Has Vavra played his way into a starting 2B job?

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

IMO if anybody played like they deserved a starting spot it was Westburg.

I agree but he has a service time issue that has to be met before he is promoted.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

Vavra has been more consistently good on offense this spring, sure, but spring batting stats certainly aren't the only consideration.

And the reality is that they shouldn’t be any consideration.

I like Vavra. I wanted him to play over Odor last year. But the bottom line is that he must hit for power if the OBP is going to be solid. When we start seeing that in games that actually mean something against real ML pitchers, I will feel better about his offensive upside.

He also has to demonstrate that he can play well defensively at one or more positions. Not sure Vavra is a guy you want DH’ibg 400 at bats although if he can sustain a 350+ OBP, you might consider it.

[luismatos4prez]

Some guys with high OBPs flame out in the majors. They have good eyes and discipline to lay off wild minor leaguers, but they can't catch up when ML pitchers challenge them in the zone. DJ Stewart and Joey Rickard are two examples that come to mind.  I think Vavra will be a similar caliber of hitter, though with some ability to play the IF.

[Aristotelian]

50 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Some guys with high OBPs flame out in the majors. They have good eyes and discipline to lay off wild minor leaguers, but they can't catch up when ML pitchers challenge them in the zone. DJ Stewart and Joey Rickard are two examples that come to mind.  I think Vavra will be a similar caliber of hitter, though with some ability to play the IF.

I thought of Joey Rickard as a comp too. A ceiling comp might be DJ Lemahieu, at least with the bat. Lemahieu probably never gets a chance if he wasn't a plus defensive 2B, but maybe he should. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

He should start over Frazier, but that’s a low bar to hurdle seeing how bad Frazier is. But Frazier isn’t being paid to ride the bench. 

Why are so many people pre-judging that Frazier will be bad?  He’s a 12 WAR career player who had a 4 WAR season in 2021.   Sure he had a bad year in 2022, but it’s not predetermined at all that he’ll be bad this year.   

Mind you, I’m not saying I know he won’t be bad.  I’m just saying that we need to wait and see.   
 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

Why are so many people pre-judging that Frazier will be bad?  He’s a 12 WAR career player who had a 4 WAR season in 2021.   Sure he had a bad year in 2022, but it’s not predetermined at all that he’ll be bad this year.   

Mind you, I’m not saying I know he won’t be bad.  I’m just saying that we need to wait and see.   
 

Based strictly on the idea that Frazier is at a point where he isn't magically going to become a better player while Vavra is on the upside of his career.

Playing the "wait and see" card is the safe and obvious call here.  But if we're into predicting and pontificating (which is, like, 75%+ of what goes on this site), I think Frazier will make us pine for Rougned Odor.  Same player at a fraction of the cost, plus we didn't ever have to see Rougned Odor in the outfield.  

[spleen1015]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why are so many people pre-judging that Frazier will be bad?  He’s a 12 WAR career player who had a 4 WAR season in 2021.   Sure he had a bad year in 2022, but it’s not predetermined at all that he’ll be bad this year.   

Mind you, I’m not saying I know he won’t be bad.  I’m just saying that we need to wait and see.   
 

It's a combo of folks not liking that he was signed in the first place and his bat sucked in spring training.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:

It's a combo of folks not liking that he was signed in the first place and his bat sucked in spring training.

There is a recency bias too.  Is he more likely to repeat 2022 or 2021?

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

There is a recency bias too.  Is he more likely to repeat 2022 or 2021?

The most likely scenario is he’ll be somewhere between them, and a bit below his career average.  But there’s a million ways this could go.  

Like most people here, I didn’t like the Frazier deal, and don’t understand why the O’s signed him from a strategic point of view.   But I won’t let that bias my judgment of the player.   We’ll see how he plays.  He’s almost certain to be a noticeable upgrade over Odor, though obviously that’s a low bar.  
 

[spleen1015]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The most likely scenario is he’ll be somewhere between them, and a bit below his career average.  But there’s a million ways this could go.  

Like most people here, I didn’t like the Frazier deal, and don’t understand why the O’s signed him from a strategic point of view.   But I won’t let that bias my judgment of the player.   We’ll see how he plays.  He’s almost certain to be a noticeable upgrade over Odor, though obviously that’s a low bar.  
 

Yeah, Frobby, but you're one of the most level headed, objective posters on the internet.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Yeah, Frobby, but you're one of the most level headed, objective posters on the internet.

Have you seen ANGRY Frobby?  Doesn't happen often but when it does...hooo boy.

[now]

Cue the pivot to Vavra in RF over Stowers!

[UMDTerrapins]

I’ve wondered on several occasions if we signed Frazier with the assumption that a deal was going to go through that ultimately didn’t. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Have you seen ANGRY Frobby?  Doesn't happen often but when it does...hooo boy.

 

[sportsfan8703]

I want to like Vavra, but I see a guy that has no arm, no power, no speed, and really doesn’t threaten the defense. I’m not saying he’s done. But he’s not the best fit as a LH hitter for this team.