Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

January 10, 1991 the O's tried to make an impact trade acquired Glenn Davis from the Astros for three young players Curt Schilling, Steve Finley  and Pete Harnish.  Worst trade the O's ever made.

Trading young talent for a veteran does not always work out.

I think the O's have the talent now to have a playoff, maybe even a WS pitching staff.  GRod will probably be an ace in time.  Bradish, Kremer, Hall, Wells are all young starter talents.   Means is an All Star starter that is projected to be back in July. Gibson is a stop gap.   Irvin is TBD.   Voth can be a starter or a reliever.

I'd rather the O's keep the best young talent the O's have and trade the rest for prospects as they are needed.  Santander is going getting closer to FA and  Stowers or Kjerstad are progress to be his replacement at some point.    Frazier and Gibson are stop gaps on one year contract that may be traded for prospects at the deadline depending on how the O's young players progress.  

This is the same approach Elias has been using up until now with the trades of Mancini,  Lopez and Givens.

IMO there is too much probability of a swing and miss trading a bunch of good prospects of a veteran.  Keep the O's best young talent.

   

It has been reported that he could be ready by July but that would be the earliest point on his return schedule.  That is not the same thing as he is projected to be back in July.

Irvin is also not TBD.  We've ALL been over this with you.  You've seen direct quotes concerning Irvin.  I'd thought you had accepted reality but it looks like your backsliding.

[Sanity Check]

6 hours ago, Jagwar said:

So... I suppose I'm an "arbitrary internetty people"? I've been called worse.  

Maybe I'm not clearly stating my position. I want to be as excited about the pitching prospects in the system as I am about the position prospects. I look at Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Basallo... and totally see them as every day players. Then I look at the pitching in the system. Bradish, Kremer and Wells look promising but they haven't proven they can perform over a full season. Then you have GRod (slam dunk), then Hall (with command questions), then a few maybes in Povich, Johnson and McDermott. I just don't have the same sentiment towards the pitchers. 

So for me, the excitement over the position prospects is tempered by my arbitrary internetty opinion that more pitching needs to be injected into the system, via trade, international signing or draft. 

Just remember, when Houston finally needed the horses on the mound to get them over the top, they then traded from their system to get quality available arms at the deadline (Verlander and Cole) while they were still building their farm system to develop the guys they rely on today. 

I think that blueprint worked.....that's WHEN and HOW you usually end up with a Woodruff or another stud with a couple of years of control from a team that finds itself selling.  I expect that this will be the approach.....if it's not, then I agree, we may not have the right mix of guys to stack up against the best rotations in the playoffs.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It has been reported that he could be ready by July but that would be the earliest point on his return schedule.  That is not the same thing as he is projected to be back in July.

Irvin is also not TBD.  We've ALL been over this with you.  You've seen direct quotes concerning Irvin.  I'd thought you had accepted reality but it looks like your backsliding.

TBD means "to be determined".   Its determined that Irvin will be in the rotation.  Its TBD on how effective he will be.  He could be great.  He could be terrible.  Or anything in between.

The word projected means "estimated or forecast on the basis of current trends or data".   I'd say that is accurate for Means in July.

Edited March 3, 2023 by wildcard

[Roll Tide]

Kudos from Rosenthal?   ….. 

[Three Run Homer]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I like prospects, too, but I think people tend to overrate their chances of success a lot of times.   Urias, Mateo and Mountcastle all debuted in 2020.   Know where they rank in rWAR among position players who debuted that year? 6th, 12th and 13th.  Hays ranks 16th among players who debuted in 2017, despite the fact that he was called up prematurely and was hurt a lot for a couple of years after that.  The odds that any four of our position player prospects (excluding Gunnar) will do as well or better are not as high as you think.  

You are correct that not all prospects pan out, but it's also true that Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad (and of course Gunnar) are more highly regarded by prospect hounds and have a better minor league track record collectively than Urias, Hays, Mateo, Mountcastle , Mullins, Santander and Mancini ever had.  Mountcastle is the only one among our current young veterans who had a lot of national prospect hype in the minors.  

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

You are correct that not all prospects pan out, but it's also true that Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad (and of course Gunnar) are more highly regarded by prospect hounds and have a better minor league track record collectively than Urias, Hays, Mateo, Mountcastle , Mullins, Santander and Mancini ever had.  Mountcastle is the only one among our current young veterans who had a lot of national prospect hype in the minors.  

You are aware that Austin Hays was a 2017 minor league player of the year finalist right?

He put up a .329/.365/.593 season.

 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are aware that Austin Hays was a 2017 minor league player of the year finalist right?

He put up a .329/.365/.593 season.

 

Mateo made more top (annual) 100 lists than Ortiz and Westburg combined.

 

[emmett16]

18 hours ago, Jagwar said:

So... I suppose I'm an "arbitrary internetty people"? I've been called worse.  

Maybe I'm not clearly stating my position. I want to be as excited about the pitching prospects in the system as I am about the position prospects. I look at Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Basallo... and totally see them as every day players. Then I look at the pitching in the system. Bradish, Kremer and Wells look promising but they haven't proven they can perform over a full season. Then you have GRod (slam dunk), then Hall (with command questions), then a few maybes in Povich, Johnson and McDermott. I just don't have the same sentiment towards the pitchers. 

So for me, the excitement over the position prospects is tempered by my arbitrary internetty opinion that more pitching needs to be injected into the system, via trade, international signing or draft. 

Lol.  No.  Was referring to the “talking heads” or I guess more appropriately said now, the “typing heads”? 

I appreciate everyone’s contributions to this site.  It annoys me when people put others down and intentionally attack people.

My point was, you shouldn’t put all your faith in the evaluators that make their money off putting out stuff to read.  
 

There is pitching talent in the system regardless of what the “experts” say.  At the end of the day it’s an opinion until the player goes out and makes it happen. 

[emmett16]

16 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Agree with this, but with one caveat. I'm fine with them taking a position player heavy approach to player development as long as they use some of those resources to trade for pitching OR open up the wallet and sign some notable FA pitchers. Since the team (up to this point) has done neither of these things I think it's fair to criticize their approach a bit. Especially if pitching turns out to be their Achilles heel this season. 

People can argue all day out how much they like our young pitchers, but the reality is that excluding Rodriguez the majority of them have low ceilings and even lower floors. I've soured on Hall quite a bit too because he's shown no signs of being able to get his walks under control and apparently the Orioles have too since he's not even being considered for a rotation spot. 

Hall is going to have a very successful career as a MLB pitcher, barring injuries.  I’m legitimately confused on how one could sour on a lefty with 3 plus pitches.   
 

The fact that a lefty with 3 plus pitches isn’t being considered for the rotation this year is a bad thing? Or….just perhaps, that’s a good thing.
 

Edited March 4, 2023 by emmett16

[HakunaSakata]

7 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Hall is going to have a very successful career as a MLB pitcher, barring injuries.  I’m legitimately confused on how one could sour on a lefty with 3 plus pitches.   
 

The fact that a lefty with 3 plus pitches isn’t being considered for the rotation this year is a bad thing? Or….just perhaps, that’s a good thing.
 

Having three plus pitches is great, but Hall's minor league walk rates tells me he's not ready for a MLB rotation spot. And it has nothing to do with the team's talent / rotational depth. He's shown little or no signs of improvement with his walk rate in five minor league seasons. So yeah I'm starting to sour on him a bit as being an integral part of the rotation (and view him more as a reliever) until he shows some improvement and learns how to be a pitcher and not just a thrower. If the team truly thinks that he still profiles as a starter he should start the season in AAA because they aren't in a position to let him learn on the fly at the major league level. 

For context, Dylan Cease had by far the worst walk rate in MLB last season at 3.89. Yes, he had a great season, but most experts view it as unstainable and expect a regression to his 2021 numbers (i.e., a 4.00ish ERA). If we assume that everyone's stats typically gets a bit worse when they jump from the minors to the majors I'd say that  Hall needs to get his minor league walk rate down to the low 3.0 range before I'd consider him for a major league rotation spot. 

D.L. Hall's Walk Rate (by season)

2017 - 8.7
2018 - 4.0
2019 - 6.0
2021 - 4.5
2022 - 7.3

[LookinUp]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are aware that Austin Hays was a 2017 minor league player of the year finalist right?

He put up a .329/.365/.593 season.

 

A .036 spread between BA and OBP is a problem.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

A .036 spread between BA and OBP is a problem.

That statement has no relevance to the discussion.  Hays was lauded.

[LookinUp]

But not for the right reasons. And I like Hayes, and Mountcastle, and Mullins, but none of them have the on-base percentage profile that the new guys do.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

But not for the right reasons. And I like Hayes, and Mountcastle, and Mullins, but none of them have the on-base percentage profile that the new guys do.

Once again, no relevance.

Also, you can overdo the on-base profile a bit.

A guy with a good walk rate that doesn't hit for power or batting average isn't better than a guy that can put up .329/.365/.593.

Would you rather have Hays or DJ Stewart?  Stewart has a nice .114 gap, should we bring him back?

[emmett16]

49 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Having three plus pitches is great, but Hall's minor league walk rates tells me he's not ready for a MLB rotation spot. And it has nothing to do with the team's talent / rotational depth. He's shown little or no signs of improvement with his walk rate in five minor league seasons. So yeah I'm starting to sour on him a bit as being an integral part of the rotation (and view him more as a reliever) until he shows some improvement and learns how to be a pitcher and not just a thrower. If the team truly thinks that he still profiles as a starter he should start the season in AAA because they aren't in a position to let him learn on the fly at the major league level. 

For context, Dylan Cease had by far the worst walk rate in MLB last season at 3.89. Yes, he had a great season, but most experts view it as unstainable and expect a regression to his 2021 numbers (i.e., a 4.00ish ERA). If we assume that everyone's stats typically gets a bit worse when they jump from the minors to the majors I'd say that  Hall needs to get his minor league walk rate down to the low 3.0 range before I'd consider him for a major league rotation spot. 

D.L. Hall's Walk Rate (by season)

2017 - 8.7
2018 - 4.0
2019 - 6.0
2021 - 4.5
2022 - 7.3

I’m aware.  Worked out well for Randy Johnson.  Worst case scenario he becomes an impact reliever.  I’m not worried about him having an impact whatsoever.