Elias makes two things clear; 1st base and Irvin

[eddie83]

43 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

ME is obviously putting a focus on defense & LH bats.  All guys drafted at Plus defenders giving us an advantage on defense.  He's drafting LH heavy hitters to give us an advantage on offense.  Living in the margins.  

My question would be when did they decide to move the wall. Obviously they didn’t come up with the idea in a day. Took some time. 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, deward said:

It hasn't. More HR didn't equal a crazy run environment overall. The numbers are what they are.

In 2021, O’s pitchers allowed 58 more runs at home than on the road.  In 2022, they allowed 18 fewer runs at home than on the road.   So, I’d say the new dimensions helped them.  

In 2021, O’s hitters scored 65 more runs at home than on the road.  In 2022, they scored 11 fewer runs at home than on the road.  So, I’d say the new dimensions hurt them.

I’d also say that the new dimensions were far closer to league neutral than the old ones, with the new home/road splits being a total of -29 home vs. road, with the old ones being +123.   
 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yeah I just don't see how this gives the Orioles a distinct advantage over teams. Seems extremely negligible at best. 

I’m the last person in the world to whine about payrolls. That said look at the big market teams. The biggest advantage those teams have is the money they spend on SP. Look around the sport. What’s the % of SP’s who are home grown? I bet it’s under 50%. Maybe under 40%. The Orioles aren’t signing a big name starter. 
 

They are trying to create an environment which helps to level out their pitching deficit. Elias can build over time a team that fits the stadium. Look at how important Betts was in RF at Fenway. Over time he will want athletic LF’s, power hitting LHH, LHSP and good all around RHH. This doesn’t mean star players don’t thrive in any park but like emmett16 said it’s help on the margins. No park is going to take a 100 loss team and turn it into a winner but you can certainly have a park where you aren’t at a deficit. All the opposing teams loved to come in here especially in the summer and hit bombs.  

[emmett16]

23 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yeah I just don't see how this gives the Orioles a distinct advantage over teams. Seems extremely negligible at best. 

I Think it's going to take some time to see tangible results, but it sure seems like there is a preference for LH bats and plus defensive tools.

Gunnar LH

Basallo LH

Adley S

Stowers LH

Vavra LH

Holiday LH

Cowser LH

Kjerstad LH

Beavers LH

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, deward said:

It's interesting....one year park factors are often fickle, but we only have one year of data to go on with the new dimensions. Based on that one year, the bigger LF didn't result in the increase in doubles and triples that some were hoping for; it looks like the lost HR were traded instead for a bunch of singles. In terms of actual runs scored, it wasn't much different than many previous years.

https://www.seamheads.com/ballparks/ballpark.php?parkID=BAL12&tab=pf1

You have to wonder of the improvement of the pitching helped these numbers as well. Obviously it's a bit of a chicken or the egg situation.

The interesting part is that Kremer, Watkins and Lyles were much better at home than away, but Bradish was a little better on the road. Tyler Wells was the only one who was much better away than home. 

 

[LTO's]

10 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I Think it's going to take some time to see tangible results, but it sure seems like there is a preference for LH bats and plus defensive tools.

I think that was their preference regardless. Like you said it will take some time to see tangible results. 

[LookinUp]

On 2/4/2023 at 12:19 PM, HakunaSakata said:

Fair enough and I'm all for competitive advantages, but at the same time changing the dimensions of the ballpark rather than placing an emphasis on the development and/or acquisition of young pitching seems just as extreme to me. ...

I don't believe they did one thing rather than the other. I think they have a particular approach to player acquisition. They've traded for a ton of arms over the last few years. Much more than bats. They do so, I assume, because they think they can get more value drafting bats and then trading them for multiple arms. 

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think I'd buy into that idea a bit more if Elias had taken a more balanced approach to drafting, signing and developing both young pitching and hitting. In looking at our projected starting rotation for 2023, it's hard for me not to think the leftfield modification was just an attempt to cover up mediocre to bad pitching. 

Again, you're ignoring trades here.

Seth Johnson, Chance McDermott, Cano, Nunez, Povich, Rojas. Add in the trades with the Angels and it's clear. The O's get a load of arms from trades and free agent signings, for that matter.

[deward]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In 2021, O’s pitchers allowed 58 more runs at home than on the road.  In 2022, they allowed 18 fewer runs at home than on the road.   So, I’d say the new dimensions helped them.  

In 2021, O’s hitters scored 65 more runs at home than on the road.  In 2022, they scored 11 fewer runs at home than on the road.  So, I’d say the new dimensions hurt them.

I’d also say that the new dimensions were far closer to league neutral than the old ones, with the new home/road splits being a total of -29 home vs. road, with the old ones being +123.   
 

I'm not sure how much one year will tell you, especially when your point of comparison is the historically bad 2021 pitching staff on a tanking team. I took a look at the team ERA every year since 2003 (starting there because I went back 20 years from today, then decided to drop off 2019 forward, as they were tanking, and 2022 had the new dimensions). The teams average home ERA over the 2003-2018 period was 4.47, compared to road ERA of 4.84, which is a decrease of 0.36 when pitching at home. The American League, excluding the O's, had an average home ERA of 4.07 over the same years, and a road ERA of 4.43, a decrease of......0.36. In other words, while their overall ERA was higher both at home and on the road, the O's pitchers appeared to be getting the same benefit from pitching at home that everyone else was getting.

	Home	Away	AL Avg Home ERA (excl BAL)	AL Avg Away ERA (excl BAL)
2018	4.71	5.70	4.07	4.35
2017	4.60	5.38	4.14	4.54
2016	3.81	4.64	4.08	4.34
2015	4.09	4.02	3.77	4.26
2014	3.22	3.66	3.83	3.87
2013	4.26	4.14	3.93	4.03
2012	4.15	3.64	3.88	4.34
2011	4.73	5.13	3.96	4.09
2010	4.66	4.52	3.81	4.42
2009	4.70	5.66	4.16	4.67
2008	5.14	5.16	3.98	4.63
2007	5.38	4.98	4.30	4.64
2006	4.73	6.02	4.27	4.75
2005	4.22	4.93	4.13	4.57
2004	4.94	4.47	4.46	4.81
2003	4.22	5.34	4.40	4.63
Avg	4.47	4.84	4.07	4.43
Inc on road		0.36		0.36
Var to league			0.40	0.40

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

My question would be when did they decide to move the wall. Obviously they didn’t come up with the idea in a day. Took some time. 

Took about a week.

[eddie83]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Took about a week.

Damn. That’s fast. Put whoever was on that committee on the MASN lawsuit. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I don't believe they did one thing rather than the other. I think they have a particular approach to player acquisition. They've traded for a ton of arms over the last few years. Much more than bats. They do so, I assume, because they think they can get more value drafting bats and then trading them for multiple arms. 

Again, you're ignoring trades here.

Seth Johnson, Chance McDermott, Cano, Nunez, Povich, Rojas. Add in the trades with the Angels and it's clear. The O's get a load of arms from trades and free agent signings, for that matter.

I was taking trades and free agent signings into consideration, but I wasn't factoring in players like GIbson and Irvin because they 1) aren't young and 2) they aren't part of the teams long term future.  Only nine of the team's top 30 prospects are pitchers. How is that a balanced approach to hitter/pitcher development?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I was taking trades and free agent signings into consideration, but I wasn't factoring in players like GIbson and Irvin because they 1) aren't young and 2) they aren't part of the teams long term future.  Only nine of the team's top 30 prospects are pitchers. How is that a balanced approach to hitter/pitcher development?

What’s the right balance?  15?

[HakunaSakata]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What’s the right balance?  15?

Not sure, but if we don't intend to sign notable FA pitchers then it probably needs to be higher than what it is now. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

Not sure, but if we don't intend to sign notable FA pitchers then it probably needs to be higher than what it is now. 

In their defense they don't seem to intend to sign notable FA hitters either.

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Not sure, but if we don't intend to sign notable FA pitchers then it probably needs to be higher than what it is now. 

They will trade for them.