Adley Rutschman 2023

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not  a top 20 player this year by any measure.

By league I'm referring to solely the American.

And by strict WAR measures, no he's not.

I can assure you though, if you gave a smart GM the right to pick his top guys from the entire American league, Adley would be gone in the first 20 picks.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think he's been as good on defense this year.

The power is the big dropoff, for me.  Bigger than the defense.

As Aristotle breaks down below, he's literally like 2 HRs and 4 doubles away from having the exact same power numbers as last year.  It's not nearly as pronounced as some are making it to be.

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Pickles said:

As Aristotle breaks down below, he's literally like 2 HRs and 4 doubles away from having the exact same power numbers as last year.  It's not nearly as pronounced as some are making it to be.

What are you talking about?

Yeah, two homers and four doubles away from matching last years power numbers in ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY NINE MORE AT BATS.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

What are you talking about?

Yeah, two homers and four doubles away from matching last years power numbers in ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY NINE MORE AT BATS.

I'm talking about rate stats.  His ISO would be identical to last year's if he had 16 more total bases.  That's 2 HR and 4 doubles over a six month season.  Yes, that's a drop off, but it isn't some gaping difference.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Pickles said:

As Aristotle breaks down below, he's literally like 2 HRs and 4 doubles away from having the exact same power numbers as last year.  It's not nearly as pronounced as some are making it to be.

If he had 2 homers and 4 more doubles, his slugging would be 428. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm talking about rate stats.  His ISO would be identical to last year's if he had 16 more total bases.  That's 2 HR and 4 doubles over a six month season.  Yes, that's a drop off, but it isn't some gaping difference.

When I tell you two homers and four doubles over 139 more at bats, do you think I am NOT talking about rate stats?

[Sports Guy]

He had 52 singles and 35 doubles last year.

This year he has 101 singles and 24 doubles.

Basically he hit a double for every 1.4 singles last year. This year, for every 4.2 singles he hits, he hits 1 double.

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he had 2 homers and 4 more doubles, his slugging would be 428. 

Can I see your math?

Because my math has it at .447, which would give him a higher slugging than last year.

He currently has 226 total bases in 537 PAs for a slg% of .417.  However, an additional 16 total bases, gives him 240 in the same 537 PAs for a .447 slg %.

Am I in error here?

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he had 2 homers and 4 more doubles, his slugging would be 428. 

I think Pickles is giving him six more hits (16 bases), you're just giving him the extra bases.

To hit .445 SLG, he would need 239 total bases right now and he is at 224. Right now he is off by 15 total bases. That can be explained by so many things.

If he was hitting .600 in Sept I would be buy into this overusage narrative but he is hitting .740 with his worst month back in June.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

When I tell you two homers and four doubles over 139 more at bats, do you think I am NOT talking about rate stats?

I made my post in conjunction with Aristotle's and specifically cited it.  I apologize if it was unclear.

But again, unless my math is wrong, and that's totally possible, we're literally talking about a handful of extra base hits over the course of the year.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Can I see your math?

Because my math has it at .447, which would give him a higher slugging than last year.

He currently has 226 total bases in 537 PAs for a slg% of .417.  However, an additional 16 total bases, gives him 240 in the same 537 PAs for a .447 slg %.

Am I in error here?

No, you are right. I’m not sure what I did. Must have fat fingered something with the at bat total I guess.

[Going Underground]

 Home: 308.390.498.888

Away ; .232.345.345.690

 

Adley's home and away stats are interesting.  Does have more doubles on the road. Has only hit 6 homers on the road but does have more RBI'S  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I made my post in conjunction with Aristotle's and specifically cited it.  I apologize if it was unclear.

But again, unless my math is wrong, and that's totally possible, we're literally talking about a handful of extra base hits over the course of the year.

The numbers show he is just hitting a lot more singles. He’s not driving the ball. He’s not getting extra base hits. His XBH frequency is way down. 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Going Underground said:

 Home: 308.390.498.888

Away ; .232.345.345.690

 

Adley's home and away stats are interesting.  Does have more doubles on the road. Has only hit 6 homers on the road but does have more RBI'S  

He has also reversed his LHP/RHP splits from last year. This year's splits are not as drastic but it's weird. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He has also reversed his LHP/RHP splits from last year. This year's splits are not as drastic but it's weird. 

I don't think that is uncommon for switch hitters.