he is.  

Ryan is very high on the “that was a crappy at bat” list. What metrics best capture the number/percentage of crappy at bats? I’m serious. i think in Ryan’s case, it is not totally straightforward. He seems to have a higher percentage of totally non-competitive looking at bats than more successful players. Walk rate is probably a stronger correlative with percent crappy at bats than most or maybe all of the other metrics? 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Yet he is still near the top in the league it hard hit balls.  So is he hitting balls out of the strike zone that hard or are the pitchers still throwing strikes.   Mountcastle is one of those guys that his analytical stats don’t equate for whatever reason.  Yes he has flaws but you look at the numbers and they should be better.  

Here’s a question that warrants further study.  These “expected” stats are based on exit velocity and launch angle but don’t take vertical angle into account.   So let’s say Mountcastle swings at a pitch 6 inches outside the strike zone and at a decent launch angle.  “Expected” stats will say that profile has a 50% chance of being a hit.  But because he reached for it, there’s only one place that ball can really go, and that’s in the general area where the RF is standing.  So in reality, even though he hit it hard, there’s nothing really unlucky about the fact that the batted ball turned into an out.  And I think this may be one reason why Mountcastle has now been “unlucky” two years in a row.  He’s hitting pitches that aren’t strikes, or which are pitcher’s pitches, and even if he hits them hard at a good launch angle, they tend to go to locations where the fielders are.  Please note: I’m not stating this as a fact.  It’s a theory.   

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

You never know but I'd be surprised if Mountcastle ever hits over .800 OPS for a season again.  He's just too streaky. 

I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t, though it depends a bit on the overall offensive environment of the league.  But yes, he’s streaky, in part because his plate discipline is awful.  

[Ohfan67]

51 minutes ago, panick said:

In an interview, Mountcastle said he doesn't like to take walks. Hence the reason he swings at junk.

This is not a new attitude for Ryan. I can't find the original news story with Buck's quote, but here's a summary of Buck's comments in 2018's spring training:

"Showalter decided it was a good time to plant a seed in Mountcastle’s mind after the youngster had a big 2017 season between High-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. “I noticed last year that you only walked 17 times,” Showalter told Mountcastle, who chuckled.

“Understand it’s not funny,” Showalter told him."

[RZNJ]

Hays and Mountcastle have each played 20 games.   Mountcastle has 3 walks and 22 strikeouts.   Hays has 5 walks and 22 strikeouts.  Yet Hays is hitting .311 with a .935 OPS while Mountcastle is .212 and .704.      No conclusions.  Just thought it was interesting.

[Bird Is The Word]

His plate discipline has got to get better to reach his All-Star potential I think he has.That simple.

[bpilktree]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hays and Mountcastle have each played 20 games.   Mountcastle has 3 walks and 22 strikeouts.   Hays has 5 walks and 22 strikeouts.  Yet Hays is hitting .311 with a .935 OPS while Mountcastle is .212 and .704.      No conclusions.  Just thought it was interesting.

Yeah if you look at the analytical stats they show they should be having similar type season which is far from the case.  I don’t watch enough of other teams on a daily basis to compare how players are doing compared to what those stats say but I do watch pretty much every Orioles game so the eye test and stat comparison is much easier to compare.  This shows the comparison on our team which fits more to comparing numbers to eye test.  Some things seem accurate but few stats don’t match with what data says, like Adley having worst hard hit %. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/percentile-rankings?type=batter&year=2023&team=Orioles

[jrobb21613]

If Mounty is struggling closer to the deadline who are if any realistic trade options at first base we could target?

[Ohfan67]

27 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

If Mounty is struggling closer to the deadline who are if any realistic trade options at first base we could target?

Elias is not going to trade for a first baseman (and he should be fired if he does!). The options are in the minors or already on the ML team. 

[Just Regular]

I still am somewhat bullish on Mountcastle as a medium term contributor because of the lineup diversity he brings.

Something I don't know, but will get to see watch play out the next few years, is does OMAR literally want all nine regulars to basically be Matrix Agent Smith.     I'm enjoying a few in the lineup, look forward to half a dozen, but don't know if you start to get diminishing returns with all Colton Cowsers.

If Samuel Basallo splashes the pool of the best Nine Bats for the Peak Adley lineups, it eats into Mountcastle's end of Arb.

Adley, Gunnar, Kjerstad, Mayo, Cowser, Holliday and Basallo only leave room for one other guy if you figure the Club will steer away from an everyday DH as seems to be conventional wisdom.     Mullins' raw talent isn't on that group's level, but I think his CF grip is solid for awhile.

On the bubble as regular candidates: Mateo, Hays, Mountcastle, all the second basemen.

[jrobb21613]

14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Elias is not going to trade for a first baseman (and he should be fired if he does!). The options are in the minors or already on the ML team. 

Who would you suggest  replace him?