Jordan Westburg 2023

[orioles22]

I like Ortiz and Cowser quite a bit and expect them to be our second baseman and left fielder for the next 5-10 years. Whether Ortiz starts with the Orioles are 25 or 26 and whether he is still listed as a project don't seem to be that relevant to me, and I don't see how another 2-3 months at Norfolk would hurt in the big picture. I'm OK if they bring both up tomorrow, but I can also wait until July or August if it takes that long to finalize a trade to supplement our starting pitching.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I like Ortiz and Cowser quite a bit and expect them to be our second baseman and left fielder for the next 5-10 years. Whether Ortiz starts with the Orioles are 25 or 26 and whether he is still listed as a project don't seem to be that relevant to me, and I don't see how another 2-3 months at Norfolk would hurt in the big picture. I'm OK if they bring both up tomorrow, but I can also wait until July or August if it takes that long to finalize a trade to supplement our starting pitching.

The problem with that is that he loses value at that age. 

Also, I struggle with the logic in what you are saying, “you think he can be our second baseman for 5-10 years, but you don’t care if he stays down until he’s 26”. In 5 years he will be what 31? And in 10 years 36? Do you think it’s reasonable to expect that he will be just as good/productive at those ages? 

It just seams logic suggests that given most players prime ages, it may be wise to use those years to help the club or trade them while they still hold very good prospect value? No?

[orioles22]

I don't know how well he will age, so that's why I said 5-10. There are plenty of players through the years who are still good at 36. He's not had a full season at AAA yet, so I don't have a problem with him gaining a few more months of experience. I was also OK with him staying once he was called up. I'd like to see those guys put up monster numbers in AAA like the 70s, as someone mentioned earlier on Grich and Baylor. I'd take another Grich, but I just hope we can keep Ortiz longer if he's as good.

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I don't know how well he will age, so that's why I said 5-10. There are plenty of players through the years who are still good at 36. He's not had a full season at AAA yet, so I don't have a problem with him gaining a few more months of experience. I was also OK with him staying once he was called up. I'd like to see those guys put up monster numbers in AAA like the 70s, as someone mentioned earlier on Grich and Baylor. I'd take another Grich, but I just hope we can keep Ortiz longer if he's as good.

The finances of the game are much different than the 70’s. Unfortunately, things cannot be managed like they were then. I’m almost certain that he will be up or traded by the deadline if not sooner. There is starting to be a systemic logjam for our prospects as it is already. If guys don’t graduate from AAA after a while, it has a ripple effect in that guys can graduate from AA and then A, etc. It wouldn’t be that big of a problem if it was just one guy because you could always move the other guy to another position. But when you are jammed pack like we are in positional players, there is really no place to put them.

[Just Regular]

I did look back at Grich as Westburg is circa ~600 AAA plate appearances grinding towards Grich's ~900.

It ended up being more of a High School v. College reminder.

Westburg 2.18.1999 is ~24.2 years old today.

Grich 1.15.1949 even with the long wait had an Age-23 6-win season on the scoreboard in '72.

[Fiver6565]

Three run jack in the first tonight. One way or another gotta get this kid up. 

[orioles22]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

The finances of the game are much different than the 70’s. Unfortunately, things cannot be managed like they were then. I’m almost certain that he will be up or traded by the deadline if not sooner. There is starting to be a systemic logjam for our prospects as it is already. If guys don’t graduate from AAA after a while, it has a ripple effect in that guys can graduate from AA and then A, etc. It wouldn’t be that big of a problem if it was just one guy because you could always move the other guy to another position. But when you are jammed pack like we are in positional players, there is really no place to put them.

We have a great AAA team, but the others are average at best. I don't really see very many players at AA tearing it up at this point.

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

The finances of the game are much different than the 70’s. Unfortunately, things cannot be managed like they were then. I’m almost certain that he will be up or traded by the deadline if not sooner. There is starting to be a systemic logjam for our prospects as it is already. If guys don’t graduate from AAA after a while, it has a ripple effect in that guys can graduate from AA and then A, etc. It wouldn’t be that big of a problem if it was just one guy because you could always move the other guy to another position. But when you are jammed pack like we are in positional players, there is really no place to put them.

The log jam stops at Norfolk.  6 of our top 8 prospects are in Norfolk.  Mayo & Prieto in AA IF and Kjerstad in OF.  Not a ton of talent/prospects there.  A+ is similar.  The depth they have at AAA is fantastic.  Injuries will occur, players will not perform, and a trade will be made.  I don’t see a “systemic logjam” and oh, by the way - sign me up for such a well of talent.

[Bemorewins]

36 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

We have a great AAA team, but the others are average at best. I don't really see very many players at AA tearing it up at this point.

Kjerstad??

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

The log jam stops at Norfolk.  6 of our top 8 prospects are in Norfolk.  Mayo & Prieto in AA IF and Kjerstad in OF.  Not a ton of talent/prospects there.  A+ is similar.  The depth they have at AAA is fantastic.  Injuries will occur, players will not perform, and a trade will be made.  I don’t see a “systemic logjam” and oh, by the way - sign me up for such a well of talent.

This is as much systemic talent as you can possibly have. It’s NEVER going to be this good again. As I mentioned in other threads, there are only 2 other orgs in the sport who have 7 top 100 prospects. We have NINE and that’s after graduating Adley and Gunnar who were both the game’s #1 prospect. At the end of this season, Holiday could be another #1 overall prospect, at worst top 2/3. Grayson is about to graduate but then Basallo will join that list of the top 100 to still keep us at 9. 

There is nowhere for AAA major league ready players to play on the big league roster like Ortiz and Westberg. 

I hear you saying “sign me up for that”. Well everyone wants to be bursting at the seems with talent too to bottom. But no org ever has like we are.

Of course, we all know that the talent is improperly unbalanced to the positional side, which is where the logjam is coming from.

If the AAA infield and outfield doesn’t open up spots then Mayo, Prieto, and Kjerstad can’t move up, etc.

I believe Elias built this team and adopted this draft strategy with the understanding that this would be a real possibility. And that he would use some of the excess to trade what he didn’t draft….. top of the rotation pitching.

[Bemorewins]

36 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

The log jam stops at Norfolk.  6 of our top 8 prospects are in Norfolk.  Mayo & Prieto in AA IF and Kjerstad in OF.  Not a ton of talent/prospects there.  A+ is similar.  The depth they have at AAA is fantastic.  Injuries will occur, players will not perform, and a trade will be made.  I don’t see a “systemic logjam” and oh, by the way - sign me up for such a well of talent.

By the way, A ball has Basallo, Holliday, Creed Willems, As well as, Beavers, Wagner, and Fabian (last year’s high draft picks). They re all going to need to be given chances at promotions too.

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

By the way, A ball has Basallo, Holliday, Creed Willems, As well as, Beavers, Wagner, and Fabian (last year’s high draft picks). They re all going to need to be given chances at promotions too.

That grouping will be in AA by end of year (if they perform consistently at an high level)and  pushing AAA the following year.   The players in AAA this year will be in MLB next year (for us or someone else).  I don’t see any log jam.  I see talented players steadily moving up the line.  We have been incredibly lucky to avoid injuries this year AND last year.   I doubt that continues.  

[orioles22]

28 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Kjerstad??

He's played a month of AA ball and hitting .263. He's fine where he is, especially after all he's been through. There is no reason to rush these guys like that.  Elias has promoted guys pretty quickly, but it's barely May.

[Mooreisbetter27]

57 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

He's played a month of AA ball and hitting .263. He's fine where he is, especially after all he's been through. There is no reason to rush these guys like that.  Elias has promoted guys pretty quickly, but it's barely May.

.273 and .968 ops. Nothing to sneeze at. 

[orioles22]

Yeah, .273, but still no reason to rush a guy who missed as much as he did. I think best-case scenario is a half season of each this year.