Kyle Bradish 2023

[Say O!]

How did the Bradish thread devolve into another “trade for Dylan Cease or SEA SPs” rabbit hole?  Feels like a reverse Bedard situation to me.

Back on topic, lots of mention about ERA and WAR, but what I am most impressed with Bradish is his raw stuff.  Insanely good.  For starting pitchers in 2023, Best slider in the game by far. And curveball is top 5 as well.  Link to fangraphs Stuff+ leaderboards. 

[banks703]

6 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Bradish (5 years of team control), Grayson (6), Means (1) and Kremer (4) are a very exciting foursome to look forward to for next year, 

This is exactly why I think that it makes sense to go after that truly elite guy to have for 2ish years. Pencil in Corbin Burnes or Cease, or Nola into that rotation and the O's could make the case for the best rotation in baseball. 

I am really high on Seth Johnson and I am hoping that he's rebounded/developed enough to be an option for the O's in 24 should someone go down or falter. In another thread I suggested that his timeline (the TJ sucks for him obviously) with respect to his age could be similar to Bradish. If Johnson debuts at any point next year (outside of the last two weeks of the season) he will debut as a 25 year old, just like KB did last year. I think SJ has BIG upside. I just don't want the O's to push all of their chips into the internal options basket for the rotation in 24. 

I think that they could even dangle Kremer to another club along with prospects to acquire one of those truly elite arms for the rotation. If that happens, then yeah, bring back Gibson to eat innings in his age 36 season. 

The O's have options but to me, the best option is to attempt to upgrade at least one rotation spot this offseason. 

[banks703]

4 minutes ago, Say O! said:

How did the Bradish thread devolve into another “trade for Dylan Cease or SEA SPs” rabbit hole?  Feels like a reverse Bedard situation to me.

Back on topic, lots of mention about ERA and WAR, but what I am most impressed with Bradish is his raw stuff.  Insanely good.  For starting pitchers in 2023, Best slider in the game by far. And curveball is top 5 as well.  Link to fangraphs Stuff+ leaderboards. 

Yeah, I didn't mean to deter from Bradish's excellence this year. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

As a fan I would be believing that the Orioles management are something they are not.   They have four solid starters plus Wells who is good for 15 to 20 starts.  Hall  will be stretched out in ST.  Irvin who has a 3.58 ERA in the 2nd half after they fixed him.  McDermott who is in development at AAA and  will probably be ready by mid season.  

Many didn't believe that the O's could develop Bradish and Kremer the way they have but the O's are a development organization.  They don't spend on FAs unless they have to.   And they don't have to this off season.

That is the teams approach that I have been watching for 5 years.   I don't think they will change.

If you want the O's to spend consider a 3 year contract for Means and 1/12M for Santander.  The O's know those guys fit.

You keep saying this like it's a certainty but I see almost no chance of that being successful. You nd the Orioles need to concede that Hall's best role is in the one he's in right now.

As for Bradish, he's an amazing scouting and development story which is a credit to the Orioles and Bradish himself. He's a completely different pitched than the one acquired in the Bundy deal.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is there a way that Bradish could steal the ERA crown from Cole and Gray with less than a week to go in the season?

Bradish is at 2.86 after last night.  Gray is at 2.80, Cole is at 2.75.  

Cole goes tonight against a Jays team that's fighting for it's playoff life.  I'm not sure how many runs he'd have go give up to get behind Bradish, but it could be close.  

I'm assuming that if we clinch the division tonight or Friday night we're shutting down Bradish, he wouldn't start on Sunday against Boston, right?

I went over this in another thread.  Basically, he’d have to allow 5 ER in 7 innings or less for Bradish to catch him.  4 ER in 5 innings wouldn’t do it.  Also, Sonny Gray is ahead of Bradish and probably won’t pitch again in the regular season.

[Hank Scorpio]

Seems like he really took off once he really adopted the sinker to go along with his cutter-ish 4 seamer. 

Obviously the slider is otherworldly.

If he can really harness a changeup, he'll improve even more.

[dystopia]

32 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Cease's 200k's and the terrible team defense that he pitches in front of suggest otherwise. 

No defense is going to save him from the amount of walks he gives up. 

[Tony-OH]

The development of his sinker this year and the absolutely dominance of his slider (plus-plus pitch at this point) has transformed him from an ok starter to a #2 bordering on #1 TOR guy. Even his curveball has been more effective with him throwing it a 1.5 MPH harder than last year. 

I'll be honest, he very well may scrap the 4-seamer all together unless they feel it sets up other pitches. The sinker actually has below average movement, but I think it tunnels well with his slider and has late movement which confuses the batters.

Bradish improved K%, significantly improved walk percentage, and improved ground ball percentage (thanks to the sinker), have all contributed to him having less runners on which led to 10 of his 14 home runs allowed this year to be solo shots. that keeps him away from those big innings that hurt him last year.

And what may be the most important part of all of this, he's getting stronger as we get deeper into September. That is the mark of the ace. The guy a team counts on in the pennant race and playoffs is when you can make that jump to a TOR. 

Bradish has the pennant race down, so let's see how he performs in the playoffs. 

Either way, he's far out performed even the wildest dreams for him this year by probably pretty much everyone not name's Bradish. 

He's been one of the best stories of this year.

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The development of his sinker this year and the absolutely dominance of his slider (plus-plus pitch at this point) has transformed him from an ok starter to a #2 bordering on #1 TOR guy. Even his curveball has been more effective with him throwing it a 1.5 MPH harder than last year. 

I'll be honest, he very well may scrap the 4-seamer all together unless they feel it sets up other pitches. The sinker actually has below average movement, but I think it tunnels well with his slider and has late movement which confuses the batters.

Bradish improved K%, significantly improved walk percentage, and improved ground ball percentage (thanks to the sinker), have all contributed to him having less runners on which led to 10 of his 14 home runs allowed this year to be solo shots. that keeps him away from those big innings that hurt him last year.

And what may be the most important part of all of this, he's getting stronger as we get deeper into September. That is the mark of the ace. The guy a team counts on in the pennant race and playoffs is when you can make that jump to a TOR. 

Bradish has the pennant race down, so let's see how he performs in the playoffs. 

Either way, he's far out performed even the wildest dreams for him this year by probably pretty much everyone not name's Bradish. 

He's been one of the best stories of this year.

 

 

 

Just curious, why "bordering"? What else does he have to prove? fWAR has him #16 in MLB ahead of Cease, Burnes, Senga, lots of pitchers we would regard as #1. Maybe the only weakness I see is he is in the low range for innings pitched. 

I agree with everything else and can't wait to see what he does in the playoffs. I don't remember what Frobby gave him for the mid year report card but this has to be an A+ year for Bradish.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Just curious, why "bordering"? What else does he have to prove? fWAR has him #16 in MLB ahead of Cease, Burnes, Senga, lots of pitchers we would regard as #1. Maybe the only weakness I see is he is in the low range for innings pitched. 

I agree with everything else and can't wait to see what he does in the playoffs. I don't remember what Frobby gave him for the mid year report card but this has to be an A+ year for Bradish.

 

Quote

And what may be the most important part of all of this, he's getting stronger as we get deeper into September. That is the mark of the ace. The guy a team counts on in the pennant race and playoffs is when you can make that jump to a TOR. 

Bradish has the pennant race down, so let's see how he performs in the playoffs. 

 

[baltfan]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The development of his sinker this year and the absolutely dominance of his slider (plus-plus pitch at this point) has transformed him from an ok starter to a #2 bordering on #1 TOR guy. Even his curveball has been more effective with him throwing it a 1.5 MPH harder than last year. 

I'll be honest, he very well may scrap the 4-seamer all together unless they feel it sets up other pitches. The sinker actually has below average movement, but I think it tunnels well with his slider and has late movement which confuses the batters.

Bradish improved K%, significantly improved walk percentage, and improved ground ball percentage (thanks to the sinker), have all contributed to him having less runners on which led to 10 of his 14 home runs allowed this year to be solo shots. that keeps him away from those big innings that hurt him last year.

And what may be the most important part of all of this, he's getting stronger as we get deeper into September. That is the mark of the ace. The guy a team counts on in the pennant race and playoffs is when you can make that jump to a TOR. 

Bradish has the pennant race down, so let's see how he performs in the playoffs. 

Either way, he's far out performed even the wildest dreams for him this year by probably pretty much everyone not name's Bradish. 

He's been one of the best stories of this year.

 

 

 

I think we are seeing with Grayson and Cano that the Orioles believe pitchers need to pitch to all parts of the zone.  When Grayson was up the first time, he only threw his fastball up in the zone. When he came back, they had him working down in the zone as well as up in the zone.  It has made him more effective along with much better command of all of his pitches.  As for Cano, he is the ultimate sinkerball guy but all of his stuff was down in the zone. Hitters started to home in on specific parts of the zone.  Sure if Cano threw the great sinker or change, that didn't so much matter, but he didn't always execute.  As of late, you can see that they are having Cano intentionally throw up in the zone on occasion.  I am sure that his for eye-level reasons vs them believing his 4 seamer is his best pitch.  

For these reasons I doubt they have him abandon his 4 seamer.  

Edited September 27, 2023 by baltfan
Clarification re: relation to Bradish

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

I think we are seeing with Grayson and Cano that the Orioles believe pitchers need to pitch to all parts of the zone.  When Grayson was up the first time, he only threw his fastball up in the zone. When he came back, they had him working down in the zone as well as up in the zone.  It has made him more effective along with much better command of all of his pitches.  As for Cano, he is the ultimate sinkerball guy but all of his stuff was down in the zone. Hitters started to home in on specific parts of the zone.  Sure if Cano threw the great sinker or change, that didn't so much matter, but he didn't always execute.  As of late, you can see that they are having Cano intentionally throw up in the zone on occasion.  I am sure that his for eye-level reasons vs them believing his 4 seamer is his best pitch.  

I wonder just what the hell happened to Grayson early in the year. He was dominant in the minors last year but then had an injury and lost his form after recovering from that and everyone was searching for an explanation. Then he rights the ship and has been lights out ever since. 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I think we are seeing with Grayson and Cano that the Orioles believe pitchers need to pitch to all parts of the zone.  When Grayson was up the first time, he only threw his fastball up in the zone. When he came back, they had him working down in the zone as well as up in the zone.  It has made him more effective along with much better command of all of his pitches.  As for Cano, he is the ultimate sinkerball guy but all of his stuff was down in the zone. Hitters started to home in on specific parts of the zone.  Sure if Cano threw the great sinker or change, that didn't so much matter, but he didn't always execute.  As of late, you can see that they are having Cano intentionally throw up in the zone on occasion.  I am sure that his for eye-level reasons vs them believing his 4 seamer is his best pitch.  

I've always been a big proponent of changing eyes levels. It was one of the things I saw Zach Davies do so well in Frederick and why I thought he had a much better chance of pitching in the majors than the Orioles organization at the time did. 

I have noticed that they've been move up and down and in and out more. Always a good thing if the pitcher can execute.

[banks703]

31 minutes ago, dystopia said:

No defense is going to save him from the amount of walks he gives up. 

Sure it could.. if he's terrified of letting the ball be put in play then he's pitching to strike out everyone and there's plenty of data that supports that hunting strikeouts leads to pitching more out of the zone which leads to more walks. A good defense behind a pitcher can make a huge difference. 

Look at Bradish's improvements - Walk Rate is down and K% is up. His GB% has increased. EV, Hard Hit% and LD% are up (albeit slightly) from last year but BABIP is down significantly from last year. His defense is making plays behind him. 

 

[Hallas]

8 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I wonder just what the hell happened to Grayson early in the year. He was dominant in the minors last year but then had an injury and lost his form after recovering from that and everyone was searching for an explanation. Then he rights the ship and has been lights out ever since. 

I compared early season Grayson with him last season, and him toward the end of his stint at Norfolk, and it looks like he had a slightly different release angle last year compared to early this year, and he reverted back to his old release angle in Norfolk.  I'm guessing the change was to compensate for the injury. It was pretty slight but I think for pitchers, really subtle changes to mechanics can have profound effects.  For example Cano dropped his arm angle by like 2 degrees and his sinker/changeup went from unhittable to meatball.